HVK Archives: The writing on the wall; and a comment
The writing on the wall; and a comment - Communalism Combat
Nikhil Wagle
()
1997 March
Title : The writing on the wall; and a comment
Author : Nikhil Wagle
Publication : Communalism Combat
Date : March 1997
The out come concluded elections to the Bombay Municipal
Corporation has shocked many- It was generally believed that this
round of polls would be crucial for the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance.
The present government was voted to power in March 1995. About 15
months later, in May-June, 1996, came the Lok Sabha elections. On
both occasions the electorate expressed their anger against the
Congress by extending solid support to the Sena and the BJP.
But, subsequently, in the last six months, the people's
disenchantment with the saffron alliance seemed all too apparent.
The Ramesh Kini affair, the controversial Michael Jackson show,
serious charges of corruption against several ministers, the
irregularities involved in the free housing schemes for the poor,
bogus schemes like jhunka bhakhar (cheap meals for the poor), all
these had sullied the image of the coalition government. The
recent daylight murder of trade union leader Dr. Datta Samant had
also raised questions about the law and order situation.
It is for all these reasons that many expected the electorate to
give a shock treatment to the ruling alliance. But what happened
was quite the reverse. With the exception of the corporations in
Pune and in Pimpri Chinchwad, the alliance has improved its
position everywhere else.
The credit for this 'miracle' is being attributed to Bal Thackeray.
For the Sena chief, this election was a matter of personal
prestige. He had called upon the electorate to deliver their
judgement on the charges against him through the ballot box.
Thackeray treated the civic elections with the same seriousness
with which his party had contested the assembly and parliamentary
elections earlier. Poll-related advertisements in newspapers were
one index of the Sena-BJP's earnestness.
In contrast, those who call themselves "secular" were totally
unprepared for the battle of the ballot. They were all fully aware
of the way the Sena-BJP alliance benefited from the division of
"secular" votes in the 1995 assembly and 1996 Lok Sabha polls.
Despite this, these parties failed to arrive at any electoral
understanding among themselves. The leaders of these parties
remained fast asleep while the Sena chief conducted a vigorous
campaign.
Over the last six months, the overwhelming majority of newspapers
had raised a storm of criticism against the saffron alliance. The
opposition parties assumed that they would automatically benefit
from this. But parties need an effective machinery if mass
discontent articulated through newspapers is to be converted into
votes.
It is because the opposition parties rallied together in 1977 and
1989 that the anti-Congress mood translated itself into votes. But
obviously, the "secular' forces in Maharashtra have failed to draw
any lessons from past experience. That is why there was no credible
alternative before the voters to the Sena and the BJP.
In the 1992 civic elections in Bombay, there was no electoral
understanding between the Sena and the BJP, while the Congress and
the Republican Party of India fought the elections together.
Ayodhya had yet to happen and Muslims, the traditional supporters
of the Congress, were not yet alienated from the party.
This time there was no understanding between the Congress and the
RPI. As a result, the dalit voter stayed away from the Congress and
as in case of the earlier assembly and Lok Sabha polls, Muslims
supported the candidates of Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party.
It is this splintering of votes that benefited the Sena-BJP
alliance in a big way. In the 1992 civic polls, the Sena and the
BJP had won 70 and 13 seats respectively. This time, the Sena has
bagged 103 while the BJP got 26 seats. In other words, the combine
increased their tally by 46 seats. And the "secular" parties lost
between 55 and 60 seats purely because of a division of votes. The
civic elections have shown once again that the "secular" forces
cannot out perform the saffron alliance until they unite.
In this election, the voter turnout was only 46 per cent in Bombay.
In many places, educated middle-class voters did not bother to
vote. This section was decidedly unhappy with the Sena-BJP
coalition. But because of the lack of a proper alternative they
remained inactive. The Sena and the BJP on the other hand could
count on its committed votes.
The Shiv Sena has been a force to reckon with in Bombay since 1968.
In fact its schooling in politics was through the experience of
contesting civic polls. The party has its shakha in 221 municipal
wards in the city. Whether an election is won or lost, these
shakhas always remain "active". The negative side of this sainik
activity is known to all. The dual character of the party is
evident from its questionable activities on the one hand and
running of ambulances on the other.
In the last 30 years, the anti-Sena forces have failed to evolve an
organised and constructive response. Not a single party has built
any organisational machinery or engaged in sustained activity. The
Sena has created its committed voters through its organisational
machinery (shakhas) and it is these voters who have ensured the
Sena's victory this time.
>From a secular perspective, the matter of greatest concern is the
Muslim support to the Sena-BJP combine. In Behrampada (Bandra) in
Bombay, a Sena candidate emerged victorious. This ward has a Muslim
majority and was the worst affected during the 1992-93 riots. In
Nagpur, too, BJP candidates have won from areas with a substantial
Muslim presence.
Doubtless, these Muslim voters must have asked themselves that if
"secular" forces are not able to ensure their security, then why
not rely on the Sena-BJP? Be it the minorities or any other
section of society, they will turn towards a party only if they are
of some consequence to them in their daily life.
In this context, it will be worth investigating to what extent
"secular" forces were of any use to the riot-affected people of
Behrampada. The role, if any, of these parties in rehabilitation
work of the riot-victims also needs to be examined. Who will deny
that though several voluntary groups were engaged in rehabilitation
work, the "secular" parties were nowhere in the picture?
It should not be surprising if the "secular" parties pay for their
inaction throughout the country in the next Lok Sabha polls. The
performance of the BJP and its allies in the recently concluded
by-elections is a pointer in this direction. The BJP has evidently
grown in strength in Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, U.
P., Maharashtra and elsewhere. An opinion poll conducted by India
Today in January concluded that if elections were held then, the
BJP and its allies would have bagged 240 Lok Sabha seats against
the 194 they got in mid 1996. In terms of votes polled, their vote
percentage has gone up by over four per cent.
To keep the BJP out of power at the Centre, 13 parties had come
together on a non-communal plank. But the "secular" Deve Gowda led
government has done little in the last eight months to inspire
confidence. Corruption, price rise, unemployment, stability, on
each of these fronts the government has disappointed the
electorate.
On several occasions in the past eight months, Deve Gowda has left
people wondering whether he at all has a national perspective. In
such a situation, the average voter begins to wonder whether it
would not be a better idea to back the BJP's Atal Behari Vajpayee.
This is a challenge before "secular" parties who are fast losing
people's confidence.
(The writer, an unsparing critic of Hindutva, is editor of the
Marathi daily Apia Mahanagar)
COMMENT:
This is yet another attempt by the psecs to wash away their
responsibility of the mess that has been created due to their own
doing. It is very easy to blame the psec political parties. The
very accusation - viz. that the psec parties have failed to reach
out to the people - can be easily made against these psec
intellectuals. They have been contented to hold seminars in
five-star hotels in urban areas, and have lost completely in touch
with what is happening amongst the masses. It is for this reason
that Shri Wagle opens his article by saying the election results
has shocked many. The 'many' that he refers to is the psecs of his
variety, and the ones that he uses as his reference point.
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