archive: After the Kargil crisis Pakistan finds itself in a lose-lose
After the Kargil crisis Pakistan finds itself in a lose-lose
Ramesh Thakur
The Asian Age
July 14, 1999
Title: After the Kargil crisis Pakistan finds itself in a lose-lose
situation
Author: Ramesh Thakur
Publication: The Asian Age
Date: July 14, 1999
After the fight over Kashmir, India has an unprecedented opportunity
to seize the moral high ground and take the issue off the
international agenda. For the first time, there is universal
understanding of India's position. There is also praise for New
Delhi's restraint in the face of grave provocation.
The core facts are now broadly accepted. Within the last couple of
years, the Pakistani military began preparations to launch armed
incursions across the Line of Control. What remains unclear is
whether it did so as a rogue force, or with the government's
approval. The motives of the armed forces in Pakistan are also open
to speculation. Perhaps they feared that normalised relations would
strip away their dominance in affairs of state. Perhaps they expected
that the caretaker government in India would be unable to coordinate a
forceful response. Perhaps they hoped that they would end up in a
win-win situation. Either they would succeed in altering the Line of
Control permanently to their advantage by cutting off a major portion
of Indian Kashmir; or else the conflict would become
internationalised.
Instead Pakistan finds itself trapped in a lose-lose situation. The
conflict has indeed drawn international attention, but on India's
terms. The United States, Britain, Russia and most of the
international community have made it clear that Pakistan is to blame
for the flare-up. China has moved from a position of neutrality to
one of alignment with the international mainstream. Beijing is
unhappy at the prospect of yet another front being opened up for US
diplomacy, this time much closer to its borders. Nor is China happy
at the prospect of Islamic fundamentalist influence radiating from
Afghanistan. Rarely has Pakistan been so isolated.
Pakistani miscalculations are only one part of the explanation for the
international response. Just as important is the perception that
India had taken a calculated risk in initiating the diplomacy that
appeared to produce a breakthrough in March toward better relations
with Pakistan.
The show of restraint by India over Kashmir also heightens the
perception that India is a mature and responsible country. Far from
weakening India, therefore, the diplomacy has paid handsome
international dividends. The world has stressed its conviction in the
sanctity of Kashmir's Line of Control. New Delhi should therefore
issue a unilateral declaration converting the line into the
international border. It should call upon Pakistan for a general
demilitarisation in a 10 to 20-kilometres corridor.
In a recent article the former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto
made an important confession. Holding Indian-Pakistani relations
hostage to the single issue of Kashmir had been a mistake, she wrote.
The cause of mutual peace and prosperity would have been advanced by
consolidating relations on other fronts. That remains the best
course. Ironically, Pakistan would have gained more if it had
followed such a policy over the last 52 years.
By history and geography, the fates of India and Pakistan are tied
together. They can work to improve the living standards and. quality
of life of their two peoples; or they can fight to keep each other at
the bottom of the international league.
(The writer is the vice rector of the United Nations University in
Tokyo)
By arrangement with the International Herald Tribune
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