Author: P. M. Kamath
Publication: Free Press Journal
Date: Oct. 19, 2001
Though India was first to have offered
help to the US, it is in the fitness of things that the US should use Pakistan
rather than India in its immediate aim of bringing to books terrorists
involved in the attacks against them. Geopolitical location, access to
Taliban and ability to share intelligence on Osama bin Laden- all favour
Pakistan rather than India.
But these attacks started on Sunday
(October 7) have their immediate and long-term effects on India's problems
with Pakistan- promoted cross-border terrorism. Even after the bombings
started, Pakistan President, Musharraf tried to insulate his terrorism
in Kashmir as having nothing to do with Afghanistan. As a matter of fact,
he has set up terrorist training camps in Afghanistan. This gives him the
benefit of plausible deniability.
Some of the immediate positive effects
on India's terrorism- related security threats could be anticipated. First,
the US attacks might lead to a replacement of Taliban government in Afghanistan.
A broad-based government in Afghanistan would result in closing down all
Pakistan-promoted terrorist camps in that country. This should help India
in choking down the foreign sources of terrorism; in turn, helping to control
disgruntled elements in Kashmir valley and bringing them into mainstream.
Second, if India still thinks that
Pakistan has continued their training camps in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir
(POK) territory, India will be justified in conducting surgical strikes
at those camps. The US strikes have created much-needed international environment
to support India. It must be made clear to the world opinion that an attack
against POK territory is not a violation of Pakistan's territorial integrity
as the area belongs to Jammu & Kashmir, which had joined India.
Third, the crisis should help India
to inject some vital strength into its spine. If Musharraf could place
a staunch supporter of Taliban in Islamic Pakistan, secular India can also
discipline Shahi Imam of Jumma Masjid in Delhi for his advocacy of support
to Taliban in India. There are enough provisions in Indian law permitting
such action.
However, there are also possibilities
of immediate negative effects on the security of Indian polity and society.
As a result of Indian extension of unsolicited public support to the US,
and Taliban's threat to attack any one who supports the US, the Jihadi
forces still might attack targets in India. One should remember that attack
on the Legislative Assembly building of Jammu & Kashmir (J & K)
cannot merely be considered as an act by desperate forces against democracy,
but it is a warning shot against India for its support to the US. This
calls for extra vigilance by the Indian external security forces as well
as forces dealing with internal security.
What are the long-term effects of
the US attack on Afghanistan on India? Going by the proclamations of intentions
of the US policy makers and analysis of their perceptions, it can be reasonably
surmised that the US and the West will take steps to curb finances of the
terrorist outfits operating in J & K. It is a fact that all these terrorist
outfits are interconnected and grow like amoeba. In their current thinking
regarding long-term threat from China and perception of building closer
linkages with India, the US cannot ignore security concerns of India. Their
economic approach to India as a growing market for the US goods also makes
them to side with India.
But there could be long-term negative
security implications for India. Pakistan's public cooperation with the
US, spells dangers for Musharraf personally and for Pakistan collectively.
While some of the prominent Islamic states like Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt
have joined the global efforts to combat terrorism, it is only Pakistan
that is directly and actively involved in the US war.
Pakistan by all accounts, has joined
in it under duress. The US has worries about Pakistani nuclear weapons
eventually falling in the hands of Islamic terrorists. It is reported that
President Bush did not even give time for Musharraf to think. If he had
demurred, it would have been construed as that he is not joining against
the global war on terrorism. Bush had any way made it clear that those
who are not with them are with the terrorists. Was there a US threat to
Pakistan's nuclear assets?
But now that he has joined the US-led
coalition against terrorism, as the war lingers on, he is bound to face
a threat to his regime from Islamic extremists, who according to him are
only 15 percent of the population. But he has already called for a quick
end of the military attack. How are the forty percent extremely religious
minded personnel within the armed forces going to react? The report is
that he has already reshuffled some officers in his pack. Yet threat is
real for Musharraf's regime. The pro-Taliban forces have already come on
the streets.
If he goes, India will not shed
tears. But India will find either a Talibanised Pakistan or a Pakistan
in civil strife. Both these options pose an extremely dangerous situation
on our border.
The US and Pakistan share a fifty-fifty
percent responsibility for the birth of Taliban and for the entire Afghan
situation of today. If Pakistan also goes the same way, the US alone will
be responsible for it, unless the US also works simultaneously to secularise
Pakistani polity and society.
