Author: Richard Fisher
Publication: Washington Times
Date: October 21, 2001
URL: http://www.washtimes.com/commentary/20011021-21596200.htm
While the United States is correct
to seek China's assistance in what will be a long war against terrorism,
it should harbor no illusions that China will share all of the same goals
in this fight, or that China will cease being a longer term adversary.
Yes, Chinese President Jiang Zemin
was swift to condemn the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States,
and China has shared some counterterrorism intelligence. And it would be
welcome to have Beijing's full cooperation for the many battles ahead.
But as he meets Jiang Zemin in Shanghai, President Bush should be mindful
that any future Chinese assistance in the war on terror can only be effective
if China reverses the aid that it has given to a number of rogue states.
For example, should Osama bin Laden
or his allies obtain a nuclear weapon in the future, it is likely that
many of its components will come via Pakistan or Iran, and could very well
carry the stamp "Made in China." China's assistance to Pakistan's nuclear
weapons program dates back to the mid-1970s and includes the training of
engineers, provision of nuclear-fuel-reprocessing components, and perhaps
even the plans to make nuclear weapons. China has sold Pakistan more than
30 of the 180-mile range M-11 ballistic missiles. China has also sold Pakistan
the means to build solid-fuel 450-mile-range Shaheen-1 and 1,200-mile-range
Shaheen-II missiles.
China has sold Iran nuclear-reactor
and nuclear-fuel-reprocessing components and cruise missiles that could
conceivable carry a small nuclear device.
For more than a decade the United
States has been "engaging" Chinese officials in a repetitive pattern of
U.S. complaints, Chinese denials and promises not to proliferate, occasional
U.S. slap-on-the-wrist sanctions, but with no definitive cessation of Chinese
proliferation. So far, Beijing is correct to question U.S. resolve. It
took the Bush administration until August this year to impose some sanctions
on Chinese companies selling Shaheen missile parts to Pakistan, a program
that likely began early in the Clinton administration, which produced no
Shaheen-related sanctions during its two terms.
This failure to stop Chinese proliferation
helped fuel the nuclear missile race between India and Pakistan. And as
the later weakens under pressure from radical pro-Taliban forces, the danger
increases that nuclear weapon technology could fall into the hands of terrorist
groups like bin Laden's. But rather than isolate radical Islamic regimes
that harbor or aid terrorists, Beijing engages them, too. In recent months,
China has been caught red handed helping Saddam Hussein to build new fiber-optic
communications networks that will enable his missiles to better shoot down
U.S. aircraft. Beginning in late 1998, according to some reports, after
they gave Beijing some unexploded U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles, the Taliban
began receiving economic and military aid from China.
The more important subtext is that
China engages these regimes because it shares their goal of cutting down
U.S. power. And, incredibly, China may be attracted to using their methods
as well. Bin Laden himself has a fan club in some quarters of China's People's
Liberation Army (PLA). In their 1999 book "Unrestricted Warfare," two PLA
political commissars offer praise for the tactics of bin Laden. They note
that bin Laden's tactics are as legitimate as the tactics that Gen. Norman
Schwartzkopf used in the Persian Gulf war. Of bin Laden, they state that
the "American military is inadequately prepared to deal with this type
of enemy."
While some U.S. analysts downplay
"Unrestricted Warfare" as written by officers with no operational authority,
it is well known that the PLA is preparing to wage unconventional warfare,
especially cyber warfare. Should China attack Taiwan, the PLA would want
to shut down the U.S. air transport system. The PLA now knows this can
be done with four groups of terrorists, or perhaps by computer hackers
that can enter the U.S. air traffic control system and cause four major
airline collisions.
So to qualify as a U.S. ally in
the war on terrorism, China must stop lying about its nuclear and missile
technology proliferation and prevent states like Pakistan and Iran from
fielding nuclear missiles. Also, China must end its economic and military
commerce with regimes that assist terrorists, like the Taliban and Iraq.
In addition, China must halt is preparations for a war against Taiwan,
a war that will very likely involve U.S. forces.
In this regard, it is not time to
end Tiananmen massacre sanctions on arms sales to China, such as allowing
the sale of spare parts for U.S.-made Blackhawk helicopters. The administration
is considering this move to reward China and to allow it to rescue U.S.
pilots that may be downed over Afghanistan. China has plenty of good Russian
helicopters to that do job, and it makes no sense to revive military technology
sales to China as it still prepares for war against Taiwan.
In his Sept. 20 speech, Mr. Bush
correctly declared that "any nation that continues to harbor or support
terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime." China's
aid to the Taliban and its continued nuclear proliferation are not friendly
actions. The United States should press China to undo all it has done to
strengthen the sources of terrorism.
Richard D. Fisher Jr. edits the
China Brief newsletter of the Jamestown Foundation.
