Author: Rahul Datta/New Delhi
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: October 11, 2001
On Monday, Pakistan President Gen
Pervez Musharraf urged Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee during a late
evening telephonic conversation not to do anything to rock Islamabad's
military regime.
Not too long ago, the General had
aggressively asked India to "lay off" from the Afghanistan crisis. In between,
he has suggested that Pakistan is "well prepared" to tackle any "adventurism".
There is a story between all the
lines that Gen Musharraf has been uttering: The Pakistan Army is stretched
keeping an eye on the Afghanistan border, the nation's internal situation
and the eastern front with India.
The pros and cons of crossing the
Line of Control came up for discussion within the Cabinet Committee on
Security (CCS) just prior to the militant attacks on Srinagar. The political
decision arrived at was that the Indian policy of not crossing the Line
of Control (LoC) would remain unaltered.
Gen Musharraf may have gained some
brownie points with Pakistan emerging, by default, as the frontline State
fighting international terrorism alongside the US. The "commando General",
however, knows he is militarily weak at this juncture along the strategic
eastern front with India.
Sources told The Pioneer that the
Pakistan Army's entire war strategy against India depends on reserves from
its Crack 11 and 12 corps based at Peshawar and Quetta respectively. The
7th and 12th infantry divisions of these two corps are specially trained
for mountain warfare and an offensive role against India in the hilly regions
of Jammu and Kashmir.
With Gen Musharraf extending all
cooperation including logistics, intelligence and air space to the US,
his 11 and 12 corps are now committed to guard the western front bordering
Afghanistan.
This task has also sucked in the
7 and 12 infantry divisions to guard the Durand line and check any unrest
in the tribal areas, sources said.
The Pakistani strategists know they
don't have the necessary reserves to take on the Indians in case of surgical
strikes against terrorist bases in the POK, sources explained.
The primary role of these two specialised
corps have now changed and they are now deployed in the western sector
to contain ethnic unrest and meet any threat arising from the Taliban.
This role of guarding the Durand
line was earlier performed by the Pakistani para-military units and the
State police forces of Baluchistan and the North West Frontier Province
(NWFP), sources explained. They are now assisting the Army to look after
the massive refugee influx from Afghanistan which is expected to cross
the 1.5 million mark.
Faced with this challenge, Gen Musharraf
realises he does not have adequate forces for the eastern front with India.
His planners got alarmed when Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee did some
tough talking when he said after the blasts outside the Jammu and Kashmir
Vidhan Sabha that India's patience was not unlimited.
India has also mounted tremendous
diplomatic pressure on Pakistan by apprising various world leaders including
US President George Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair about Pakistan's
role in fomenting terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and patronising various
jehadi organisations.
Gen Musharraf also appreciated the
fact that he could not use the ultimate threat of using the nuclear weapons
in case of a conflict with India due to international pressure.
Sources said he was trying for a
trade off with the international community to pressurise India not to contemplate
a pro-active approach.
