Author: Chandan Mitra/New Delhi
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: October 10, 2001
With the imminent collapse of whatever
remains of the Taliban administration in Afghanistan, international attention
is turning towards giving a shape to a future regime in that war-ravaged
country. India is confident that, in view of the changed global scenario,
the re-colonisation of Afghanistan by Pakistan shall be prevented.
India is in regular touch with its
sources in the northern battlefront. It is keeping a constant watch on
certain intriguing developments such as the reported seizure of three Taliban
helicopters from the FATA (Frontier Autonomous Tribal Area) region of Pakistan.
These helicopters apparently flew out from the Taliban-held Pakhtia province
of Afghanistan carrying "military hardware".
This information was conveyed by
Western sources to Pakistan and it was asked to immediately seize them.
However, the tribal chieftains are believed to have put up a stiff resistance
and refused to hand over the helicopters, equipment and passengers. Pakistan
now claims it has finally seized them, but this is yet to be verified.
Meanwhile, Northern Alliance forces
are said to be advancing steadily and are on the verge of occupying the
critical Uzbekistan border city of Mazar-e-Sharif. In recent days, the
Taliban chief of air defence, Mulla Akhtar Mohammad, was killed by Alliance
forces near this city.
In the Bagran province, Alliance
troops are also learnt to have interdicted the road linking Kabul to Konduz,
which was the main channel for entrenched Taliban forces in southern Afghanistan
to send supplies to the north. That the Taliban flew out its helicopters
to Pakistan at a time when it has no easily accessible surface route to
the north has, therefore, come as a considerable surprise.
Although the Northern Alliance is
making military advances in all directions, it is accepted that the Alliance
is not sufficiently broad-based to provide effective governance to the
whole of Afghanistan. Equally, the former king, Zahir Shah, is not universally
acceptable. The President of the Northern Alliance regime, Burhanuddin
Rabbani as well as Iran remain opposed to Zahir Shah's return. The 84-year-old
deposed monarch himself is not amenable to exercising hands-on control
over his country.
There have been suggestions that
a Loya Jirga, an Afghan variant of a mahapanchayat, be summoned to work
out an alternate arrangement. But logistics make this impossible. In his
recent conversations with world leaders, External Affairs and Defence Minister
Jaswant Singh had pointed out that organising a representative Loya Jirga
at short notice would be an impossible task.
To begin with, even after the Taliban
loses control of Kabul and other major cities, vestiges of the Taliban
army are likely to retain authority over large parts of Afghanistan. "Para-dropping"
some select representatives into Kabul to constitute a Loya Jirga could
be counterproductive.
The arrangement that is now being
contemplated is to set up an interim body of 120 members that shall elect
a transitional head of government. Zahir Shah might be asked to name 50
members of his choice, mainly Pushtuns, Afghanistan's single-largest ethnic
group which accounts for approximately 42 per cent of the population.
Another 50 shall be nominated by
the Northern Alliance, comprising mainly Tadjiks and Uzbeks, while the
remaining 20 shall be drawn from minor ethnic groups. Only if this interim
body fails to unanimously choose a transitional head could Zahir Shah be
asked to provide interim leadership.
Top analysts in the Government believe
that such an arrangement will have to be conceded by Pakistan because it
does not involve replacing the Taliban with the Northern Alliance, to which
Islamabad is bitterly opposed. On its part, Pakistan is said to be trying
to work towards splitting the Taliban so that a breakaway group can be
propped up in Kabul. But Taliban by another name cannot be acceptable to
the US and its allies (or Iran, for that matter).
Analysts also believe that contrary
to perceptions, President Musharraf's maneuverability has been greatly
circumscribed in recent days. The removal of the pro-Taliban ISI chief
Mehmood Ahmed under US pressure is a prime example of the Pakistani leader's
compulsions.
It is now confirmed that Omer Sheikh,
one of the terrorists who was released from an Indian jail along with Masood
Azhar over the Kandahar hijack of 1999, had sent US$ 100,000 to Mohammad
Atta, a kingpin in the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and
Pentagon. This money was given to Atta at the behest of the former ISI
chief, thereby confirming the links between the ISI and Osama bin Laden's
Al Qaeda terrorist network.
Critical information on this score
was provided to the US by India. The External Affairs Ministry had tracked
down Omer Sheikh in Pakistan in February this year and even obtained his
cellphone number. It is learnt that the US leaned heavily on the Pakistani
Government to ensure ISI chief Mehmood Ahmed's removal after details of
his involvement were revealed.
Sources here also pointed out that
General Musharraf was facing some difficulty in keeping his highly politicised
armed forces united. That explains the appointment of two four-star generals
in the reshuffle on Monday, including a Vice-Chief. This is the first time
since General Zia-ul-Haq's time that such an arrangement has been made.
In the process, General Mohammad Aziz, who did not see eye-to-eye with
President Musharraf on a number of issues, has also been "kicked upstairs".
Significantly, General Musharraf
has also shuffled his corps commanders and put a premium on ethnicity.
For instance, Gen. Abdul Qadir, a Baluch, has been appointed Corps Commander
in Quetta, Baluchistan, while Gen. Aurakzai, a Pathan, has been made Corps
Commander in Peshawar. Ethnic factors are generally not taken into consideration
in such appointments. As far as India is concerned, it believes that Pakistan's
destabilisation is not in the region's interest. Further, it is important
that the war against terrorism is continued to its logical conclusion.
External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh says: "The global war against terrorism
cannot be personality-based or even country-centred. It has to be process-based."
Mr Jaswant Singh conveyed his views
on this and an entire range of issues during his recent meetings with US
President George Bush, Vice-President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Colin
Powell, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and Defence Secretary
Donald Rumsfeld. During the six working days he spent abroad Mr Jaswant
Singh held detailed discussions with the French President and Prime Minister,
the British Prime Minister and Foreign and Defence Secretaries and the
German Chancellor and Foreign Minister. Reacting to media comments that
India was not being treated as a leading member of the international coalition
against terror, Mr Jaswant Singh said: "If we were not an important player
in the coalition would all these top leaders have met me at such short
notice? The fact is that India is a natural partner of any anti-terrorist
alliance because we have been fighting terrorism for two decades. Others
are actually joining our war. We cannot but support their efforts. It is
Pakistan which has sponsored terrorism all these years that needs to apply
for membership of this alliance."
