Author: Leader
Publication: The Guardian, UK
Date: October 5, 2001
Blair should beware of Musharraf
The 180-degree turnabout in the
Pakistani military regime's Afghan policy since September 11 appears almost
complete. General Pervez Musharraf has withdrawn his diplomats from Kabul
and is on the point of formally cutting ties with his former Taliban proteges.
Pakistan has signalled willingness to meet envoys of Afghanistan's ex-king,
Mohammad Zahir Shah, who hopes to head a government of national unity,
and Gen Musharraf is already setting out his ideas about the "multiethnic"
composition of a post-Taliban administration. Islamabad says it is now
convinced by the US evidence implicating Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida
gangsters. It meanwhile continues to pledge full support for the US "war
on terrorism". All of which suggests that in Pakistan, the US and Britain
have discovered a flexible and reliable ally and that Tony Blair, when
he meets Gen Musharraf in Islamabad today, can look forward to an encouraging
meeting of minds.
In point of fact, matters are somewhat
more complicated. So volatile is the political situation inside Pakistan,
and so strong are anti-American sentiments among militant Islamist groups,
that the Pentagon is being forced to look elsewhere (principally Uzbekistan)
for operational land bases. The hope that Pakistan's western airfields
could be used for anything more than refuelling and temporary stopovers
has been vanquished by growing security fears.
Far from admitting his pro-Taliban
policy was disastrously misconceived, Gen Musharraf (who vetoed a covert
CIA-run operation to capture Bin Laden in 1999) still opposes western backing
for the Northern Alliance. Influential elements within the Pakistani army
and the inter-services intelligence directorate, the Taliban's mentors,
appear to have a foot in both camps. Then there are Pakistan's continuing
links to terrorism in Kashmir to consider. After nearly 40 people were
killed in Srinagar this week, a furious India demanded immediate action
against the Pakistan-based group deemed responsible. This reasonable request
met with familiar obfuscation in Islamabad. For his pains so far in this
crisis, Gen Musharraf has picked up a likely $600m in US aid, a lifting
of nuclear weapons-related sanctions, extended IMF credit and debt relief,
and now a big diplomatic bouquet from Britain. But he is still playing
a double game. Mr Blair should beware of too warm an embrace.
