Author: Anil Narendra
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: November 29, 2001
Introduction: The seeming fickleness
of General Musharraf's fate
September 11 and November 13 are
two dates which Pakistan's President General Pervez Musharraf will always
remember. After the September 11 attacks, General Musharraf became an overnight
star in the Western world. However, November 13 brought him down to "ground
zero".
Faced with the American ultimatum:
"Either you are with us or against us" - the consequences of which for
Pakistan would have been bankruptcy and its nuclear arms taken out - General
Musharraf obediently fell in line and became the darling of the Western
world. President Bush, Prime Minister Blair and Chancellor Schroeder rushed
to embrace him. From the UN to 10, Downing Street, the General was showered
with magnanimous praises. Billions of dollars started flowing into Islamabad's
empty coffers. From complete isolation, Pakistan was back on the centrestage;
it was once again given the status of a "frontline state" in promoting
Western strategic objectives. Till then isolated, General Musharraf started
believing that he was Pakistan's new messiah, destined to lead his country
to prosperity and a leadership role in South and South-West Asia.
However, November 13 changed all
that. Greeted by cheering residents, Northern Alliance fighters walked
into Kabul in defiance of American and Pakistani pressure to stay out,
after the Taliban under the cover of darkness abandoned the city. The US
had ditched Pakistan at the first opportunity, permitting the Northern
Alliance to take over Kabul despite a public commitment to Islamabad not
to allow this. The Alliance leaders were openly boasting that they entered
Kabul at the behest of President Bush, who later declared that he was delighted
by the turn of events.
The fall of Kabul has transformed
the situation radically and General Musharraf must be greatly worried.
In September, the US needed him as the central element in its anti-Taliban
offensive. Today, it is he who needs the US as his main benefactor, to
keep him in power. Now that American, British and French troops have started
operating from inside Afghanistan, Pakistan is no longer an indispensable
partner in the US-led anti-terror campaign.
Pakistan today stands completely
isolated. No Afghan faction wants to be associated with it, and Pakistan
is a political liability in the current US-led task of forming a broad-based,
multi-ethnic government in Kabul. The turn of events since November 13
is undoubtedly a strategic debacle for General Musharraf and Pakistan.
Islamabad suddenly finds itself without any significant friends across
its northern frontier. The Taliban, hitherto cultivated by Pakistan at
the expense of friendly relations with other nations, are bitter about
General Musharraf's volte face. It is not just the remnants of the Taliban
forces that General Musharraf has to contend with, but also the disillusioned
and shattered jihadis in his own country.
Can General Musharraf, then, come
out unscathed from the hole he is in? Till November 13, he had played his
cards quite well. But today he has no control over the events. Secretary
Colin Powell's visit made it clear that the operations are being directed
from Washington and Pakistan's advice is not being taken. The Government
faces no threat for now. So far, all those supporting the military strikes
inside Afghanistan are in the government. Public anger is mounting and
anti-US demonstrations could assume worrying proportions. If the ongoing
military campaign in Afghanistan doesn't end swiftly, then the anxiety
of the people will mount. It seems General Musharraf's future is tied with
the US's war strategy. Enduring Freedom could well endure for weeks and,
if so, the Pakistan President could get trapped in the rubble of Afghanistan.
Things may or may not have remained
the same in Afghanistan but the ranks of those opposing General Musharraf
in Pakistan have discernably swelled. Even the silent majority feels it
can't remain a mere spectator as mutilated bodies are pulled out of the
rubble in Jalalabad and Kunduz.
General Musharraf's close friend
Secretary Powell seems to believe that the Pakistani leader is firmly in
saddle. When asked whether he thought that General Musharraf's government
will remain stable during this war, Secretary Powell said: "I have spent
a lot of time talking to President Musharraf and I am very impressed by
him. I am impressed by the boldness and courage that he has displayed in
this crisis. I think he is securely in place. He has the support of his
key people. He seems to have a plan as to how to deal with some of the
disturbances he has seen in his society. And I think as we see more success
on the battlefield, it will be easier for him to control that. He has had
some economic difficulties, which we are trying to help him with. But I
think he is safe, I think he is secure, and I think he has been a very,
very effective leader in this crisis."
But many in Pakistan aren't ready
to share Secretary Powell's optimism. The Pakistani government is facing
intense domestic criticism for the developments in Afghanistan, in particular
for the sudden collapse of Taliban authority that has left the Northern
Alliance masters of up to 80 per cent of the country. Some Pakistani politicians
view the Northern Alliance's capture of Kabul as a major setback for Pakistani
foreign policy. Some local newspapers have also described the Northern
Alliance's domination of the capital as a "betrayal" by the United States.
The Northern Alliance is now calling the shots. Comprising Uzbek, Tajiks
and Hazaras, it has the full support of Russia, Iran and India. And all
three supporting countries would like to limit Pakistani influence in Afghanistan.
At present, the Northern Alliance
appears well positioned to dominate the discourse on the rebuilding of
the Afghan state. As it currently stands, the Pashtuns will be under-represented
at Bonn. "We are very aware that convening these groups would not mean
that every single Afghan would feel totally happy, totally represented,"
UN special envoy Frances Vendrell told BBC. Mr Vendrell stressed that Bonn
did not represent the "final step" in the process to form a multi-ethnic
provisional government.
The Pakistani public must be shocked
to see the macabre scenes of Afghans rejoicing over the bodies of slain
Pakistanis in Kabul. What must be particularly galling for them is the
contempt and hatred among Afghans for Pakistanis - fellow Muslims who believe
they have made many sacrifices for the Afghans. Now there is a real danger
of the war against terrorism spilling into Pakistan. Fears have grown about
the influx of armed Taliban fighters and their Arab, Chechen and Pakistani
associates into the tribal areas of Pakistan's NWFP.
While India, Russia and Iran are
rushing to establish their embassies in Kabul, Pakistan has been reduced
to issuing vague statements about the future broad-based set-up in Afghanistan.
Pakistan stands exposed because of its "double talk" with both the Taliban
as well as the Americans, to say nothing of the jihadis at home. Pakistan
is now being forced to count the bodies of the soldiers in Kunduz; that
is, if Mr Donald Rumsfeld allows it to do so. The Pakistani-American tango
seems to be over with Washington stoutly opposing any safe passage for
Pakistani pro-Taliban fighters trapped in Kunduz. The US is emphatic that
the Northern Alliance should detain and disarm all foreign fighters, including
Pakistanis, who had joined the militia. "My hope is that they (pro-Talibani
fighters) will either be killed or taken prisoners," said Mr Rumsfeld last
week. The question is whether General Musharraf will be able to get out
safely from all this?
