Author: Vir Sanghvi
Publication: Hindustan Times
Date: November 15, 2001
Two days after he returned from
his three-nation tour, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has reason to
feel satisfied at the way things have turned out.
Vajpayee was originally only scheduled
to visit Moscow. Then Colin Powell delivered an invitation on behalf of
President George W Bush and Washington was added to the list. Given that
he was going to be in America, Vajpayee reckoned he might as well address
the rescheduled General Assembly session in New York. At the last moment,
Tony Blair insisted that Vajpayee stop over in London on the way back.
Vajpayee accepted all the invitations
- though he did turn down a last minute invite from the Prime Minister
of Canada - because he was concerned that India might be isolated during
the reconstruction of post-Taliban Afghanistan.
He did not dispute that Pakistan
would have a geographical and tactical importance during the Afghan operation.
But he sensed one concern and one opportunity.
His concern was that Gen Pervez
Musharraf might bargain for some advantage over Kashmir in return for his
support over Afghanistan. But he also sensed an opportunity: to remove
Afghanistan from Pakistan's sphere of influence in the post-Taliban era.
Today, with Kabul in the hands of
the Northern Alliance and the Taliban in retreat, Vajpayee has reason to
believe that India has adequately addressed that concern and also seized
the opportunity.
The Indian government's assessment
is that Pakistan has gained nothing on Kashmir. The US and Britain have
merely restated well-known positions. But both governments have put pressure
on General Musharraf to stop supporting terrorism in the valley. During
Vajpayee's meeting with Tony Blair on Monday, Blair kept asking, "Has violence
decreased in Kashmir?" The Indian side treated this as a positive sign.
Vajpayee was even more delighted
by President Putin's obvious hostility to Pakistan. Putin said that the
problem in Afghanistan was not the Taliban; it was Pakistan, the creator
of the Taliban. He was also concerned about the spread of Islamic fundamentalist
violence in the States that neighbour Russia and blamed Pakistan for supporting
those who fomented the violence. Putin said he understood exactly how India
felt about Pakistan's role in Kashmir.
Better still, from Vajpayee's perspective,
was the Russian President's insistence that Pakistan should be kept out
of any post-Taliban scenario in Afghanistan and that India should be included.
As India and Russia have long supported the advancing Northern Alliance,
recent developments in the Afghan conflict pleased both men.
General Musharraf, on the other
hand, now faces anger and humiliation at home. He backed the American operation
arguing that Pakistan would gain from its support. He suggested to his
people that Pakistan would have a major say on the composition of a new
Afghan regime. And last week, he got President Bush to declare, at a joint
press conference in New York, that the Northern Alliance would not be allowed
to take Kabul.
A few days later, the Alliance marched
into Kabul and took over.
General Musharraf now has to dispel
the widespread impression in Pakistan that he has been used by the Americans.
Not only has Pakistan gained nothing on Kashmir, it has also lost the use
of Afghanistan as its strategic backyard, and it may even face the terrifying
option of having the Pakistan-hating Northern Alliance calling the shots
in Afghanistan.
India's view is that eventually
the Americans will push for an Afghan regime that includes Pashtun representation
and is not dominated by the Northern Alliance. But, in Afghanistan, possession
is nine-tenths of governance and with the Alliance in place in Kabul, it
will be harder to dislodge it and push for a more representative government.
All this makes Vajpayee a satisfied
man. When he started his tour, there were genuine fears that India had
been out-maneuvered by Pakistan.
Today, it is Vajpayee who is sitting
pretty while General Musharraf is fretting and fuming.
