Hindu Vivek Kendra
A RESOURCE CENTER FOR THE PROMOTION OF HINDUTVA
   
 
 
«« Back
IT and the end of US hegemony

IT and the end of US hegemony

Author: Bharat Jhunjhunwala
Publication: The Free Press Journal
Date: February 22, 2002

"We need to overcome the disdain of technological excellence. In the tenth Chapter of Bhagwat Gita, Lord Krishna enumerates that he is Skanda among the commanders, Pipal among the trees, Airawat among the elephants, king among human beings, vajra among weapons, etc. It is this striving for material excellence that we must also take from the Gita." Stephen S Cohen, University of California

Stephen S Cohen and his colleagues at the University of California have said that America now depend for her prosperity "on the capacity to create and introduce new technologies and new business forms." Cohen explains that over the past twenty-five years, America has moved away from mass production into specializing in the permanent frontier of new technology. But in so doing, we have signed-on to path of constant effort, investment and innovation." There are six reasons why the current spate of technological innovations--including those in information technology--will not sustain.

First, the past history of technological innovations shows that they occur in spurts with long periods of stagnation in between. The invention of the yoke many thousand years ago was followed by a few thousand years of technological stagnation. It initially spawned great civilizations like those of Egypt, Sumer and Indus but thereafter there was no significant technological development for two thousand years. The invention of iron technology around 1000 B.C. led to the rise of the civilizations of Greece and Rome and Maurya empires but then again there was no technological development for another two thousand years till the steam engine came. This history seems to indicate that technological advances occur in spurts followed by long periods of stability.

But we have seen a series of technological developments in the last three centuries starting with the steam engine--the electric motor, telegraph, television, jet airplanes and now computers and internet. These technological developments may all be elements of one big leap. The invention of bronze, for example, was followed by that of the sail boat, water-lifting, wheeled carts and chariots. But these subsequent developments are not seen as heralding new `Ages'. It is possible that a few hundred years down the road, the internet may similarly be seen as a part of the larger `Machine Age'.

Second, the supremacy of the United States today rests, as Cohen points out, on `constant effort, investment and innovation'. This comes along with its costs. The social stress is immense. The extreme personal distress--violence in schools among the young, high rates of divorce, unwillingness to take military hits from direct engagement-- are indicators that the American civilization may burst under this frenzied load of change. Let us not forget that more `advanced' civilizations like those of Rome had been overrun by barbarians at lower levels of technological expertise but who were mentally stronger. It is likely, therefore, that the present exponential trend in technological innovations will come to rest from the social exhaustion that it entails.

Third, Internet is really not a new technology like the bronze axe or the gun powder. It is more like a lubricant. Internet makes available information to a school graduate at the click of the mouse which would have earlier been accessible only to advanced research institutes and that too with much effort. The internet does not `create' anything itself. It only facilitates what other sectors are creating. Thus, it will lead to the speeding up of every sector of the economy but the basic structure of the economy will remain unchanged. The impact of the internet will be like graduating from an Ambassador to Mitsubishi Lancer--they both serve the same function of transport.

Fourth, the final impact of the internet may be rather placid. The internet can provide vast amounts of information but it cannot `think'. The human brain is still required to transform the information into anything useful. The steam engine does not dispense with the engine driver and the signal man. Similarly, the internet will not do away with the economist and the sociologist.

Fifth, the internet may prove to be the enemy of the United States. Toffler points out the difficulties that the US faces in being able to maintain her technological lead: "After the Gulf War it looked as though the US would have a 10-to 15-year lead. But the fact is, the more knowledge - intensive military action becomes the more nonlinear; the more a small input someplace can neutralize an enormous investment. And having the right bit or byte of information at the right place at the right time, in India or in Turkistan or in God knows where, could neutralize an enormous amount of military power somewhere else. So it is no longer necessary to match battalion with battalion, tank with tank, in order to neutralize the other guy." Thus a country like ours with less resources at hand can yet outsmart the technologically advanced countries. Let us not forget that our Pokharan explosions had escaped detection by the spy satellites of the United States.

Sixth, as time passes, wealth will follow those who have widespread entrepreneurship. Toffler points out that mass production is out and customization is in.

Most exporters will vouch for the fact that India gets higher prices for our products mainly because our entrepreneurs are able to meet the specific demands of our customers. The US imposed anti-dumping duty on our steel precisely because our producers were supplying plates cut to size as per the customer's requirement. Instead of, therefore, going for large scale production, we must go for customization.

The expansion of services sector will also favour India. Our educated entrepreneurs can provide health, education, music, movies, software and all other services.

It is likely, therefore, that the technological supremacy of the United States which has put all its stake, as Cohen points out, on its ability to make constant innovations will not last. Nor will the euphoria about IT. This view is in contrast to that of futurologist Alvin Toffler who sees the impact of information technology so pervasive as to claim that "we are in the midst of creating a new civilization." He holds that, in times to come, we will need a completely new approach to economics, politics and sociology." This exuberance would appear to be similar to that the people of ancient Greece may have felt when they first used bronze weapons. A more somber assessment would be that IT has only taken one step forward the process that had been continuing for many millennia. We know that the advances of chariot, sail boat, steam engine, electricity, jet plane and television have hardly changed the basic questions of social organization that man has been occupied with. The questions regarding the purpose of life that our Rig Vedic seers had been preoccupied with at the advent of bronze age continue to haunt us till today.

What we need is to focus on our strengths instead of trying to copy the model that United States has followed. We should see the limits of technological innovations and focus on what comes next. Let us accept that in five thousand years of our civilization we have contributed little to technologies yet we have by far been the richest. The cities of Harappa and Mohanjodaro were many hundred times larger than those of Egypt and Sumer. Our Maurya and Gupta empires flourished when Europe went through its Dark Ages.

We need to overcome the disdain of technological excellence. In the tenth Chapter of Bhagwat Gita, Lord Krishna enumerates that he is Skanda among the commanders, Pipal among the trees, Airawat among the elephants, king among human beings, vajra among weapons, etc. It is this striving for material excellence that we must also take from the Gita. We will have to learn to honour our scientists and innovators. IT can then become an instrument for our emerging as leaders of the world.
 


Back                          Top

«« Back
 
 
 
  Search Articles
 
  Special Annoucements