Author: Bharat Jhunjhunwala
Publication: The Free Press Journal
Date: February 22, 2002
"We need to overcome the disdain
of technological excellence. In the tenth Chapter of Bhagwat Gita, Lord
Krishna enumerates that he is Skanda among the commanders, Pipal among
the trees, Airawat among the elephants, king among human beings, vajra
among weapons, etc. It is this striving for material excellence that we
must also take from the Gita." Stephen S Cohen, University of California
Stephen S Cohen and his colleagues
at the University of California have said that America now depend for her
prosperity "on the capacity to create and introduce new technologies and
new business forms." Cohen explains that over the past twenty-five years,
America has moved away from mass production into specializing in the permanent
frontier of new technology. But in so doing, we have signed-on to path
of constant effort, investment and innovation." There are six reasons why
the current spate of technological innovations--including those in information
technology--will not sustain.
First, the past history of technological
innovations shows that they occur in spurts with long periods of stagnation
in between. The invention of the yoke many thousand years ago was followed
by a few thousand years of technological stagnation. It initially spawned
great civilizations like those of Egypt, Sumer and Indus but thereafter
there was no significant technological development for two thousand years.
The invention of iron technology around 1000 B.C. led to the rise of the
civilizations of Greece and Rome and Maurya empires but then again there
was no technological development for another two thousand years till the
steam engine came. This history seems to indicate that technological advances
occur in spurts followed by long periods of stability.
But we have seen a series of technological
developments in the last three centuries starting with the steam engine--the
electric motor, telegraph, television, jet airplanes and now computers
and internet. These technological developments may all be elements of one
big leap. The invention of bronze, for example, was followed by that of
the sail boat, water-lifting, wheeled carts and chariots. But these subsequent
developments are not seen as heralding new `Ages'. It is possible that
a few hundred years down the road, the internet may similarly be seen as
a part of the larger `Machine Age'.
Second, the supremacy of the United
States today rests, as Cohen points out, on `constant effort, investment
and innovation'. This comes along with its costs. The social stress is
immense. The extreme personal distress--violence in schools among the young,
high rates of divorce, unwillingness to take military hits from direct
engagement-- are indicators that the American civilization may burst under
this frenzied load of change. Let us not forget that more `advanced' civilizations
like those of Rome had been overrun by barbarians at lower levels of technological
expertise but who were mentally stronger. It is likely, therefore, that
the present exponential trend in technological innovations will come to
rest from the social exhaustion that it entails.
Third, Internet is really not a
new technology like the bronze axe or the gun powder. It is more like a
lubricant. Internet makes available information to a school graduate at
the click of the mouse which would have earlier been accessible only to
advanced research institutes and that too with much effort. The internet
does not `create' anything itself. It only facilitates what other sectors
are creating. Thus, it will lead to the speeding up of every sector of
the economy but the basic structure of the economy will remain unchanged.
The impact of the internet will be like graduating from an Ambassador to
Mitsubishi Lancer--they both serve the same function of transport.
Fourth, the final impact of the
internet may be rather placid. The internet can provide vast amounts of
information but it cannot `think'. The human brain is still required to
transform the information into anything useful. The steam engine does not
dispense with the engine driver and the signal man. Similarly, the internet
will not do away with the economist and the sociologist.
Fifth, the internet may prove to
be the enemy of the United States. Toffler points out the difficulties
that the US faces in being able to maintain her technological lead: "After
the Gulf War it looked as though the US would have a 10-to 15-year lead.
But the fact is, the more knowledge - intensive military action becomes
the more nonlinear; the more a small input someplace can neutralize an
enormous investment. And having the right bit or byte of information at
the right place at the right time, in India or in Turkistan or in God knows
where, could neutralize an enormous amount of military power somewhere
else. So it is no longer necessary to match battalion with battalion, tank
with tank, in order to neutralize the other guy." Thus a country like ours
with less resources at hand can yet outsmart the technologically advanced
countries. Let us not forget that our Pokharan explosions had escaped detection
by the spy satellites of the United States.
Sixth, as time passes, wealth will
follow those who have widespread entrepreneurship. Toffler points out that
mass production is out and customization is in.
Most exporters will vouch for the
fact that India gets higher prices for our products mainly because our
entrepreneurs are able to meet the specific demands of our customers. The
US imposed anti-dumping duty on our steel precisely because our producers
were supplying plates cut to size as per the customer's requirement. Instead
of, therefore, going for large scale production, we must go for customization.
The expansion of services sector
will also favour India. Our educated entrepreneurs can provide health,
education, music, movies, software and all other services.
It is likely, therefore, that the
technological supremacy of the United States which has put all its stake,
as Cohen points out, on its ability to make constant innovations will not
last. Nor will the euphoria about IT. This view is in contrast to that
of futurologist Alvin Toffler who sees the impact of information technology
so pervasive as to claim that "we are in the midst of creating a new civilization."
He holds that, in times to come, we will need a completely new approach
to economics, politics and sociology." This exuberance would appear to
be similar to that the people of ancient Greece may have felt when they
first used bronze weapons. A more somber assessment would be that IT has
only taken one step forward the process that had been continuing for many
millennia. We know that the advances of chariot, sail boat, steam engine,
electricity, jet plane and television have hardly changed the basic questions
of social organization that man has been occupied with. The questions regarding
the purpose of life that our Rig Vedic seers had been preoccupied with
at the advent of bronze age continue to haunt us till today.
What we need is to focus on our
strengths instead of trying to copy the model that United States has followed.
We should see the limits of technological innovations and focus on what
comes next. Let us accept that in five thousand years of our civilization
we have contributed little to technologies yet we have by far been the
richest. The cities of Harappa and Mohanjodaro were many hundred times
larger than those of Egypt and Sumer. Our Maurya and Gupta empires flourished
when Europe went through its Dark Ages.
We need to overcome the disdain
of technological excellence. In the tenth Chapter of Bhagwat Gita, Lord
Krishna enumerates that he is Skanda among the commanders, Pipal among
the trees, Airawat among the elephants, king among human beings, vajra
among weapons, etc. It is this striving for material excellence that we
must also take from the Gita. We will have to learn to honour our scientists
and innovators. IT can then become an instrument for our emerging as leaders
of the world.