Author: T.V. Parasuram/Press Trust
of India
Publication: www.expressindia.com
Date: February 1, 2002
URL: http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=7076
The Kargil crisis was a watershed
in Indo-Pak relations, prompting India to reconsider engaging Pakistan
on the Kashmir issue diplomatically and leaving an "ugly stability" as
the best thing the two sides could hope for, says a US think-tank.
For India, Kargil confirmed the
belief that "Pakistan is a reckless, adventuristic and untrustworthy state.
Kargil motivated India to reconsider whether to engage Pakistan diplomatically
in the Kashmir issue," the Rand Corporation says in a study.
"Kargil has seriously compromised
the legitimacy of Pakistan's claims on Kashmir. India is not likely to
give Pakistan a chance to flirt with Kargil-like scenarios in the future.
New Delhi will watch the border in Kashmir and elsewhere carefully and
redouble its efforts to prevent infiltration," the study co-authored by
Ashley J. Tellis, advisor to the US Ambassador to India, says.
The most important lesson India
learned from Kargil, says Rand, was that it must be prepared to counter
a wide range of Pakistani threats that may be mounted by what is essentially
a reckless but tenacious adversary.
On Pakistan's part, the study says,
its evaluation of the consequences of Kargil had been ambiguous, even as
its most likely strategy appeared to be increasing its support for insurgency
throughout India.
"Islamabad remains passionately
focussed on 'resolving' Kashmir, and its support for insurgency is unlikely
to dissipate any time soon," the Rand observes.
"India understands that the most
likely strategy for Pakistan will be increasing its support for insurgency
and for terrorist attacks throughout India," the study says. "New Delhi
also appreciates that this strategy is to Pakistan's own disadvantage and
further confirms Islamabad as a sponsor of Islamist terrorism (but)...
India will continue to exhibit restraint."
Though Pakistan believes that use
of its troops in Kargil has invited political failure, it does not imply
that Islamabad has concluded that other forms of violence are illegitimate
or ineffective. "Ugly stability"-the persistence of unconventional conflicts-will
probably endure in the region. State-sponsored terrorism will remain an
attractive mode of operation in large part because conventional conflicts
remain risky," Rand says.
"Musharraf may understand the dividends
that could accrue to Pakistan's development if he can sell a compromise
on the Kashmir issue to the Pakistan polity." However, any move by him
in this direction would invite a study.
