Author: Syed Saleem Shahzad
Publication: Asia Times
Date: August 28, 2002
URL: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/DH28Df01.html
Beleaguered Pakistani President
Pervez Musharraf, a virtual prisoner in his own barracks following
attempts on his life, is desperately maneuvering to form a political bloc
that will prevent the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), led by former premier
Benazir Bhutto, from dominating October's national elections.
Musharraf last week controversially
rammed through constitutional amendments that will allow him to dismiss
an elected parliament and government and to appoint and sack heads of important
constitutional offices, powers previously exercised only by the prime minister.
Analysts believe that the PPP is
the only party with sufficient political savvy and experience to prevent
this from happening should it gain a majority in the October polls. Musharraf
would risk throwing the country into complete chaos should he try to oust
a legally- elected PPP.
Events have turned dramatically
against Musharraf since he sacrificed his personal ambitions and what many
believe to have been the national interest in backing the United States
in its war on Afghanistan, culminating in at least two known attempts on
his life by suspected splinter militant groups determined to punish Musharraf
for walking hand-in-hand with Washington.
And to add insult to injury, while
Musharraf remains confined to his army house in Rawalpindi, it is not a
matter of particular concern to the US, which has already sucked as much
advantage as it can out of using Pakistan as a frontline state in the war
against terror.
Attention has now shifted to the
Middle East and Iraq, a region where Pakistan is of little relevance, especially
when it comes to a "regime change" to oust Saddam Hussein - Jordan and
Turkey are now the targets of Washington's charm offensive.
As far as Pakistan is concerned,
at this point a pro-US democratic government (the PPP) and a pro-US army
chief (such as Vice Chief of Army Staff General Mohammed Yusuf) would be
in the best interests of the US, rather than an iron man who has vested
all powers in his hands and who could become a threat at any time to US
interests.
The might of Musharraf's military
administration has thus been focused on launching a "king's" party that
would be strong enough to defeat the PPP, but the consensus is that without
heavy rigging (which is always a possibility), the PPP will sweep the elections.
This has forced Musharraf to meet
Qazi Hussain Ahmed, the head of the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), a premier fundamentalist
party, who has been an outspoken critic of the government. The one-on-one
three- hour meeting was unprecedented: it was the longest meeting Musharraf
has had with any political leader. Qazi refused to comment on what was
discussed, other than to say that "he [Musharraf] appeared an extremely
scared man". However, sources maintained that Musharraf requested the JI
chief to forge an alliance of all right-wing parties to stop the emergence
of the PPP, which, should it win, would be in the position to form a government
for the third time.
Both previous PPP governments (1988-1990
and 1993-1996) were led by Benazir Bhutto, the second dismissed by the
president on charges of "corruption, mismanagement of the economy and implication
in extra-judicial killings in Karachi". Bhutto has since been in exile,
and faces criminal charges should she return to Pakistan to personally
fight the election campaign.
These political moves apart, the
US-based South Asia Tribune has also hinted at contact between Musharraf
and top jihadi leaders. Although such meetings have not been confirmed,
Asia Times Online has learnt that two of the main militant groups, the
banned Lashkar-i-Taiba (an Islamic militant group that has been active
in Kashmir), and the also-banned Harkatul Mujahadeen, have recently mobilized
their resources and instructed their men to move to Lahore. No exact reasons
have been given for this, but it is likely that the militant groups are
preparing for renewed forays into Indian- administered Kashmir. Musharraf
had promised, under pressure from the US, and with some success, to curb
cross-border operations by Pakistan-based militants into Indian Kashmir.
Expect this to change, especially before the Jammu and Kashmir state elections
begin in September.
Meanwhile, there are further signs
of a reemergence of anti-US groupings in Afghanistan, with reports of US
casualties in skirmishes in Kunar, Khost and Paktia. These factions have
been able to form because of relaxed vigilance over the border routes between
Afghanistan and Pakistan. Again, like the cross-border activities into
Kashmir, Musharraf had promised the US that the borders would be sealed
to prevent the Taliban and al-Qaeda members from seeking refuge in Pakistan.
Initially this was the case, but
recently Pakistan has kept a negligible presence on its western borders,
allowing a virtually free flow of people and goods. Sources said that in
the past month two large Taliban convoys comprising about 1,000 armed persons
moved into Waziristan Agency in Pakistan's semi-autonomous tribal region.
The district administration knew of their presence and also informed the
higher-ups. They were asked to monitor the movement of the convoy, which
they did until it crossed back into Afghanistan.
Ever since their rout began late
last year, the Taliban and al-Qaeda have fled Afghanistan via two main
routes. One was a sea route through Karachi port and the other by air through
Islamabad. Ibrahim Hyderi is a fishing slum in Karachi where even cellular
telephones do not work and where law enforcement agencies seldom visit.
Two month ago, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation and Pakistan's Inter-Services
Intelligence conducted a joint raid in the area and two prominent Taliban
commanders were seized. They were scheduled to depart for Dubai in the
United Arab Emirates by small ship, a route that is apparently still in
use.
Similarly, Pakistani intelligence
sources say that they have tracked some suspects who fled from Pakistan
by air, usually destined for the German cities of Dusseldorf, Cologne and
Hannover, using fake Pakistani passports.
According to an investigator, a
group comprising German officials at the exhibition centers in these cities
and Pakistani collaborators is involved in smuggling people. The German
embassy in Pakistan has often complained that many "businessmen" and their
associates go to Dusseldorf, Cologne and Hannover and never return. Like
the sea route, this channel is said to still be open.
