How long will Musharraf last?

Author: M.V. Kamath
Publication: Organiser
Date: July 28, 2002

How long can we expect Pakistan's president, General Pervez Musharraf to last? That is a question that is now being increasingly discussed in Pakistan itself, if reports in the media are any indication. Early this month the New York Times reported that Musharraf (58) "is isolated in his own land, increasingly a figure of ridicule and the focus of a growing anti-Western fury that is shared by Islamic militants and the middle class alike". The decline in the General's fortunes, reported the paper, "represents an abrupt turnaround since last autumn" and it quoted a citizen as saying that "if America stops its support, Gen Musharraf will not last a day". There is evidence that Pakistan's President has greatly angered the United States, ever since he gave two interviews, one to Newsweek and another to The Washington Post saying that he had not given the US any permanent commitment to halt cross-border terrorist infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir and further that dismantling terrorist camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir was "not on the agenda at all". The New York-based weekly India Abroad reported (July 5) that Secretary of State Colin Powell is "totally pissed off" with Musharraf and that, this could mean that the General "is on the verge of losing his most powerful ally". Powell, according to reports "hit the ceiling" and was "hopping mad" at what was considered an about-turn from Musharraf's promise to halt terrorism permanently, and telephoned the Pakistan leader to tell him where he got off. That does not mean that the US will work towards getting rid of Musharraf in the near future but the New York Times report that the General's portrayal in the Pakistani Press and comments from political leaders is indicative of loss of public confidence cannot be dismissed casually. Sometimes the American media is carefully used by the US administration to prepare the public to accept changes in foreign policy. When the New York Times reports that the nation-wide referendum on Musharraf's rule two months ago is regarded widely in Pakistan "as fraudulent", it is indicative of the concern in US administration. The popular Pakistani journal Herald in its May issue quoted Hamid Khan, President of the Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) as saying that "military rulers in Pakistan have repeatedly abused the process of referendum to perpetuate themselves in power". Hamid Khan condemned the months old referendum as "unconstitutional" and averred that "Gen Musharraf and his colleagues in the military junta have done a great injustice to the country and have contravened the national interest by politicising the armed forces". Hamid Khan also said that "the people in general, and lawyers in particular, are shocked at the misuse of Government funds and state resources in order to perpetuate a military ruler in power". The Herald quoted other distinguished figures in Pakistan's political life as condemning Musharraf. What can all this mean for Musharraf's future? In order to safeguard it Musharraf has proposed changes in the 1973 Pakistan Constitution that gives him sweeping powers that include the right to dismiss a duly-elected Prime Minister and the dissolution of both the National and Provincial Assemblies.

The Hindu (June 27) reported from Islamabad that "mainstream and religious political parties have already questioned the competence of the Government to make any fundamental changes in the Constitution". Musharraf, according to all indications is facing rough weather. Incidentally one of the changes proposed by Musharraf would effectively disqualify two former Prime Ministers of Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif from taking part in the general elections proposed to be held later in October. The proposal is that any person who is convicted by a court on charges of corruption or misuse of office would not be eligible to contest an election. It is specifically aimed at these two leaders. What is their reaction? This is to join hands to fight Musharraf unitedly. Early in July, Benazir Bhutto who has been living in Dubai since 1998 went to Jeddah, reportedly to perform 'ummah' but more specifically to call on Nawaz Sharif who has his residence there. It is not clear what understanding they have jointly arrived at. One report suggests that the two exiled leaders have agreed to a formal coalition or, at the very least, to seat adjustments. Nawaz Sharif who leads the Pakistan Muslim League in absentia is believed willing to give a "free hand" to Benazir, as the best political choice knowing fully well that his own party is unlikely to win a majority in the elections. Should a pre-election coalition of the PML-PPP fight the elections and get a clear majority-as it is bound to-in the National Assembly it will be open to it to invite the party leaders to return to Pakistan. Musharraf then will have two choices: dismiss the elected parliament and invite the ire of the western powers, or submit to its dictates and get marginalised. Once again the Armed Forces will be put in a position to fight the country's own elected people and make a mockery of democracy. What right would Musharraf then have to speak of the right of the Kashmiri people to have their own Government? As it is, Musharraf is a prisoner of the United States in his own country. On March 28 this very year, a team of American law enforcement and intelligence officials had stormed several houses in Pakistan to capture five Taliban fighters and 25 Arabs suspected of having links to Al Qaeda. To save its face the Pakistan Government said the raids were carried out with its "permission" as if it had any real powers to deny American cops the right to arrest anyone in Pakistan considered to be terrorists. Musharraf has to obey American orders-or else! Again the New York Times reported that "Pakistani officials were reluctant to provide details of the operation, fearful that the heavy American involvement in what amounted to a police action could inflame sensitivities over sovereignty for Gen Musharraf, Pakistan's President". The truth is that Musharraf's power is illusory. He is in power just as long as Washington wants him to remain in power. The day the United States comes to the conclusion that Musharraf is no longer needed, he will either be forced to resign and seek asylum in Britain or in the United States or face elimination as his predecessor from the Armed Forces did. In such a situation it would be wise on India's part to maintain a discreet silence and let Musharraf invite his own destruction. What seems possible is that the United States no longer sees Pakistan as a useful partner. Is this the precursor of the further break-up of Pakistan and its total elimination as a force in South Asia?
 

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