Author:
Publication: The Taipei Times
Date: April 2, 2004
India's economy soared 10.4 percent
in the final quarter of last year, making it one of the fastest-growing
in the world, even ahead of China's.
The last quarter's rise, up from
an 8.4 percent pace in the previous quarter, was driven mainly by an expansion
of nearly 17 percent in farm output. Last season, the country benefited
from the heaviest monsoon rains in over a decade. Farming accounts for
a quarter of India's economy.
The Center for Monitoring of the
Indian Economy, based in Bombay, said in its monthly review, released on
Wednesday, that overall GDP earlier forecast at around 8 percent, would
probably be above 9 percent in the government's fiscal year ending last
month.
But the jump, which makes India
the fastest-growing Asian economy, is unlikely to continue.
"I would not get too excited about
the double digits because there is a big skew in farm output this year
which is unlikely to repeat," said Jyotivardhan Jaipuria, head of research
at DSP Merrill Lynch.
Jaipuria said, however, that manufacturing
and services would grow at a stronger pace in coming quarters."This indicates
the underlying strength in the economy and reinforces the theme that India
is growing nearly as fast as China," Jaipuria said, adding that "unlike
China, India's growth phase is just beginning and can be sustained at close
to double-digit rates."
The bright news on the economy will
no doubt help the ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee,
ahead of federal elections planned for this month and next.
The Bharatiya Janata Party, which
dominates the ruling coalition, is running on the slogan "elec-tricity,
roads and drinking water." The party has promised to make the country an
economic superpower by 2010. It has said it will develop power and telecommunications
infrastructure and support the country's software industry.
The Congress Party, the main opposition,
has said that it will make economic development in the villages the focus
of its government if elected.
But both parties have stressed that
they will focus on rural India.
The strong growth rate and aggressive
privatization initiatives, including several sales of large stakes in state
companies, have buoyed the general mood, but mostly in India's cities and
towns.
