Author: Yevgeny Bendersky
Publication: Power and Interest
News
Date: August 18, 2004
URL: http://www.pinr.com
Since the end of the Cold War, the
United States underwent major strategic reassessments of its capabilities
and geopolitical reach around the globe. As the threat of a single force
-- the U.S.S.R. -- receded and then disappeared altogether, new challenges
arose. One such challenge was the relationship with several countries that
began to gain clout and importance on the world's political, military and
economic scene. While Washington's attention has been fixed on the former
Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China, a country somewhat neglected by
U.S. policymakers steadily gained in importance and has the potential of
being one of the world's major geopolitical players -- India.
During the Cold War, India's interests
and aspirations were largely subordinated to the strategies of its chief
ally, the U.S.S.R. The checkerboard pattern of the Cold War alliances placed
democratic, though socialist-oriented, India in the Soviet camp, while
the U.S. supported its rival, Pakistan. India's relationship with the U.S.S.R.
did not preclude it from pursuing its own policy towards China, with whom
it fought a losing conflict in the early 1960s, or towards Pakistan itself,
which was defeated twice and finally dismembered by India in 1971.
Its Cold War alliance gave India
access to much-needed industrial and military technology. While home to
the world's second largest population after China, India has remained backward
and underdeveloped for decades after its independence due to the policies
and approaches of its successive governments. While each government has
attempted to enrich the state through various political and economic means,
these developments have been hampered by the near-monumental task of lifting
its people out of poverty through ways that would be acceptable to all
strata of the population.
After 1991, as the U.S.S.R. fell
apart, India's policies were no longer strongly tied or connected to any
one country. Since that time, it has aggressively pursued its own independent
agenda. And while Washington policymakers were keenly aware of the developments
on the Eurasian subcontinent for decades, they "suddenly" discovered India
in the post-1991 world as an energetic and driven country with the full
potential of becoming a major player in world affairs in the coming decades.
India's future rise to prominence
will not be a result of a Cold War-style alliance, but the culmination
of several factors that will allow it to harness the full potential of
the country. First, its emergence as one of Eurasia's chief economies will
be both a combination of its economic improvement and the sheer numbers
of its population. Since the late 1980s, India's economy has started on
the slow, but inevitable, path towards marketization. This ongoing endeavor
will take many more years to complete, as India's economy has been structured
in order to grant the government a major decision-making role. This has
inevitably given rise to a plethora of protectionist laws and subsidies,
which now stand in the way of full market-oriented economic reform. Such
a protectionist economy now employs hundreds of millions of people, and
Western-style reforms and restructuring will affect them in profound ways.
Still, India is slowly proceeding with market reforms, and these initial
efforts are producing necessary results.
India's well-educated, young population
has embraced state-of-the-art computer and information technologies, making
their country one of the most important high-tech hubs in the world. Its
information technology and computer companies in Bangalore have been named
as the world's second Silicon Valley. These companies and their founders
had a major part in the high-tech and Internet boom in the United States
in the late 1990s. While they are earning India its much-needed currency,
this success is mostly limited, as the rest of the country lags far behind
-- nearly a third of India's population still lives below the national
poverty line.
In 2003, the Economist did a comparative
study of India and China, and although it concluded that, for the time
being, China's state-sanctioned market policies are far ahead of India's
in terms of internal development and foreign direct investment, India has
the potential to economically catch up to its large neighbor. Its middle
class, soon to number in the hundreds of millions, is growing, and its
consumer needs are contributing to domestic economic growth. This might
generate its own set of problems, as the growing consumer demand will push
the country's natural resources to the limit.
For now, increased demand for foreign
investment and technical expertise means that the United States stands
to benefit from this trend, though certain detriments to this relationship
can be generated. English-speaking India is a destination for many jobs
currently being outsourced by the United States, an issue that might figure
prominently during the November presidential elections. Nonetheless, while
India's full economic recovery is years away, the conditions already exist
for this process to bear fruit in the near future.
India's second contribution to its
rise as a regional and global power is its military establishment. Already,
India has one of the world's largest armed forces. Its indigenous military
development is producing the desired results, fielding everything from
tanks and armored vehicles to jet fighters and advanced naval vessels.
The Indian Navy already has the largest presence in the Indian Ocean after
the United States, and fields an aircraft carrier, which allows it to extend
operations beyond its immediate landmass. Having fought several wars against
Pakistan, India's current military is twice as large as its rival.
Both countries' acquisition and
testing of nuclear weapons by 1998 has leveled the playing field in case
of a war and has also focused international attention on the subcontinent.
While both India and Pakistan are currently developing short- and medium-range
ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, the initial scare
of the first nuclear showdown between the two states has passed. There
does not appear to be that great a possibility of both countries exchanging
nuclear strikes on each other's cities, though major tension remains between
the two over Pakistan's support of militants in Indian-controlled Kashmir.
At present, each country maintains a somewhat nervous finger on the nuclear
trigger. To further dissipate this tension, India has recently engaged
in public reconciliation moves, with its former prime minister traveling
to Pakistan for a series of high-profile sports events.
The Indian Air Force has recently
demonstrated that it can be counted among the world's top by besting American
aircraft in a series of joint war games. Its air power not only includes
twice as many aircraft as Pakistan's, but also is qualitatively better
than the much-bigger Chinese air force. India has hundreds of modern aircraft
in its inventory, including state-of-the-art Su-30, Mig-29, Jaguars and
Mirage 2000. It also possesses long-range bombers that are capable of targeting
most of China almost unchallenged. India maintains this lead by purchasing
high-tech weapons systems from Russia, and augmenting them with domestically
produced avionics equipment, as well as with equipment procured from other
countries. As India begins to retire hundreds of its older aircraft, the
modern replacements will strengthen its already powerful and battle-proven
reach over the subcontinent and South Asia in general.
India has also been very active
politically, strengthening its relationship with Russia through economic
and military cooperation. The purchase of Russian military equipment is
one of the ways India seeks to expand its influence. It is also active
in the Central Asian countries through high-profile state visits and economic
cooperation. India has a great interest in oil- and natural gas-rich Central
Asia, and has expressed such interest in several pipeline projects that
would give it access to much-needed energy reserves.
During the U.S.-led war against
the Taliban, India maintained a limited presence in Tajikistan that allowed
it to aid anti-Taliban forces and monitor the situation in the region.
Given the growing Chinese and American influence in Central Asia, Russia
might welcome India to serve as a counterbalance. India's trade with Russia
is on the rise, and Indian economic presence and influence in Central Asia
is expected to grow in the coming years.
At present, India is far from being
one of the Eurasian superpowers, but all signs point to its coming emergence
as such. The sheer numbers of its growing population that now stands at
more than a billion, the expanding middle class, robust military establishment
and the country's increasing sophistication in high-technology are shaping
India as one of the rising political, economic and military powers. This
rise is inevitable and has profound implications for U.S. foreign policy.
Unlike China, which is now seen
by some U.S. policymakers as a potential rival, the U.S. will be gaining
a powerful ally in India. India is the world's largest democracy and although
its politics are often driven by nationalistic demands, in general, it
aspires to similar democratic goals and principles as the United States.
However, India views U.S. support of Pakistan with guarded suspicion. On
the one hand, Pakistan gained pivotal importance to the U.S. in the "war
on terrorism." On the other, the Pakistani military supports its own militants
in Kashmir that attack India's security targets. It will be all the more
important for the U.S. to maintain a careful balance between what it now
regards as a short- to possibly long-term interest -- Pakistan's fight
against al-Qaeda -- and its possible long-term objectives, such as India
as a rising power with all the requisite clout.
Furthermore, in the emerging geopolitical
picture, it is India, rather than Russia, that can check the rising Chinese
influence in Eurasia, and Washington's closer cooperation with this subcontinental
power can help enhance its own influence. India's proximity to Afghanistan
and its own war against Muslim fundamentalists in Jammu and Kashmir make
it a potentially powerful ally in the global fight against terrorism.
Most importantly, India's drive
for greater power status is driven by intense domestic sentiment, which
has viewed the last five centuries of foreign domination with growing contempt.
It will not welcome foreign influence that will be viewed as limiting its
own potential. In the near future, in order to strengthen its bonds with
India, the United States will have to structure its own policies with this
country on equal terms. Finally free from foreign restraints and largely
bound by its own domestic agenda, India stands the chance of emerging as
one of the main players in Eurasian and global affairs.