Author: Nabanita Sircar
Publication: The Hindustan Times
Date: July 14, 2006
Introduction: It's probably a group affiliated
to Al Qaeda. Mumbai blasts match the Madrid bombings. The similarities seem
too close to be ignored. - Paul Wilkinson Security Expert
Anti-Terror experts in London believe that
India should be prepared for more attacks on the lines of Tuesday's serial
blasts on Mumbai trains. "Probably India will see more, rather than less
terrorist violence," said Paul Beaver, an independent security analyst
and member of the House of Commons Select Committee on security.
He said India's recent missile launch "could
inspire some terrorists to demonstrate that the country is not invulnerable".
Also, India's closeness to the US and the UK, "especially the US, might
excite Al Qaeda, who would look at India as a running mate," he said.
"Definitely a deeper link with Al Qaeda
needs to be examined," he said. Prof Paul Wilkinson of the Centre for
the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at St Andrews University agrees
with Beaver: "Investigators will find a link with Al Qaeda. The Al Qaeda's
aim now would be to attack major cities, rather than the countryside in Kashmir."
He said the Mumbai bombings bear all the "hallmarks
of Al Qaeda methodology". "It is probably a group affiliated to
Al Qaeda," he said. "The Mumbai attack fits in with the Madrid bombings.
The similarities seem too close to be ignored," he added.
"The Kashmir cause is one they have tried
to exploit," he said, and added, "Al Qaeda has for sometime regarded
India as an obstacle against achieving its goals." But he said, that
the calmness with which India reacted, would have also upset the terrorists.
"They would love to promote religious conflict within India." Jeremy
Binnie, analyst at Jane's Terrorism and Insurgency Centre, said: "Given
the modus operandi of the bombings it is definitely a jihadist group."
Pointing to the attempted bombing on a Mumbai-bound train from Ahmedabad in
February, he said: "If experts look at that and track down recent events,
it is possible those events were a dry run for a bigger attack." He suggested
that the attempt would be to derail Indo-Pak relations because "ongoing
improvement in relations would not be in favour of the jihadists."
