Author: Swapan Dasgupta
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: February 11, 2007
Opinion makers, such as they are, hunt in
a pack. It, therefore, probably needed the Mumbai municipal poll results to
persuade the less compliant section of the editorial class that Manmohan Singh's
claim to be regarded as the Indian of the Year is feeble and that opinion
poll results don't always translate into reality.
Before the results stunned the beautiful people
into admitting that they had got their sums wrong, it was widely assumed that
a dispirited Shiv Sena and a demotivated BJP had outlived their moment in
history. The belief in saffron vulnerability owed entirely to the myth of
the Congress' mastery over vote-bank politics. Since it assumed power at the
Centre in May 2004, the Congress has assiduously targeted specific sections.
The backward castes, who were never really with the Congress, were wooed through
additional reservations in education; the poor were apparently enticed by
the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme - Sonia Gandhi's great act
of generosity at someone else's expense; the Christians were discreetly told
that it was their own Government; and the country's largest minority was shown
that each day would witness Santa Claus bringing goodies of one description
or another. Not since the mad *raja* even started dressing up like a member
of a particular community have the Muslims of India had it so good.
How come this was not translated into votes?
It now transpires that the Muslim turnout in Mumbai last week was significantly
below the city average of between 48 and 50 per cent. Normally, Muslim turnout
is extremely high and this has helped the community develop a strategic muscle
far in excess of its numbers. Indeed, throughout India saffron poll managers
begin from the assumption that the other side starts with a 20 per cent advantage.
The question is: Why did so many Muslims choose to stay at home?
The phenomenon is certainly bewildering since
the primary beneficiary was the Sena-BJP alliance. Has the debate over the
Rajinder Sachar Committee report made no impact? Has the Congress' unceasing
attempt to placate Muslim sentiment on issues from the singing of *Vande Mataram*
to tentative steps to introduce parallel Islamic banking been counter-productive?
Or, have Muslims been alienated from the Congress because of the Prime Minister's
warm embrace of the Great Satan? The answers are still in the realm of speculation.
However, what can be said with greater certitude-and
this takes into account last year's mayoral election in Uttar Pradesh-is that
the policy of reckless minorityism is generating a countervailing urban reaction.
Since Hindus, as opposed to Muslims, are less inclined to vote along sectarian
lines, people often forget that while Muslims vote, they are not the only
ones who vote. Whether in Mumbai or Meerut or Kanpur, cities where the NDA
faced huge reverses in 2004, we are witnessing a silent Hindu consolidation.
Of all the Congressmen, only former Shiv Sainik Sanjay Nirupam has gauged
this phenomenon. Others are still busy calculating notional bloc votes.
What the Congress should be worried about
is the penchant of Muslim organisations to be permanently aggrieved. One day
it is tearful complaints about heavy-handed policing in the aftermath of the
July 11 blasts, the next day it is the whacko insistence that Special Economic
Zones are specifically targeted against Muslims and on the third it is some
cock and bull story about the need to introduce Islamic banking. What we are
witnessing is the constant shifting of goal posts and the remarkable inclination
of the Congress to play the game according to every set of revised rules.
It is always tempting for the Congress to
blame local leaders for every setback and heap praise on the leader for every
achievement. After the Mumbai polls, the Congress president, it is said, did
not meet the Maharashtra Chief Minister because she was not amused. Was Vilasrao
Deshmukh responsible for the defeat or should Congress leaders be looking
upwards to discover the root of the rot?
