Author: Sandhya Jain
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: January 8, 2008
The assassination of a charismatic but flawed
leader has disguised the reality of a Pakistan that is emerging as a critical
geo-political hub in an increasingly multi-polar world. So far unrecognised,
the 'Caliphate of Pakistan' is adroitly positioning itself in an uncomprehending
world. Mercifully, India has recognised the security implications for itself.
In a concerted strategy, initiated at least
since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, sections of the Pakistani clergy
and Islamised Army (including ISI) have coalesced to give Islam a nation ruled
by sword and shari'ah. Pakistan has impressive military credentials and the
'Islamic bomb'. More pertinently, the American failure to hold Afghanistan
post-September 11, 2001, and the near collapse of the Hamid Karzai regime,
has gifted Islamabad the strategic depth it craved to its west. Radical sections
in Jammu & Kashmir are dying to form its eastern hinterland.
None of this would have been possible but
for the millions of dollars and petro-dollars dexterously extracted by successive
Pakistani regimes from the United States and Saudi Arabia, which have helped
Islamabad jump out of the squalor of underdevelopment to the pinnacle of jihadi
irredentism. Both have funded the Pakistani journey for reasons of their own
-- motives that diverged more than they converged -- and thus bear some responsibility
for the terrible denouement that climaxed in the cold-blooded murder of Benazir
Bhutto.
Washington and Riyadh have multiple agendas,
which they are pursuing with varying levels of success; and, it is no one's
case that there were no other players in the world's most valuable piece of
strategic real estate. Hence it is difficult to say which ball was being juggled
in which hand when bombs detonated in Liaquat Bagh. A credible sequence of
events is impossible to create without full disclosure in several capitals;
still, some points are in order.
In the weeks prior to Bhutto's assassination,
Russian President Vladimir Putin led his United Russia Party to a resounding
victory, and is set to get his nominated successor elected in March 2008.
Kremlin's leadership of the Central Asian gas and oil-rich economies has given
it a lead in the emerging world economic order where the strength of nations
will lie in sovereign resources, a fact understood by China. Uzbekistan's
Islam Karimov, an important Russian ally, returned to power in December 2007.
Press reports reveal that prior to Bhutto's
murder, there were secret talks between the Afghan Taliban and Britain. Given
the obvious inability of the US-led alliance to hold the ground in Afghanistan
or Iraq, and the growing reluctance of native armies to die for private corporate
interests, it seems fair to surmise that a deal was being struck to permit
a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, in return for protection of Western strategic
assets in the
region.
As the Taliban was conceived and mentored
in Islamabad, this would have elated the radical sections of the Army-ISI,
which disliked the half-stitched deal between President Pervez Musharraf and
Benazir Bhutto. The grant of amnesty against allegations of corruption to
Bhutto, whose two terms as Prime Minister were dogged by corruption charges
against her husband, Mr Asif Ali Zardari, and whose enormous assets abroad
defy rational explanation, would hardly have pleased these groups. In the
circumstances, her shrill rhetoric against the jihadis, particularly her promise
to allow hated American troops to hunt for Osama bin Laden in Pakistani territory
and let the International Atomic Energy Agency interrogate nuclear scientist
AQ Khan, would have rendered her immediately expendable.
The Saudi role in the tragedy seems more indirect.
Saudi polity is schizophrenic on account of the absence of credible military
power; most Gulf leaders are forced to rely on the US for security. Riyadh's
quest for modern janissaries led it to fund Pakistan's nuclear ambitions and
radicalisation via madarsas. Saudi money kept Islam Janus-faced in its jihad
against Jews, Crusaders, and Hindus (for Jammu & Kashmir). While incidents
east of the International Dateline help stave off pressure on the West, Islam
recognises its true oppressors, and it is only a matter of time before it
feels emboldened to turn fully westwards.
The murder of the Washington-endorsed 'democrat'
served multiple ends. It reinforced the universal belief that friendship with
America is the kiss of death. It nullified the White House attempt to broker
democracy through Bhutto and Mr Pervez Musharraf. It told Washington that
the disliked mullahs and madarsas still called the shots in Pakistan.
To return to the Saudis, it is pertinent that
unlike Bhutto's family that prides in its links with Oxford University and
the Western elites who acknowledge them only when convenient, Mr Nawaz Sharif
is a conservative politician wary of America. The former Prime Minister chose
Saudi Arabia as his country of exile when ousted by Mr Musharraf; and returned
to Riyadh when denied entry in Islamabad in September 2007. But following
Bhutto's successful homecoming on October 18, 2007, Mr Sharif insisted on
returning to ensure a genuine election. Mr Musharraf made a sudden dash to
Riyadh, and in November, Mr Sharif returned. But soon afterwards, possibly
owing to American pressure to honour the deal with Bhutto, the regime had
Mr Sharif banned from contesting elections for life.
It is now uncertain how the February election
will play out in Pakistan, if held. What is certain is that the bickering
in the Pakistan People's Party and the Bhutto clan has only begun; and, that
the rise of Mr Sharif will enhance Saudi clout in the region and the Islamic
world. Washington, Riyadh and Islamabad have common interests in containing
Shia Iran, but it remains to be seen how long the Muslim world will tolerate
continued Western military presence on its soil along with subservience to
Western geo-eco-strategic objectives.
Whichever way the situation develops, the
Army is sure to stay at the helm of affairs in Pakistan, a temporary reprieve
for America which has invested heavily in this institution. The suspiciously
silent new Army Chief, Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, bears watching. Despite the
rallies, hartals, and street violence, it bears remembering that monotheism
creates institutions that determine the course of the nation. In Pakistan
it is the Army, in America the corporates. Weeks ago, some of us told the
naïve Indian Americans that Ms Hillary Clinton would lose the Iowa primary.
