Author: K.P.S. Gill
Publication: South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR), Volume 7, No. 5
Date: August 11, 2008
URL: http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/sair/
The objective appears to be to gradually transform
the predominantly terrorist movement into a more wide-based movement of political
extremism, backed by calibrated terrorist operations, to secure a stronger
position at the negotiating table and achieve what has not been possible on
the ground through terrorism alone.
*SAIR, Volume 6, No. 30, February 4, 2008*
<http://satp.org/satporgtp/sair/Archives/6_30.htm>
Once again, in one more Indian province, the
extreme fragility of order has been demonstrated. A matter of almost trifling
significance has been allowed to swell - indeed, has been engineered - into
a national crisis. For the past seven years, India has been flaunting data
on declining fatalities in the conflict with Pakistan-backed terrorism in
Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) as evidence of our successes in the State. But
the abrupt meltdown in J&K following upon the approval and subsequent
revocation of the land transfer to the Amarnath Shrine Board sharply underlines
the question of the credibility and competence of the state, and of the legitimacy
of the national and regional leadership among an ever-widening segment of
the population. There is clear evidence of an extraordinary loss of faith,
and the deficit of trust has rapidly augmented into endemic mistrust. Conspiracy
theories abound, and certain, obviously mischievous, elements have been able
to project the formal commitment of a 40 hectare piece of land to a use to
which it has informally been put for decades, as a plot to 'transform the
demography of Kashmir'. The credence that has been given to this ludicrous
canard among the people of Srinagar, and the lip service the idea of 'defending
our land' has subsequently received from some of the most prominent political
actors drawn from the Valley, is evidence of the utter make-believe in which
much of the population exists, and the growing distance between public perceptions
and the Government.
The sequence of developments is fairly clear,
and in any system in which some vestiges of ethical norms had survived, would
have shamed the principal political players. In India, however, the very notion
of shame has been expelled from the realm of politics.
Briefly, the current controversy arises out
of the order of May 26, 2008, sanctioning the diversion of a plot of 39.88
hectares of forest land at Baltal to the Amarnath Shrine Board for the raising
of pre-fabricated (temporary) structures to accommodate pilgrims to the Amarnath
Shrine. No permanent structures were permitted, and permanent residence in
the harsh terrain, which is virtually inaccessible for as much as eight months
in the year, is not possible. Significantly, this was no abrupt decision.
The issue has long been under consideration, and has had a slow and magisterial
passage through various levels of Government, culminating in the eventual
State Cabinet decision, which essentially validated what had already been
passed as an interim order by the Divsional Bench of the J&K High Court
as far back as May 17, 2005, empowering the Shrine Board to use the land to
house pilgrims during the annual Amarnath yatra. Baltal, 93 kilometres from
Srinagar and 16 kilometres from the Amarnath Shrine, is the last staging post
on the pilgrims' route.
Crucially, the People's Democratic Party (PDP),
which was then a partner in the State Government, was integral to the decisions
taken, with various Ministers - including, particularly, the Ministers of
Law and Forests - drawn from this party piloting the proposal and giving it
their unqualified approval. The PDP's conduct thereafter has been nothing
short of disgraceful in the extreme. Immediately after walking out of the
Government, the PDP has made common cause with communal and separatist elements
such as various factions of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), to
mobilize mass and often violent street demonstrations demanding annulment
of the land allocation to the Amarnath Shrine Board, forcing the resignation
of Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, and the imposition of Governor's rule
in the State.
With State Assembly elections around the corner
(to be held by November 2008) and General Elections for Parliament due a few
months later, State and national political formations, all, leapt in to exploit
the situation. In an extraordinary combination of political opportunism, folly
and weakness, the outgoing Azad Government revoked the order of allocation
to the Amarnath Shrine Board on July 1, 2008. The fury that had been whipped
up in the Valley was now mirrored in an even greater fury in the Hindu-dominated
Jammu region, and particularly in Jammu town, which is also a crucial halt
on the Amarnath yatra. Long festering sores - the decades of resentment against
the Valley's discrimination, against terrorism and over the dispossession
and expulsion of more than 400,000 Kashmiri pandits by the Pakistan-backed
terrorists and communalists from the Srinagar region - erupted.
The agitation over the revocation of the land
transfer to the Amarnath Shrine Board entered its 43rd day on August 11, with
the death toll at 11, and over 500 persons injured. Despite political interventions
at the highest levels, moreover, the radical polarization between the Kashmir
Valley and the Jammu region appears to be exacerbating, with religious extremists
on each side occupying increasing space. Worse, every party is making communal
calculations; every party - including those who pretend to make pleas for
greater harmony and reconciliation in the national interest - plays divisive
politics. The space for a truly secular politics in J&K appears to have
been entirely exhausted. While demonstrators in Jammu continue to challenge
the relentless curfew, now in its eleventh day, communal elements, led by
various factions of the APHC, with the PDP now joining in, have declared their
intention to breach the Line of Control (LoC) and 'march to Muzzaffarabad'
in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) to protest the supposed 'economic blockade'
of the Valley imposed by Jammu. The losses that are being incurred by the
present disorders will, obviously, be vastly exaggerated, and will eventually
become another source of perpetual grievance to be exploited by anti-national
elements. The call to march to Muzzaffarabad, in any event, has hardly been
made with any seriousness. It is abundantly clear that no Government worth
its salt will allow the marchers to get anywhere close to the LoC, and the
intention is evidently to internationalize the issue and project a communal
solidarity with Pakistan. Significantly, the 'prime minister' of PoK, Sardar
Attique Ahmed Khan, has declared that 'his people' would 'receive our brethren
with open arms.'
It must be evident how completely these developments
have aided the cause of communalism, separatism and Pakistan's proxy war against
India. For months, now, Pakistan has been trying - largely unsuccessfully
- to raise the temperatures in J&K. There has been a continuous effort,
since early 2007, to orchestrate street demonstrations against alleged 'human
rights violations' by the Security Forces, and to demand a withdrawal of the
Army from the State. These efforts were fairly transparent and were limited
to the handful of separatist fronts well known to be linked to terrorist formations
in the State and to Pakistan - and remained largely unsuccessful. Abruptly,
however, after nearly four years of a ceasefire that had been held without
significant incident, a flurry of ceasefire violations have been initiated
by the Pakistan Army along the LoC. Till August 10, there have already been
20 ceasefire violations on the LoC by Pakistan in 2008 - most of them since
June 2008 - principally in the Poonch and Rajouri areas of Jammu, but with
incidents also reported from the Uri, Kupwara, Tanghdar, Machail and Gurez
sectors. The sheer frequency and intensity of ceasefire violations establish
a pattern of a broad strategy of escalation. Commentators have seen this as
an effort to find a rationale for redeployment of Pakistani Forces along the
LoC and Indian border, in order to justify withdrawals from counter-terrorist
operations in the FATA and NWFP areas, where Pakistan wishes to dilute its
operations against the Taliban and al Qaeda.
Pakistan's intentions are, and long have been,
no secret to observers in this region. But, at a time when they most needed
it, India appears to have provided the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) the
most extraordinary gift in the form of the disorders and communal polarization
that have now arisen out of the self-inflicted wounds in J&K. Even without
the provocations of external agency, these wounds will take an age to heal.
As they are dovetailed into Pakistan's subversive agenda, they will provide
an inexhaustible source of further provocation and violence.
An All Party Delegation, headed by Union Home
Minister Shivraj Patil, has visited J&K in an effort to 'resolve' the
crisis. It is significant, however, that leaders from Jammu and from the Valley
remained unwilling to sit together with the Central team, and had to be met
separately, at Jammu and Srinagar, respectively. Unsurprisingly, the Delegation
appears to have failed to soothe tempers in either region, many politically
correct declarations and speeches notwithstanding. Worse, far from any attempt
to improve the situation, political formations, without exception, continue
to furiously scrape away at the wounds, to keep them bleeding. The PDP, which
participated in the All Party Delegation's deliberations, has joined the 'Muzaffarabad
Chalo' bandwagon. Various national political parties continue to justify their
own actions or criticize rival formations. A Governor's recall has been allowed
to become an issue of public debate, creating a further and grave handicap
in the state's capacities to address the crisis. The Governor himself has
been caught in a predicament not of his own making. Injured egos abound, and
appear to prevail over the national interest. Competitive communalism and
brinkmanship are the core elements of politics in J&K, with parties completely
at odds with each other, scoring points that they think will secure apparent
electoral advantage, but which are progressively undermining national security.
At least some parties appear to be planning
to extend this destructive dynamic beyond J&K, to other parts of the country,
and this portends disaster. Even at the peak of terrorism in the Punjab or
in Kashmir, the threat remained largely confined only to a part of the country.
Today, J&K's ailment and Pakistan's proxy war are already and progressively
afflicting targets across the country.
J&K has been, and, despite repeated failures
and aberrations - including the great and neglected injustice done to the
Kashmiri pandits - will remain, a test case for the success of Indian secularism
and national integration. While separatists and Pakistani proxies have great
reason to celebrate the ongoing disorders in the State, political formations
and leaders committed to the national cause need urgently to pause and introspect
on the consequences of the current course they have variously adopted.
- President, Institute for Conflict Management;
Publisher, SAIR