Author: Eli Lake
Publication: The Sun
Date: September 22, 2008
URL: http://www.nysun.com/foreign/spies-warn-that-al-qaeda-aims-for-october-surprise/86326/
Intercepted Messages Asking Local Cells To
Be Prepared for Imminent Instructions
In the aftermath of two major terrorist attacks
on Western targets, America's counterterrorism community is warning that Al
Qaeda may launch more overseas operations to influence the presidential elections
in November.
Call it Osama bin Laden's "October surprise."
In late August, during the weekend between the Democratic and Republican conventions,
America's military and intelligence agencies intercepted a series of messages
from Al Qaeda's leadership to intermediate members of the organization asking
local cells to be prepared for imminent instructions.
An official familiar with the new intelligence
said the message was picked up in multiple settings, from couriers to encrypted
electronic communications to other means. "These are generic orders,"
the source said - a distinction from the more specific intelligence about
the location, time, and method of an attack. "It was, 'Be on notice.
We may call upon you soon.' It was sent out on many channels."
Also, Yemen's national English-language newspaper
is reporting that a spokesman for Yemen's Islamic Jihad, the Qaeda affiliate
that claimed credit for last week's American embassy bombing in Sa'naa, is
now publicly threatening to attack foreigners and high government officials
if American and British diplomats do not leave the country.
Mr. bin Laden has sought to influence democratic
elections in the past. On March 11, 2004, Al Qaeda carried out a series of
bombings on Madrid commuter trains. Three days later, the opposition and anti-Iraq
war Socialist Workers Party was voted into power.
In the week before the 2004 American presidential
election, Mr. bin Laden recorded a video message to the American people promising
repercussions if President Bush were re-elected. In later messages, Al Qaeda's
leader claimed credit for helping elect Mr. Bush in 2004. Last year in Pakistan,
Qaeda assassins claimed the life of Benazir Bhutto, a former prime minister
who returned to her native country in a bid for re-election.
"There is an expectation that Al Qaeda
will try to influence the November elections by attempting attacks globally,"
a former Bush and Clinton White House counterterrorism official, Roger Cressey,
said yesterday.
Mr. Cressey said Al Qaeda lacks the capability
to pull off an attack in the continental United States, however. "It
would likely be a higher Al Qaeda tempo of attacks against U.S. and allied
targets abroad," he said.
At a talk at the Washington Institute for
Near East Affairs on August 12, the national intelligence officer for transnational
threats said he expected to see more threat reporting on Al Qaeda as America
approaches the November elections.
The terrorist attack on the Marriott Hotel
in Islamabad on Saturday was a particular blow to the allied effort against
Al Qaeda. The hotel's lobby in recent years served as a meeting place for
the CIA and Pakistanis who would not risk being seen at the American Embassy.
The bombing, which targeted one of the most heavily fortified locations in
Pakistan's capital, will likely claim close to 100 lives after the dead are
pulled from the rubble.
President Zardari, who had just given his
first major address as Pakistan's head of state, on fighting the Taliban and
Al Qaeda, was the target of Saturday's attack, the vice president for research
at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, said.
"He was expected to attend the iftar
dinner at the Marriott," Mr. Gartenstein-Ross said "Think of the
symbolic value if they were able to kill Zardari after his first address as
president of Pakistan in a speech announcing his fight against the terrorists.
The symbolic effect of the attack on the same day would be devastating."
An adviser to Senator McCain and a former
director of central intelligence under President Clinton, James Woolsey, said
Al Qaeda has a "history of doing three things at least related to elections.
One is to attack before elections, such as in 2004 in Spain, and of course
the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. They also have a history of attacks when
new leaders take over, like Gordon Brown in Britain and the new leader in
Pakistan, with the attack over the weekend. Also Al Qaeda sends messages to
populations in elections. You really don't know which one of these they are
going to implement."
Earlier this summer, another McCain campaign
official mused in an interview that an attack could benefit his candidate
in the polls. But whether that statement is true is unclear: At the Republican
National Convention this month, Mr. McCain praised the president's counterterrorism
policies for preventing an attack in America since September 11, 2001. The
Bush administration has deliberately refrained from pointing to this success
in light of the many plots that the president has said have been aborted on
American soil since September 11.
The deputy communications director for the
McCain campaign, Michael Goldfarb, said: "There is no doubt that Al Qaeda
is still dangerous and still desires to strike at America and our allies.
But Americans will not be intimidated and their votes will not be swayed by
terror."
A spokeswoman for the Obama campaign, Wendy
Morigi, said, "Last week's attacks demonstrate the grave and urgent threat
that Al Qaeda and its affiliates pose to the United States and the security
of all nations. As Senator Obama has said for some time, we must refocus our
efforts on defeating Al Qaeda around the world."