Author: G Parthasarathy
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: April 16, 2009
URL: http://www.dailypioneer.com/169842/Pakistan-slips-into-anarchy.html
The American Special Representative for 'AfPak',
Mr Richard Holbrooke, while expressing appreciation for India's "full
support" for the reconstruction of Afghanistan, noted in Delhi on April
8 that "for the first time since partition India, Pakistan and the US
face a common threat" and "we must work together and at the centre
of the problem, which is Pakistan". Mr Holbrooke was in Delhi with America's
most senior military official, Admiral Mike Mullen, who is regarded as a thorough
professional.
Mr Holbrooke and Admiral Mullen arrived in
Delhi after an unusually tempestuous visit to Pakistan, where they got a taste
of Pakistani duplicity and doublespeak. True to form, the Pakistanis denied
Admiral Mullen's assertion that the ISI was providing haven and support to
the Taliban leadership in Quetta and to Taliban commanders like Jalaluddin
Haqqani. The American delegation was also subjected to the strange spectacle
of President Asif Ali Zardari virtually holding out the begging bowl for more
economic assistance, while Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureishi
pontificated about his country refusing to accept aid with any strings attached!
The Americans now openly refer to Pakistani
'paranoia' about India. The Pakistanis make no bones about justifying support
for the Taliban on the grounds that every one of the 4,000 Indians involved
in economic assistance in Afghanistan is a 'spy', out to undermine Pakistan's
security. While Admiral Mullen claims periodically that Gen Ashfaq Parvez
Kayani is sincere in his determination to root out Taliban extremism, other
reports suggest that the CIA has evidence of Gen Kayani describing Jalaluddin
Haqqani as a "strategic asset".
Moreover, the Americans know that the July
2007 attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul was executed by the 'Haqqani network'
with clearance and support from the highest levels of the Pakistani Army and
the ISI. The Americans can no longer ignore the close nexus that exists between
the Taliban, on the one hand, and Jihadi groups operating against India from
Pakistan's Punjab Province, on the other. Hence, one now hears louder American
insistence that Pakistan must end support to all terrorist groups, whether
operating against Afghanistan or India.
The question that is being asked internationally
is whether US President Barak Obama's new strategy in Afghanistan will work.
The main military elements in this strategy are a 'surge' in American troop
strength to deal with an expected summer offensive by the Taliban, while making
it clear to the Taliban leadership that they cannot win militarily. This is
to be supplemented by boosting the strength of the Afghan National Army from
80,000 to 134,000 men and equipping and training it for effective counter-insurgency.
This could pave the way for a gradual reduction
in the American military role before the next US presidential election though
a long-term American military presence in places like Kandahar appears likely.
Politically, the aim is to take development projects to the grassroots with
substantial increase in international economic assistance. Diplomatically,
the process of restoring peace in Afghanistan is to be facilitated by bringing
in key regional and neighbouring countries like Iran, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan,
Turkey, Russia, China and India to ensure full international support for the
effort. Hopefully the US will avoid the temptation of interfering in the coming
election in Afghanistan.
The Americans seem to have curbed their earlier
enthusiasm for involving the so-called 'moderate Taliban' in a process of
reconciliation. They have found that the entire Taliban leadership, under
Pakistani protection, has no interest in joining a process in which they have
to renounce violence and sit together with other Afghans who do not share
their virulently extremist views.
But the real difficulty the international
community is going to face is that despite its professions of innocence, the
Pakistani military establishment has no intention of giving up either its
quest for 'strategic depth' in Afghanistan by backing the Taliban, or its
determination to continue to 'bleed India' by backing groups like the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba
and the Jaish-e-Mohammed that make no secret of their support for the Taliban
and their belief that "Hindus, Jews and Christians are enemies of Islam".
The Americans are taking several steps to
deal with Pakistani obduracy. The proposed five-year economic assistance package
of $ 7.5 billion is being linked to Pakistan ending its support to terrorist
groups, with the US House of Representatives asking for access to Dr AQ Khan
and his associates who were involved in the transfer of nuclear technology
to Libya, Iran and North Korea. The US is also likely to insist that other
aid donors place similar conditions. Military assistance will be largely provided
for enhancing anti-insurgency capabilities and not for items like F16 fighters
for deployment against India.
Will this strategy work, given Pakistan's
propensity to blackmail the world by claiming that its economy will collapse
and its nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of Islamic extremists if
foreign assistance ends? Will threats to cut off US military assistance have
any effect when China continues to provide Pakistan not just conventional
weapons like JF17 and J10 fighters and naval frigates but also assistance
for plutonium warheads and cruise missiles?
Even as Pakistan plays these diplomatic games,
the situation within that country is spiralling out of control. The ISI-backed
jihadi groups allied to the Taliban have indulged in attacks on Shia mosques
and even eliminated the leadership of the Sufi-oriented Bareilvi sect. With
virtually the entire North-West Frontier Province under Taliban control, Islamic
radicalism is spreading through southern Punjab into towns from where officers
and soldiers of the Pakistani Army are recruited.
The Pakistani Army itself is getting radicalised,
reflecting sociological trends within the Punjabi heartland. Moreover, the
Punjabi military elite in Pakistan do not relish the prospect of fighting
Pashtuns. It is, therefore, unrealistic for the Americans to expect the Pakistani
Army to have either the will or the inclination to deal with the Pashtun Taliban.
The Americans now appear to better understand
the fragilities and failings of the Pakistani state. With American supply
convoys being regularly attacked within Pakistan, the US and its NATO allies
are finalising agreements with Russia, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan,
Kyrgyzstan and even Iran to provide alternate supply routes to Afghanistan,
thus eroding the strategic salience of Pakistan.
However, with the Pakistani Army bent on retaining
its jihadi infrastructure, would the US have any choice but to permit the
Afghan Army, which is being built up, to play a more pro-active role in guarding
Afghanistan's border against Taliban incursions from Pakistani soil? In this
volatile scenario, India will have to devise new and more effective strategies
to guarantee national security.
