Author: Kanchan Gupta
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: May 13, 2009
URL: http://www.dailypioneer.com/175781/Left's-crucial-test-today.html
On Tuesday, a day before the third and final
round of voting in West Bengal where polling will take place in 11 parliamentary
constituencies, as many as 10 of them with sitting Left MPs, in North and
South 24 Parganas, three leading newspapers published from Kolkata highlighted
three different aspects of an election that could mark a turning point in
the State's politics, overwhelmingly dominated by the CPI(M) for more than
three decades.
Bartaman, the Bengali language newspaper which
since its inception has struck a stridently anti-Left posture and is seen
as the 'voice' of the Opposition in West Bengal, ran a banner headline on
Tuesday's front page, informing its readers that the "CPI(M) is all set
for extensive rigging". The story does not provide specifics of how the
Marxists plan to rig the polls, but it indicates the possibility of party
cadre being unleashed on voters to terrorise them. During this election Bartaman
has published stories about electronic voting machines being 'rigged' to ensure
the victory of Left candidates. In the past, this particular allegation has
remained unsubstantiated. But it is a fact that potential anti-Left voters
often find their names missing from the electoral rolls.
The first two rounds of polling in the State
have been by and large peaceful. By West Bengal's standards, the level of
violence could be described as 'negligible'. Hence, neither the Trinamool
Congress nor its ally, the Congress, can allege that force was used to keep
anti-Left voters away from polling booths. While it remains to be seen whether
the final round of voting will be any different, and whether Marxist leaders
and their cadre take recourse to intimidation to prevent Trinamool Congress
supporters from voting, it is a fact that the CPI(M) and its allies are worried
about their prospects in these crucial 11 constituencies.
In the 2004 general election, the CPI(M) had
virtually wiped out the Trinamool Congress from North and South 24 Parganas,
which were till then perceived as Ms Mamata Banerjee's stronghold. Barring
Ms Banerjee, all her nominees lost the election; she won with a reduced margin.
The CPI(M) repeated that feat in the 2006 Assembly election.
But between 2006 and 2008, the situation has
changed radically to the disadvantage of the CPI(M). The farmland-for-industry
policy of the Left Front Government has met with popular resistance, most
notably (and with disastrous consequences) in Singur, where Tata Motors had
to abandon its small car project, and Nandigram, where land acquisition for
a proposed Special Economic Zone that was to have been set up by Indonesia's
Salim Group could not proceed beyond a notice put up at the BDO's office.
Ms Banerjee has been in the forefront of the agitation against this policy.
Small and marginal farmers, fearful of losing their land, their only possession,
have rallied behind the Trinamool Congress's flag.
The farmers' agitation and their success in
forcing the Government - and the all-powerful 'Party' - to back off has emboldened
others who have been nursing a variety of grievances against local CPI(M)
leaders. For a long time people, among them sympathisers of the Left, have
been resentful about the high-handedness of the Marxist cadre, but felt either
helpless or were scared of taking a stand. Now they feel neither helpless
nor scared.
The results of last year's panchayat elections
were an indication of the simmering discontent with the Left Front Government
prevailing in West Bengal's villages boiling over, especially in the southern
districts of the State. The Trinamool Congress swept the panchayat elections
in what were considered as bastions of the Left Front, breaching the Marxists'
rural stronghold.
The import of the panchayat polls is being
felt in this summer's parliamentary election. The Left is facing a reversal
in rural areas and, strangely, is on a stronger wicket in urban areas, which
till now have voted against the CPI(M). Delimitation has resulted in large
swathes of rural areas being made part of urban constituencies like Jadavpur
in Kolkata.
Two years ago, this would have meant good
news for the Left. Today, it means advantage Trinamool Congress. This is most
palpable in North and South 24 Parganas. Hence, the deepening sense of alarm
in the Left. The Trinamool Congress could notch up a sizeable tally if it
performs well on Wednesday and, together with the Congress, bag upwards of
14 seats in the State.
On the other hand, if the CPI(M) is able to
checkmate its political foe, it could minimise its losses. For that, the Marxists
are willing to do whatever it takes. Old networks have been revived, favours
are being called in and cadre have been asked to mobilise the faithful and
ensure they come out and vote, notwithstanding the scorching heat.
Anandabazar Patrika, the leading Bengali language
daily published from Kolkata, has played up two stories. The first is about
maverick Marxist, Transport Minister and Jyoti Basu loyalist Subhas Chakraborty
lashing out at Polit Bureau members who "sit in air-conditioned rooms
and frame policies based on theory", and daring them to contest elections.
According to the newspaper, although Mr Chakraborty has not taken any names,
his reference is to CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat and Polit Bureau
members Sitaram Yechury and Brinda Karat.
The second story, which has been displayed
more prominently, is about Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee's sharp
criticism of the Trinamool Congress and Ms Banerjee's equally harsh rejoinder
- sort of a media generated debate. The charges and counter-charges have been
classified under three heads: Ideology, Muslims and Singur.
Mr Bhattacharjee: "The Opposition has
no ideological mooring. It is politically bankrupt. It lacks discipline and
is anti-development."
Ms Banerjee: "He should mind his language.
The Left is politically bankrupt. That is why they are maligning us."
Mr Bhattacharjee: "They are playing dangerous
politics with Muslims. This is not the culture of this State."
Ms Banerjee: "Must we learn culture from
the man who is dangerous for the people of Bengal?"
Mr Bhattacharjee: "Why should I apologise
for Singur? We will set up industry there. A decision will be taken after
the election."
Ms Banerjee: "He will have to go to Singur,
seek forgiveness, rub his nose in the dirt and return the land to the farmers."
Ideology is really not an issue in this election
in West Bengal. It ceased to be so long ago. Cynics would suggest that both
the Left and the Trinamool Congress are politically bankrupt; the Congress
was never burdened by ideology.
What is an issue is the Muslim vote, which
has been the Congress's mainstay in north Bengal and integral to the Left's
core support in south Bengal. This time, Muslims are rooting for Ms Banerjee.
Comprising nearly a quarter (unofficially, a third) of the population, Muslims
can play a decisive role and their vote can be the 'game changer'. Ms Banerjee
has played on Muslim insecurities, especially about land.
The Jamiat Ulama-i-Hind has added to Muslim
angst by using its vast network of ulema to publicise the findings of the
Sachar Committee which, ironically, show that Muslims are worse off in CPI(M)-ruled
West Bengal than in Mr Narendra Modi's Gujarat. The Jamiat has fielded a dozen
odd candidates, but the real beneficiary of its relentless campaign on the
Sachar Committee report is the Trinamool Congress.
Which brings us to the issue of Singur and
industrialisation of West Bengal. The Telegraph's main front page story is
headlined: "Maa, mati, manush: Sounds nice but not for son who won't
farm". The Trinamool Congress's campaign is built around the slogan of
"Maa, mati, manush" (mother, land and people), playing on the sentiments
of rural Bengal. The story raises an interesting question: If West Bengal's
farmers are so attached to their land and their livelihood, why would 45.5
per cent of them dislike what they do, compared to 40 per cent nationally?
Elections are a tricky affair. Not till the
last vote is counted can results be predicted with any certitude. "The
people of West Bengal want to usher change," Mr Saugata Roy, Trinamool
Congress candidate for Dum Dum constituency, told me in Kolkata. "This
is going to be an election for change." He could be right. We will get
to know for sure on Saturday.
