Author: Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt
Publication: The New York Times
Date: May 10, 2009
As Taliban militants push deeper into Pakistan's
settled areas, foreign operatives of Al Qaeda who had focused on plotting
attacks against the West are seizing on the turmoil to sow chaos in Pakistan
and strengthen the hand of the militant Islamist groups there, according to
American and Pakistani intelligence officials.
One indication came April 19, when a truck
parked inside a Qaeda compound in South Waziristan, in Pakistan's tribal areas,
erupted in a fireball when it was struck by a C.I.A. missile. American intelligence
officials say that the truck had been loaded with high explosives, apparently
to be used as a bomb, and that while its ultimate target remains unclear,
the bomb would have been more devastating than the suicide bombing that killed
more than 50 people at the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad in September.
Al Qaeda's leaders - a predominantly Arab
group of Egyptians, Saudis and Yemenis, as well as other nationalities like
Uzbeks - for years have nurtured ties to Pakistani militant groups like the
Taliban operating in the mountains of Pakistan. The foreign operatives have
historically set their sights on targets loftier than those selected by the
local militant groups, aiming for spectacular attacks against the West, but
they may see new opportunity in the recent violence.
Intelligence officials say the Taliban advances
in Swat and Buner, which are closer to Islamabad than to the tribal areas,
have already helped Al Qaeda in its recruiting efforts. The officials say
the group's recruiting campaign is currently aimed at young fighters across
the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia who are less inclined to plan
and carry out far-reaching global attacks and who have focused their energies
on more immediate targets.
"They smell blood, and they are intoxicated
by the idea of a jihadist takeover in Pakistan," said Bruce O. Riedel,
a former analyst for the C.I.A. who recently led the Obama administration's
policy review of Pakistan and Afghanistan.
It remains unlikely that Islamic militants
could seize power in Pakistan, given the strength of Pakistan's military,
according to American intelligence analysts. But a senior American intelligence
official expressed concern that recent successes by the Taliban in extending
territorial gains could foreshadow the creation of "mini-Afghanistans"
around Pakistan that would allow militants even more freedom to plot attacks.
American government officials and terrorism
experts said that Al Qaeda's increasing focus on a local strategy was partly
born from necessity, as the C.I.A.'s intensifying airstrikes have reduced
the group's ability to hit targets in the West. The United States has conducted
17 drone attacks so far this year, including one on Saturday, according to
American officials and Pakistani news accounts, compared with 36 strikes in
all of 2008.
According to a Pakistani intelligence assessment
provided to The New York Times in February, Al Qaeda has adapted to the deaths
of its leaders by shifting "to conduct decentralized operations under
small but well-organized regional groups" within Pakistan and Afghanistan.
At the same time, the group has intensified its recruiting, to replace its
airstrike casualties.
One of Al Qaeda's main goals in Pakistan,
the assessment said, was to "stage major terrorist attacks to create
a feeling of insecurity, embarrass the government and retard economic development
and political progress."
The Qaeda operatives are foreigners inside
Pakistan, and experts say that the group's leaders, like Osama bin Laden and
his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, appear to be wary of claiming credit for the
violence in the country, possibly creating popular backlash against the group.
"They are trying to take an Arab face
off this," said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University.
"If you look at Al Qaeda as a brand,
they know when to broadcast the brand, as the group has done in North Africa,"
Mr. Hoffman said. "And they know when to cloak the brand, as it has done
in Pakistan."
As a result, it is difficult for American
officials to assess exactly which recent attacks in Pakistan are the work
of Qaeda operatives. But intelligence officials say they believe that the
Marriott Hotel bombing was partly planned by Usama al-Kini, a Kenyan Qaeda
operative who was killed in Pakistan by a C.I.A. drone on New Year's Day.
According to Mr. Hoffman, Al Qaeda may be
trying to achieve a separate goal: getting the C.I.A. to call off its campaign
of airstrikes in the tribal areas. A wave of terrorist violence could foment
so much popular discontent with the government of President Asif Ali Zardari,
he said, that Pakistan might then try to pressure the Obama administration
to scale back its drone campaign.
For now, however, Obama administration officials
say they believe that the covert airstrikes are the best tool at their disposal
to strike at Al Qaeda inside Pakistan, which remains the group's most important
haven, but where large numbers of American combat forces would never be welcome.
The April 19 strike that hit what appeared
to have been a truck bomb in a compound used by Al Qaeda set off an enormous
secondary explosion, intelligence officials say. A second, empty truck destroyed
in the same attack may also have been there to be outfitted with explosives,
they say.
In another significant attack, on April 29,
missiles fired from a C.I.A. Predator killed Abu Sulayman al-Jazairi, an Algerian
Qaeda planner who American intelligence officials say they believe helped
train operatives for attacks in Europe and the United States.
Still, officials caution that Al Qaeda has
not abandoned its goal of "spectacular" attacks in the United States
and Europe. According to one American counterterrorism official, the group
continues to plan attacks outside its sanctuary in the tribal areas, aiming
at targets in the West and elsewhere in Pakistan.
"They are opportunistic to the extent
they perceive vulnerabilities with the uncertain nature of Pakistani politics
and the security situation in Swat and Buner," said the American counterterrorism
official, who like other officials interviewed for this article was not authorized
to speak publicly on intelligence issues. "They're trying to exploit
it."
In meetings this past week in Washington,
American and Pakistani officials discussed the possibility of limited joint
operations with American Predator and Reaper drones.
Under one proposal, the United States would
retain control over the firing of missiles, but it would share with the Pakistani
security forces some sophisticated imagery and communications intercepts that
could be relayed to Pakistani combat forces on the ground.
C.I.A. officials for months have resisted
requests by Mr. Zardari to share the drone technology. In a television interview
broadcast Sunday, the Pakistani leader said he would keep pressing to get
his own Predator fleet.
"I've been asking for them, but I haven't
got a positive answer as yet," Mr. Zardari said on NBC's "Meet the
Press."
"But I'm not giving up."
Correction: An earlier version of this article
misstated the number of drone strikes that American officials say the United
States has conducted against Al Qaeda so far this year. It is 17 strikes,
not 16.
