Author: Kanchan Gupta
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: May 17, 2009
URL: http://dailypioneer.com/176634/A-battle-is-lost-but-not-the-war.html
Atal Bihari Vajpayee was given to moments
of jocular frivolity at times of great stress, for instance on the eve of
election results. At the fag end of the 1999 election campaign, a senior journalist
asked him what would rate as one of the most banal, if not asinine, questions:
"Mr Vajpayee, who do you think will emerge winner?" Without batting
his eyelids, Mr Vajpayee replied, "Of course the BJP." That was
contrary to what opinion polls, including one commissioned by his party, were
saying: The Congress, according to pollsters, had an edge over the BJP. Later
that evening, I made a passing reference to the ease with which he was predicting
a BJP victory in the face of a concerted Congress assault. Mr Vajpayee laughed
it off and then said, "Nobody can predict the outcome of an election,
never mind what politicians and pollsters say." Placing three fingers
of his right hand face down on his left palm, he added, "Any election
is like a game of 'teen patti' (three-card game). Till such time you turn
the cards and see them, you can only guess what has been dealt to you. Similarly,
till the votes are counted, nobody can say with any certitude what lies in
store for the contestants."
On the face of it, such wisdom may appear
commonplace. After all, veterans of electoral wars would be the first to agree
that no battle is won or lost till the last vote is counted. Yet, come election
time and every politician and pollster tries to outguess the voter, more often
than not coming to grief. The 1999 opinion polls, including the one commissioned
by the BJP, turned out to be way off the mark. The BJP and its allies were
returned to power with a majority of their own; the Congress had to eat humble
pie. So also with the exit polls that were telecast 72 hours before the results
of the 2009 general election were declared on Saturday - they didn't quite
forecast such a stunningly stupendous performance by the Congress and the
BJP's astonishing failure to meet its own expectations, fuelled by internal
assessments that failed to reflect the popular mood. Whoever predicted on
the basis of an 'exit poll', and thereby made the party look silly on Saturday,
that the NDA would get 217 seats compared to the UPA's 176 owes more than
a mere explanation.
The Congress, no doubt, has won a splendid
victory; not to accept this fact would be sheer cussedness. Having said that,
it would be equally incorrect to subscribe to the view that at the moment
the Congress is riding the crest of a tidal popularity wave which in the coming
days will turn into a tsunami of support for the party. Yes, the Congress
has made stupendous gains, but a close scrutiny of the results will show that
they are not entirely at the expense of the BJP. Nor have the gains accrued
to the Congress on account of either policy or programme. For instance, the
Congress has picked up a large number of seats in Kerala and West Bengal for
reasons that are entirely different. In Kerala, the Left has paid a huge price
for infighting within the CPI(M) that has spilled into the streets: A divided
cadre couldn't get their act together. In West Bengal, the Left has been decimated
because popular resentment with the CPI(M) for the various sins of omission
and commission of the Marxists reached tipping point in this election, helped
in large measure by the alliance between the Trinamool Congress and the Congress.
In States where the BJP has lost seats to
the Congress, the credit largely goes to saboteurs within the party. It is
no secret that a section of the BJP worked against the party's nominees in
certain constituencies in Madhya Pradesh. In Rajasthan, the reasons that led
to the BJP's defeat in last year's Assembly election remain unresolved. In
Uttarakhand, infighting has led to the BJP's rout. In Jammu & Kashmir,
the BJP could have won in Udhampur and Jammu if the local party units had
not abandoned the candidates whom they saw as 'outsiders'. In Maharashtra,
the BJP failed to correctly assess the strength of Mr Raj Thackeray's MNS
which has turned out to be a spoiler in Mumbai's urban constituencies where
the party stood a good chance of winning. By default, the Congress has benefited
on account of the BJP's deficiencies. Nowhere is this more evident than in
Uttar Pradesh where the BJP clearly failed to sense the shift in voter preference
and ended up under-estimating its ability to pick up additional seats which
have now gone to the Congress, swelling its national tally.
These reasons apart, at the end of the day
what emerges is that the Congress has reached where it has on account of four
factors whose impact could not have been predicted at any stage during the
campaign when popular mood is palpable. First, the 'Chiru factor' has put
paid to the TDP's hopes of staging a comeback. The Congress has gained in
the process. Second, the 'Vijaykant factor' has spiked the AIADMK's electoral
prospects. The 'Black MGR of Tamil Nadu politics' has turned out to be a classic
spoiler. Third, the 'Mamata factor' was never seriously factored in, especially
by the Left, while calculating the possible outcome of this election. Ironically,
the amazing collapse of the Left has worked to the detriment of the BJP. Fourth,
the 'urban factor' continues to elude logical interpretation. If the voting
trend is any indication, we must come to the conclusion, and regretfully so,
that India's middleclass is no longer guided by the moral compass. Nothing
else explains why corruption should cease to be an election issue and the
brazen exoneration by the Congress of those who have looted India fetch no
more than a cynical, couldn't-care-less response. It is equally surprising
that the middleclass should have chosen to overlook the mishandling of the
national economy by the UPA Government and the pitiable state of internal
security. We would have thought that these are concerns that agitate the middleclass
the most since they shout the most about corruption, price rise and terrorism.
There is, however, no percentage in looking
back. The BJP remains a national alternative to the Congress, more so after
this election which has pushed regional parties and their identity politics
to the margins of national politics. The BJP's tally is nothing to scoff at.
There is no shame in sitting in the Opposition and preparing for the next
battle. Elections come and go, but parties remain. It is for their leaders
to use the interregnum to reflect on mistakes, regain organisational strength
and revive hope among the faithful. There are, after all, no full stops in
politics, and life does not come to an end with the declaration of results.
