Author: A. Surya Prakash
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: May 20, 2009.
URL: http://www.dailypioneer.com/177181/BJP-failed-due-to-problems-within.html
Verdict 2009 is in and the people have renewed
the mandate for the Congress-led UPA in an unambiguous manner. Although the
alliance has marginally fallen short of the magical 272 needed for a clear
majority in the Lok Sabha, the massive increase in the strength of the Congress
in the House and the 100-seat lead that the UPA has secured over the NDA headed
by the BJP has left no scope for speculation on who the winner is. It has
also squashed the ambitions of many bit players who have been playing a disruptive
role in national politics and put out of business many wheeler-dealers who
were waiting for May 16 to make a killing.
The results indicate a grand revival of the
fortunes of at least one national party. Second, the Congress it appears enjoys
far greater credibility than the BJP among voters. And, finally, the clout
of the Communists in national affairs, which has been grossly disproportionate
to their known sources of electoral support, has been substantially reduced.
As regards the rout of the BJP and its alliance,
the truth is that the voters saw the Congress as the more credible alternative.
The BJP could not have had a more conducive environment to trounce the ruling
coalition. The country witnessed the most horrific and audacious terrorist
assault when 10 fidayeen held Mumbai and the nation to ransom last November;
the people have been groaning under inflation and economic slowdown; despite
mounting scandals and charges of corruption against some Ministers, the Prime
Minister remained helpless; the Government seemed paralysed when it came to
joining the global movement against secrecy rules in Swiss banks; and, the
Prime Minister gifted away $ 7.3 million to a fugitive called Ottavio Quattrocchi
by unlocking his bank accounts in the UK apart from ensuring that this Italian
friend of the Gandhis was taken off the Interpol list.
Even a couple of these issues would have been
enough for an Opposition party to exploit in an election, but as the results
have shown, that was not to be. The BJP appeared to be meandering and floundering
throughout the two-month-long campaign. It raised these issues no doubt, but
failed to connect with the voters. Equally disappointing was the party's performance
on the coalition meter. Several of its partners were ready to ditch it around
election time. Several others are packing their bags after the election results
came in. This says a lot for the political wisdom of the BJP's top brass.
Here are some disturbing statistics for BJP
sympathisers: The party polled 86.40 million votes as against 103 million
votes polled by the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections held in 1999. In 2004,
the party secured 22.16 per cent of the votes as against the Congress's 26.53
per cent.
Far from widening its base, the party's vote-share
has certainly shrunk in this election. First indications are that the BJP
has got just 19 per cent of the 400 million votes cast in this election, which
means the total votes in its kitty has dropped by 10 million. The Congress's
vote-share, on the other hand, has risen by at least three per cent, which
means the difference in the vote-share of the two parties has increased from
just over 16 million in 2004 to a staggering 34 million in 2009.
Why did the BJP fare so badly? The reasons
are many, but here are a few. The first of these is that there is no indication
that the party has learnt even a single lesson from its crushing defeat in
2004. There was no credibility in anything that the party said, be it on terrorism,
corruption or relations with the US. Having released dreaded terrorists during
the Kandahar crisis, it did not lie in the BJP's mouth to attack the Manmohan
Singh Government on 26/11. That is why the party could not convert even 26/11
into votes.
Nor could the BJP encash the corruption of
UPA Ministers: Of the 15 scamster MPs caught on tape taking cash to ask questions
or sanction projects under the MPLADS Scheme, eight were from the BJP. This
party also has the distinction of having an MP who was found involved in human
trafficking. He was smuggling people into Canada on passports given to members
of his family! The list is endless
Indiscipline at the top, with many leaders
pursuing their own personal agendas at the cost of the party and the larger
movement to which they belong, is yet another factor. Fourth, some of the
most arrogant and conceited politicians can be found in this party. They lack
the humility to listen to others and they are beyond learning. Last, there
is no party high command, as in the Congress or the CPI(M), and therefore
many party leaders are answerable to no one and are beyond party discipline.
Is the BJP capable of sincere introspection
and course correction? Given the party's track record post-2004, I would not
put my money on this.
The other significant outcome is the marginalisation
of the Left. Electoral data shows that in recent times the vote-share of the
two Communist parties - the CPI(M) and the CPI - has hovered around seven
per cent. In 2004, the CPI (M) secured 5.66 per cent and the CPI got 1.41
per cent of the votes.
But, as all television viewers and newspaper
readers know, this is inversely proportional to their media presence. Communists
and their sympathisers in the media have always ensured a disproportionate
media presence for them and this has beguiled leaders of these parties into
thinking that the entire country is at their command.
If you just go by the airtime taken by CPI
leader D Raja and listen to his shrill injunctions and threats, you are certain
to forget that you live in a vibrant democracy. You will probably think that
you are caught in the midst of an ideological battle between two strands of
Communism in a totalitarian state. Those who wish to see an end to the era
of lopsided media presence of Communists will certainly hope that the Lok
Sabha election results will have a salutary effect on dispensers of media
space, and TV viewers will be spared the spurious lectures on democracy by
Mr 1.41 per cent!
