Author: G Parthasarathy
Publication: The Tribune India
Date: January 16, 2013
URL: http://www.tribuneindia.com/2013/20130116/edit.htm#4

Introduction: Public anger at the decline of governance

While the world celebrated the advent of the New Year and firecrackers lit the skies, people across India heaved a sigh of relief that the year 2012 had finally ended. The last year was marked by a declining economic growth rate, continuing high inflation, anger at growing corruption and a gang rape in Delhi that shamed the country, for being insensitive to the safety and security of women. More importantly, what irked people most was the belief that they were being ruled by a government and a political class, insensitive to their aspirations and concerns on corruption, inflation and the growing crimes against women. The credibility of the political class was not enhanced by the fact that 162 Members of Parliament face criminal charges, including two charged with sexual assault and abuse.

While public anger at the decline in the standards of governance grew, India saw a decline in its own international standing as a fast-growing, “emerging” economy. There was considerable international attention focused on corruption scandals like “Coalgate”. But, India had to face the ignominy, for the first time in its history, of a virtual censure by the UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, who condemned violence against women and called for “steps and reforms to deter such crimes and bring perpetrators to justice”. This was all the more agonising as it came for an individual who had lived three years in India and has an Indian son-in-law. The New York Times described India as a country “which basks in its growing success as a business and technological Mecca, but tolerates shocking abuses of women”. But, the most telling comment came from Pakistan’s “Braveheart,” the 15 year old Malala Yousufzai. Alluding to the suffering of the victim, Malala remarked: “The rapists dumped her on the road. The Government dumped her in Singapore. What’s the difference?”

The year 2012 also saw the lustre of being an “emerging economic powerhouse” that India had assiduously built up over the last decade, fade. In June last year, Moody’s scaled down its forecast of India’s economic growth to 5.5% as against 6.5% in the last fiscal year. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh responded by saying: “I am hopeful we will do better than the 6.5% growth performance of last year”. With the RBI forecasting a growth of less than 6%, even the most optimistic today will acknowledge that growth this year is going to be well below last year.

More importantly, those who look at the economic scene in India are convinced that with elections due in 2014, the government will return to its propensity for fiscal profligacy, with schemes like food security, and that it will not be able to reach its target of reducing the fiscal deficit. On December 11, international ratings agency Standard and Poor’s warned that India still faced a one in three chance of a downgrade of its sovereign rating to “junk grade” in the next 24 months, citing its high fiscal deficit and debt burden.

The fiscal profligacy is telling adversely on national security. It has been reported that essential capital acquisitions of fighter aircraft, mountain artillery, night fighting capability, anti-tank missiles and even in the raising a Strike Corps for deployment on the eastern borders, are being postponed. In the run-up to the next elections, populism will inevitably prevail over national security -- a development which would be carefully noted in Beijing and Rawalpindi.

Added to this, one cannot but be shocked at the ineptitude with which events leading to the slap on the face administered by the Maldives by its annulling the $ 500 million contract to the Indian GMR company have been handled. Things have certainly changed from 1988, when the Maldives requested India for assistance in the face of a takeover by Sri Lankan Tamil mercenaries and India responded with a clinical military intervention within twelve hours. Were our spooks and diplomats sleeping over what was going on internally in the Maldives and the growing Male-Beijing nexus?

The implications of the growing Maldives-China relationship should have been evident when China set up a resident diplomatic mission in Male in March, 2012. Maldivian President Mohamed Waheed thereafter met Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Urumqi, on September 2. Just prior to the meeting, Waheed proclaimed that “unlike other influential countries,” China did not interfere in the internal affairs of small countries. Agreements involving $ 500 million of Chinese assistance to the Maldives were inked at Urumqi.

Just prior to the Maldivian decision to terminate the GMR contract, Chinese Defence Minister Liang Guangli visited the Maldives. This was followed by a visit to Beijing by Mohammed Nazim the Maldives Minister for Defence, National Security and Transport. Mr. Nazim was the minister who dealt with the GMR airport modernisation and maintenance contract. Not only did Mr. Nazim meet his Chinese counterpart, but was also received by General Xu Qiliang, Vice Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, and a member of the Standing Committee of the new party Politburo.

India’s National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon was in Beijing around the same time as the Maldives Defence Minister. Before the visit of the NSA, reports appeared in the media that he would meet the incoming President Xi Jinping. This soon changed and “informed sources” were telling the press that he would meet Premier Designate Li Keqiang. What ultimately transpired was a meeting with his “lame duck” counterpart Dai Bingguo. The Chinese message was loud and clear. While the Defence Minister of the Maldives would be received by a high-ranking member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo, the Indian National Security Adviser had to be content with meeting his lame duck counterpart.