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IT IS time for Gen Pervez Musharraf's government to do some introspection of the policies it has so far set in motion vis-a-vis militant Jihadi groups. The policies, if anything, continue to demonstrate that the sway of the radical and militant groups in the country has become overwhelmingly ominous and that the military government is seemingly impotent to take them on to restore a semblance of the rule of law, which is essential for any economic turnaround it hopes to achieve.
Reflecting, at the advent of the New Year, on the direction Pakistan is embarked on in the new millennium most Pakistanis in the United States believe that the mushrooming of such groups not only threatens to undermine the integrity and security of Pakistan, it could possibly isolate the country completely from the international community.
By now it has become crystal clear that the United States believes without a shadow of doubt that Pakistan, which exploded the bomb following India's example, is more dangerous to a durable peace in the region than its adversary. It is convinced that Pakistan has given safe havens to a number of militant Islamist groups which threaten to wage Jihad against it, and that the nuclear weapons and its technology could well fall in the hands of extremist groups which can then blackmail the world. In fact, until last Sunday a US senator said so on American television that US believes that Pakistan could possibly transfer such technology to Iran.
As for Pakistan's support to the Taliban regime in Kabul, on which the UN will impose fresh sanctions within two weeks, the US officials have repeatedly said Islamabad holds sway over the number one client, the Taliban, and if it wants it can force the Taliban to deliver its number one fugitive, Osama bin Laden. Russia and India which have joined in the chorus against the Taliban, fearing that the Taliban could export the Jihadi warriors to their territories, are also going to take tough positions. Russia is worried about its Central Asian republics and India about the escalation of militant activities in Kashmir. The recent tit-for-tat terrorist explosions in India and Pakistan have amply demonstrated that things can get out of hand.
In the aftermath of the Kargil affair India has been able to convince the United States that the insurgency in Kashmir is not altogether an indigenous movement and it could get out of hand and start another war in the subcontinent. As the Clinton administration leaves office, it is making sure that the policies that it has set in motion would continue and that there would be no reversal of US positions on issues relating to South Asia.
Many Pakistanis, including some top diplomats here, are elated and believe that the new Bush administration would re-evaluate the Clinton administration's stance towards Pakistan and may go soft on imposing new sanctions against the country. But if history is any barometer for things to come, it will not happen. The US foreign policy, whether right or wrong, has been consistent and inveterate. Consider the fact that after George Bush left the White House in January 1992, the new Clinton administration ordered strikes against Iraq for violating the terms of ceasefire of the war it lost in 1991, which was a singular achievement of the Bush administration. The Iraqis may have thought that things would change but it did not happen. The Iraq policy set in motion by the Bush administration remained in tact. Other policies set in motion by the Bush administration remained in effect, there was no palpable change.
Some diplomats here are boasting of contacts within the new Bush administration without realizing that their friends at the level they are could deliver little. Policy changes cannot be made with contacts alone. Remember, it was George Bush Sr who in 1990 imposed sanctions against Pakistan after determining that its nuclear programme was capable of making the bombs, which kicked in the law enacted by the Congress. The infamous Pressler amendment was also enacted by the Reagan administration in 1985. One can go on to reinforce the point that it is unwise to expect any tilt in favour of Pakistan by the new Bush regime.
Economic sanctions on Pakistan basically remain in force. Even the loan packages offered by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and other international lending institutions are tied to Pakistan's efforts to curb the perceived militants and their threat to the region and the Western economic interests. It is no secret that one of the main reasons inhibiting foreign investment in Pakistan is the concern of the investors over the law and order situation in Pakistan.
No amount of laws enacted to safeguard
their investments can protect them from the attacks of militant groups
who will perceive them as enemies of Islam. Then there is the biggest concern
of the West: return to the civilian rule in Pakistan.
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