General Pervez Musharraf has mastered the art of public speaking. The talent cultivated as a Brigadier at the Royal College of Defence Studies in London in 1990 has been perfected on the job. The hallmark of his frequent addresses to the nation is the carte blanche attribution of policy decision to national interest. Whether it is dumping the Taliban or elevating himself as President, even extending his tenure as Army Chief, supreme national interest is invoked in their justification.
His 12 January speech has been described by American interlocutors as "historic," "ground breaking", "absolutely fundamental", and "wholly honourable and positive". It has been called the Mother of all Speeches - to be followed by the Mother of All Implementation. The Musharraf speech has been dissected and put under the microscope by many. A part of his formulation-that dealing with Kashmir and terrorism-was reportedly made in the US, presumably by the State Department. But in this speech there was one striking difference. Unlike his post 9/11 addresses to the nation, no one from the US had held a gun to his head. At that time Musharraf was given a simple choice: whether he was with the US on terrorism or he was against it. Deftly he joined the US, saying he was doing so to preserve the nation's strategic assets-read nuclear weapons-and the Kashmir cause. After 13/12-that is the attack on Indian Parliament-he was forced to dissociate Pakistan from Jihad and sponsoring terrorism. Musharraf has done two U turns in less than four months.
It can be told now-that Secretary of state, Gen Colin Powell was on the phone to Musharraf several times before the historic Saturday January 12 speech. Till late on Friday, the State Department kept asking, in vain, for a copy of the speech that Musharraf recorded on Saturday morning and broadcast later that day. Powell was not provided an advanced copy though he was pleasantly surprised by the more than expected positive articulation on domestic reforms for rolling back jihad and religious extremism. The US claimed credit for this success, attributing it to the soldier-to-soldier telephone talk between Musharraf and Powell.
The war in Afghanistan has spilled over into Afghanistan and would no doubt, transit in future into J&K. It is a contingency that cannot be ruled out even after the Musharraf speech denouncing terrorism and promising to rein in the jihadis. It is estimated that some 13,000 US personnel are currently on Pakistani soil, operating on four Pakistan air bases. It is believed Pakistan has presented a bill amounting to $ 483 million towards costs for services rendered till December 31.
The Indian Army has done an internal assessment on Musharraf's speech. It is highly sceptical of Musharraf delivering on his words, though it is keeping its fingers crossed. It says it was Operations Sangram and Parakram-Mobilisation and Deployment of the military-that forced Musharraf to verbally concede India's demand on cross border terrorism. The Army reckons that coercive diplomacy has worked because it is backed by military force including the test-firing of the nuclear capable Agni I variant that gives the second strike capability greater credibility, survivability and deployment flexibility that the shorter range Prithvi lacked.
The Army has made de-escalation contingent upon the stoppage of infiltration. Operational statistics for the month of January pertaining to J&K are not likely to help in making even a preliminary assessment. In the month of January, till January 24, 122 terrorists were killed. The Army took 22 casualties. This is the highest kill ratio in recent times in any one month. Of the terrorists killed in January, 54 were killed in the last week against the death of one soldier.
Army sources say there were two infiltration attempts, before the January 12 speech. No other attempt has been reported after that. The low level of contact and infiltration is due to severe winter and the passes being closed in the higher reaches. Morale is low among Tanzeems.
Military Operations Directorate sources say there is routine firing on the LoC-but only small arms and mortars and generally no artillery firing. Some intercepts indicate the Mujahideen have been asked to lie low for the next four months. There have also been no IED or fidayeen (suicide) attacks in J&K after the one earlier this month against the 68 Brigade in which both fidayeen were killed.
Sources say there are roughly 50-51 infiltration routes. Pakistan has been providing the guides and artillery fire to help people come into India.
The Army estimates it will take at least another four months to determine whether infiltration has stopped. This means monitoring infiltration for a few months after the weather improves and the passes are open. That period -from about July to September-will be the litmus test of whether the promises made by General Musharraf will really be kept.
India has linked reduction in cross-border terrorism to reducing its forces on the border. An accurate assessment of infiltration will be available only after September. Therefore, the Army believes it will have to stay in its present level of alert on the border for the next six months at the very least though some reductions could take place earlier. The Army is confident that a bankrupt Pakistan cannot sustain the cost of deployment for very long-certainly not as long as India can. The shoe has begun to pinch Pakistan, which has called for de-escalation and dialogue.
Two other operational matters, needlessly hyped by the media, have escalated tension. First, the Army Chief, General S Padmanabhan (Paddy)'s masterly rendition of the threat of the use of force, including the nuclear scenario during a media briefing on the eve of Army Day. Unfortunately, several embassies in Delhi misread the nuclear riposte which was in total unison with the country's nuclear doctrine and what Defence Minister George Fernandes had himself said on an Indian second strike a week earlier. A jittery PMO, egged on by the embassies, and a ripple in the stock markets, lost its cool and got Fernandes to issue an avoidable clarification even though it was done in consultation with the Army Chief. Paddy is the only gainer from this encounter. His fan mail has quadrupled.
The Lt Gen Kepi Vij case is entirely the result of creative journalism that hit the front pages. The correct version of the story was that Vij voluntarily sought to be relieved from the command of 2 Corps, for 'personal' (read 'health') reasons. The Army Chief visited 2 Corps in its concentration areas where the Army Commander was also present when Vij formally requested for a transfer. As his successor has been earmarked, the Chief accepted the proposal in the best interest of the services. US satellites, American pressure and the threatening movement of tanks had nothing to do with this changeover.
The tanks did move-but only after Vij's transfer order. And that too, within the authorised space. Sadly the MoD rejoinder took a little time coming, and newspapers, which had put Vij's summary removal on the front pages, tucked away the rebuttal in the inside pages. According to news stories that appeared, Vij had moved his tanks to within striking distance of the international border without authorisation from his Army commander, with whom he was allegedly having a problem. The US alerted Indian authorities about the intentions of the 'renegade' commander, insinuating he was about to start a war. This resulted in his sack. All one can say is: This is all fiction.
The above account resembles the
quasi-fictional novel Dragonfire written by Humphrey Hawksley. His war
is also initiated by a renegade commander hijacking a military aircraft
to Tibet. The India-Pakistan war starts only after the Indian Home Minister's
aircraft is brought down by a Stinger missile fired by a Pakistan-trained
mujahideen. Operation Parakram is not about fighting a war-it is about
winning it without fighting one.