The United States and Britain have not only exposed India to a vastly increased incidence of terrorism but have also bought serious trouble for themselves by allowing Pakistan to airlift thousands of Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda activists from Kunduz.
Whatever the actual number of those evacuated-whether 3,500 to 5,000 as reported by western media or, as knowledgeable sources say, much more-they will now be turned against India and the current dispensation in Afghanistan. They have already set up a new outfit, Shoora-e-Furqan or Assembly of Believers, to wage jihad or holy war in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). While the state may not immediately witness an increase in the incidence of terrorist violence because the passes in the high ranges through which infiltration occurs are now snowbound, an escalation, much sharper than one witnessed annually, will occur once winter is over. There will also be serious trouble in Afghanistan where the present interim government, headed by Mr Hamid Karzai, has a tough time ahead in rebuilding a war-devastated country while meeting the restless aspirations of its people and maintaining a delicate balance among the various tribes and ethnic groups ranged behind it. Apart from heaping fresh miseries on the Afghans who seem to be just emerging from a prolonged nightmare, fresh violence will present an agonising choice before the US and Britain. They can either stand by and let events take their own course and thereby perhaps witness the slow undoing of whatever they have so far achieved in Afghanistan or get further involved in the war there with consequences which can hardly be predicted now.
Nor can the US and Britain ignore
the very serious threats they themselves face now. The Taliban and Al Qaeda,
which are pathologically anti-West, which they believe represents the very
anti-thesis of their obscurantist, savage and medieval worldview, have
even greater reason to hate both countries after the reverses they have
suffered at their hands in the recent war. They will now be eager for revenge
and both US and Britain should brace up for a possible rash of terrorist
attacks. Clearly, they seem to have once again been taken for a ride by
Pakistan. While they are destined to suffer the consequences of their own
mistake, India must gear up to meet the enhanced threat it faces. For one
thing, it must maintain its present level of mobilisation along the international
border and the Line of Control (LoC) to prevent the massive increase in
attempted infiltration by members of Pakistan-sponsored fundamentalist
Islamic terrorist militias that is set to follow. There can absolutely
be no question of any de-escalation without tangible evidence that Islamabad
has given up its proxy war through cross-border terrorism. Simultaneously,
the Centre, in cooperation with the state governments, must launch a nation-wide
drive against the terrorist modules that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI) has set up throughout the country. Finally, it must not only step
up vigilance along its borders with Nepal and Bangaldesh but also tell
the latter's government that it cannot take its friendly ties with India
for granted if it continues to allow the ISI to operate unhindered on its
soil. It is time for some plain speaking with Dhaka.