Introduction: 'The Kashmir policy had not been framed by wild-eyed jihadis, but by Pakistan army generals who share the same ethos as Musharraf
Kashmir and Afghanistan have long formed the two most important pillars of Pakistan's national security agenda. General Pervez Musharraf has fiddled with one of them - the Afghan policy - and, forced by the course of international events, looks set to turn the other one - the Kashmir policy - on its head. Now, the question on everyone's minds is whether Musharraf can politically and militarily afford, and more importantly, survive, to redefine the Kashmir policy that has been at the heart of the country's problems with India?
General Musharraf's globally hailed speech on January 12, banning five jihadi outfits and announcing new rules for mosques and madaris (religious seminaries), was combined with a ferocious crackdown that has so far landed almost 2,000 religious zealots in jail and seen scores of their offices sealed. But it has also raised a number of questions on the domestic front. According to the English daily Dawn, there are many in Pakistan who would like some answers from Musharraf. Who was he referring to when he said "those who set up the Afghan Defence Council (ADC) did not do any service to Pakistan and Islam, rather they got hundreds of innocent Pakistanis killed by sending them to take part in the so-called jihad in Afghanistan"? Who had actually created organisations like the banned Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Toiba, Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Jaffria Pakistan, Tanzim-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi? Who had encouraged the setting up of madaris, which he said were involved in encouraging hatred, violence and terrorism? Who had encouraged 'religious extremists' to defy the writ of the government and why? And who had actually allowed foreign Muslim extremists to use Pakistan as the hub of their activities?
These questions are the subject of the debate that Musharraf's strongly worded speech has triggered off in Pakistan. But much of the concerns revolve around three critical issues: How will the new policy impact the cause of Kashmir? Will the government be able to contain thousands of religious zealots, parties and seminaries? How long will General Musharraf remain unchallenged for having dared to meddle with "national security interests"?
For analysts like M.A. Niazi, writing in the daily Nation, "Pakistan's Kashmir policy has been reversed." A policy which, he says, had not been framed by wild-eyed jihadis, but by Pakistan army generals who share the same training and ethos as Musharraf.
Niazi fears that "withdrawing the jihadi organisations means withdrawing the substantial material support, training facilities, and even the possibility of sanctuary for Kashmiri freedom fighters." In future, he says, they will no longer have any reason to be grateful to Pakistan for whatever they achieve and will lack any motive to dovetail their own struggle with Pakistan's own national interest.
These views represent the concerns of a lobby that has, in the past, enjoyed a good rapport with the army and the religio-political right. Former ISI supremo General Hameed Gul also believes in the same political ideology "Pakistan's national security interests have already been defined, and nobody dare touch them," Gul had once told this scribe. For him, these interests were permanent and however popular any civilian government, the strength of the vote "does not empower them to play around with these national interests."
Gul is known to be the driving spirit behind the paralysed and discredited ADC, which had been formed almost a year ago at Akora Khattak to oppose the anti-Taliban UN sanctions of January 19. He thinks that the majority of Pakistanis are "liberal elements who want Musharraf to use the army to crush the Islamists - the way it happened in Algiers and Egypt." But, he cautions, Pakistan army will not fire at Islamists.
Another analyst, Farrukh Khan Pitafi, describes the new policy announcements as an attempt by Musharraf to give himself and his forces a 'Kemalist' face, following in the footsteps of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of the Turkish Republic, who introduced a broad range of sweeping and swift reforms. "Our armed forces cannot retain the difficult and alien profile of Kemalist secularism for long. If they have to revive the profile and prestige that they once enjoyed, they need desperately to return to their own identity If these major concerns are addressed in time and with due consideration, no force, Insha Allah, will rob us of our freedom and just interests," says Pitafi.
But these apprehensions essentially stem from the assumption that since almost all Pakistanis are born Muslims, they ought to return to their roots - the kind of Islam that the government has decided to shun.
Prof. Khurseed Ahmed, vice president of the Jamaat-e-Islami, voiced his own reservations. "The General has tried to wriggle out of his responsibility by not mentioning the role of some state institutions in the creation of the jihadi mindset. He also glossed over the fact that the failure of the state in providing education to all made way for the madarsa culture, but now it is not wise to interfere in the affairs of the madaris, nobody will accept it," he says.
Like other detractors, Prof. Ahmed also believes in the doomsday scenario being painted by some for Musharraf after his anti-madaris and anti-jihadi manouevres. But the president, whom his uniformed as well as civilian cabinet colleagues describe as "the most democratic general Pakistan ever had", remains unruffled by the criticism. Because the applause both at home and abroad - his measures have received so far simply drowns out the cries of denouncement. According to a recent secret survey, conducted apparently by a network of American FBI agents, some 65 per cent of Pakistanis rated Musharraf as "sincere and honest."
However, skewed and questionable this figure may appear, the witty General is not short of well-wishers, even though he had toppled a democratically elected Nawaz Sharif in October 1999. Dr Mubashir Hasan, a founding member of the Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP), is all praise for the man. "The President has gone a long way in outlining the steps to combat terrorism, religious extremism, sectarianism, and anger prevalent in the polity of Pakistan," he says.
Equally emphatic, for example, were the six US senators who preceded Colin Powell in Islamabad while on a regional tour. "I felt it was one of the most powerful, one of the most meaningful and perhaps one of the most consequential speeches we have heard from leaders in this region in a long, long time," said Tom Daschle, the leader of the delegation told reporters after their meeting with Musharraf on January 11. Almost overnight, Musharraf was transformed from "the villain of Kargil" to "a liberal statesman", who, according to Tom Platt of South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, "should be declared the man of the year."
General Rashid Qureshi, the chief spokesman for the President believes that these ratings suggest that both world leaders and intellectuals believe in Musharraf's sincerity. "There is no connection between Pakistan's combating terrorism and what is happening inside India-held Kashmir," Qureshi said. He admitted that the September 11 events precipitated the implementation of a policy, which had begun to fall in place since early last year. But this does not amount to a change in the country's Kashmir policy "The moral, diplomatic and political support to the Kashmir cause will continue," Qureshi asserted to counter mounting suspicions that the issue might be put on the backburner.
He was also confident that General Musharraf would survive the aftermath, if any, of the recent changes against the jihadis. He also added that he didn't see even the slightest danger from within the army as well.
The fact that General Musharrf, besides enjoying international good-will wears several hats, also precludes the possibility of a backlash from within the army. Though not big enough, this lobby might continues to loom large, and force Musharraf to do a tightrope walk
Imran Khan, the chief of Tehreek-e-Insaaf,
had a word of advice for Musharraf. "President Musharraf has a difficult
balancing act to perform," said the ex-cricketer. "On one hand, he has
to assure the world that we are a peace-loving, moderate nation. On the
other, he ahs to ensure that our people do not completely lose faith in
themselves and get totally demoralized. He has to draw a line beyond which
we will not be pushed."