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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), along with its allies, is
inching towards the majority mark in the next Lok Sabha,
according to a nationawide opinion poll conducted by C-Voter for
The Pioneer.
The opinion poll, with a sample size of 20,421 respondents
scattered over 48 Lok Sabha seats in 17 States, was conducted in
the last week of December 1997. A back-up poll of 4,120
respondents was undertaken on January 2 and 3.
The main findings of the opinion poll are:
- The BJP and allies are likely to win 260 to 270 seats, helped
by a positive swing of 8 per cent.
- Congress and allies may have a tally of 130 to 140 seats with a
negative swing of 6 per cent.
- The United Front is likely to finish with 115 to 125 seats with
a negative swing of 9 per cent.
- The BJP leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee is the most favoured of the
prime ministerial candidates, scoring almost 50 per cent points
on the popularity chart.
- Ms Sonia Gandhi's campaign for the Congress may not have much
impact on the outcome. Nearly 60 per cent of the respondents
ruled out the possibility of the Congress reaping a rich
electoral harvest owing to the Sonia factor. However, a clearer
picture will emerge when Ms Gandhi hits the campaign trail.
Most of the seats to the BJP may accrue from the North and the
West zones where it is poised to sweep the polls.
The BJP and its allies seem to have finally broken the 30 per
cent-vote jinx - thanks to its alliance with the All India Anna
DMK (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu, the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa and the
Trinamul Congress in West Bengal. Though BJP's alliance with the
Trinamul Congress has not yet been formalised, voters have
started visualising them as pollpartners. The BJP allies are
likely to get the lion's share of 36 per cent of the total votes.
The C-Voter poll reveals that 77 per cent of the voters have made
up their mind on the party they would support, leaving 23 per
cent in the till confused category. This includes those who
are in no mood to cast their vote.
A hefty positive swing of about 14 per cent votes makes BJP the
frontrunner in the East zone comprising Bihar, West Bengal and
Orissa. The United Front is on the second slot. But the balance
may tilt further in favour of the saffron brigade once
campaigning begins.
A similar scenario obtains in the North where, barring Himachal
Pradesh where the Congress is well-entrench and some resistance
>from Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar
Pradesh, the entire Hindi belt may go wholehog for the BJP and
its allies.
In Punjab, the BJP-Akali combine is sitting pretty, except in
Jalandhar, where the Akalis have decided to back Mr I K Gujral,
putting the BJP in a fix.
In Haryana, the BJP-HVP combine faces a rough weather with Mr
Devi Lal and son Chautala joining hands with BSP chief Kansi Ram.
Still the resistance put up by them may not make much difference
to the final tally of seats. While in Delhi the BJP is set to
repeat its performance, in Himachal Pradesh the Congress has the
edge and Mr Sukh Ram may not prove too big a hurdle for it.
In the West zone, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has consolidated its
position in Maharashtra, making inroads in western Maharashtra.
Any strategic alliance between the SP and the Congress may
produce some very keen contests in the Mumbai region; there are
about six seats where the minority support to the SP may prove to
be decisive. ,
In Gujarat, there is already a surge for the saffron brigade.
And, if BJP president L K Advani contests from Gandhinagar, it
will boost the party's prospects. The Rashtriya Janata Party-
Congress alliance is off the mark and many stalwarts may bite the
dust, losing even their deposits.
In Rajasthan, the BJP is on a sticky wicket. But the prospects
for the Congress in the State appear even worse with no towering
personality in the party's ranks to enchash on the anger of the
people.
South India, reckoned a stronghold of the Congress and the United
Front, will this time around witness three-cornered contests in
many constituencies. Though the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) appears
well-placed in Andhra, the shift of votes from the Congress
towards the BJP-NTR (Laxmi Parvathi) alliance may throw up a
surprise or two.
While in Kerala its will be United Front versus the Congress, in
Karnataka the BJP is waiting for Lok Shakti chief Ramakrishna
Hegde to join hands. If he does. the combine may well have a
bearing on the outcome.
Tamil Nadu is set to witness for the first time three-cornered
contests. Though the DMK-TMC alliance appears to be comfortably
placed, given the 'Super-sensitive" attitude of the voters in
this State big surprises may well be in store.
Stability and corruption are likely to be the cornerstone of
electoral issues with almost about three fourths of the
respondents sensitive to these issues in the poll. Much-drummed
"secularism" may fall by the wayside with a majority saying "no"
to the anti-secular tag associated with the BJP. Though still
about 44 per cent of the voters doubt the secular credentials of
the party, concern for stability may do the trick for it.
With the stability plank having slipped out of both the United
Front and the Congress hands in the' aftermath of the
developments leading to the dissolution of the eleventh Lok
Sabha, about half of the voters now accept tile BJP is a "viable"
alternative.
On the issue of corruption, too, the saffron brigade stands to
gain with respondents calling it the "least corrupt" of the
political parties. The party owes it to Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee,
its prime ministerial candidate. who has helped the public
perception of BJP being a clean image. In prime ministerial race,
he is far ahead of others, touching 50 per cent points on the
popularity chart. Mr Vajpayee's image seems to have been
bolstered by the live telecast of parliamentary proceedings
during the confidence motions brought in the eleventh Lok Sabha.
There is also "sympathy" for United Front leaders H D Deve Gowda
and I K Gujral. The Congress prodigies are at the rock-bottom in
terms of individual popularity.
To the million dollar question -- will Sonia Gandhi's entry
result in victory for the Congress? -- the answer at the moment
seems to be a big "no" with almost about 60 per cent of the
respondents ruling out any impact by her presence in the
electoral arena. Though one third of them are still hopeful for
the Congress, the final picture will emerge only after Ms Gandhi
starts campaigning for the party.
C-VOTER NATIONWIDE OPINION POLL
PROJECTIONS
BJP & Allies ******************** 260-270
Cong & Allies ************ 130-140
United Front ********* 115-125
Others *** 15-25
Sonia's entry into politics will lead to Congress victory
No ************ 59%
Yes ******** 35%
Can say ** 6%
BJP Government will be a threat to secularism
No ********** 50%
Yes ******** 44%
Can say ** 6%
Stability & corruption are the main issues of this poll
Yes **************** 73%
No ***** 21%
Can say ** 6%
Who is best suited to be the Prime Minister
A.B. Vajpayee ********** 48%
Sonia Gandhi ***** 24%
I.K. Gujral *** 14%
Others *** 14%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The performance of the United Front government in last one year was
(a) Okay 47
(b) Disappointing 34
(c) Good 18
Congress and United teamed up -----
(a) To save their corrupt leaders
Yes 62
No 31
Can say 07
(b) Only to grab power
Yes 57
No 35
Can say 08
(c) To uphold secularism
No 48
Yes 43
Can say 09
(d) To check BJP's growth
Yes 76
No 21
Can say 03
UF government was aborted by Congress for no reason:
Yes 63
No 32
Can say 05
BJP can give stable government
Yes 46
No 46
Can say 08
Which political party can give the least corrupt government:
(a) BJP 45
(b) Unite Front 21
(c) Congress 16
(d) Others 31
Have you made up your mind, whom you are going to vote in 1998 polls
Yes 77
No 23
If yes whom do you intend to support in the forthcoming polls
Combination India N S E W
BJP & Allies 36 40 24 33 45
INC & Allies 24 22 25 21 31
United Front 21 14 26 32 09
Others 19 24 25 14 15
Swing of votes
Combination India N S E W
BJP & Allies 8 3 7 14 3
INC & Allies -6 -1 -8 -9 -7
United Front -9 -1 -19 -11 1
Did you watch proceedings of parliament on television:
No 56
Yes 54
If yes which leader impress you most:
Atal Behari Vajpayee 48
Sushma Swaraj 10
H.D. Deve Gowda 09
I.K. Gujral 08
Ram Vilas Paswan 06
Rajesh Pilot 04
Somnath Chattergee 04
Sharad Pawar 03
Indrajit Gupta 03
Sharad Yadav 02
Priyaranjan D. Munshi 02
Jaswat Singh 01
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