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For the last fortnight, Sonia Gandhi is getting prominence on the
front pages of newspapers. Magazines have devoted cover stories
to her. Electronic media too is treating her as if she is already
the Prime Minister. Even on the occasion of the Republic day
speech of President K R Narayanan, Doordarshan gave the first
headline to her and also a lot of visibility. The President's
position hi the polity and the message were too important to be
relegated behind Sonia Gandhi. Security agencies are sending
additional planes to fetch the video tapes so that timely
transmission is facilitated. The establishment of the country has
always been Congress-minded. At the shining of the first ray of
hope for the Congress, it jumped to project her like Indira
Gandhi m every way. Those who look superficially may conclude
that Congress is very much revitalised.
Just a month back, what was the state of affairs in the Congress?
In West Bengal its most popular leader Mamata Banerjee split the
party and formed Trinamul Congress. In Bihar Dr Jagannath Mishra
and Ram Lakhan Singh Yadav managed a vertical division of the
party and formed a regional outfit. There were desertions of
important Congress leaders from Madhya Pradesh. In UP, Congress
broke up a little earlier. Even afterwards, a number of former
ministers deserted the party. The same was the state of in
Maharashtra. After the departure of S Bangarappa, Congress never
looked up in Karnataka. It amounted to parting of ways of six
per cent of crucial votes. In Tamil Nadu there is a cipher in the
name of Congress. Andhra is the only state where the mood of the
Congress was buoyant despite a number of important leaders
quitting the party.
Just within a fortnight Congress is looking up. Has anything
radically changed? It is true that Sonia is attracting crowds.
She had a mystery woven around her by keeping silent and making
herself aloof. During the Rao regime it was made a regular
practice by some sycophants in MEA to manage a meeting of foreign
dignitaries with her. By and by she was treated like Rajmata by
Congressmen. Media too followed her like the British queen. Being
white-skinned and an Italian-born woman, she has additional
points of attraction. Accompaniment by youthful Priyanka
magnifies the charm of the podium. All put together, there is
naturally a tremendous surge of curiosity. If people get curious
about anything, they try to see it from as close a quarter as
possible, resulting in a scramble. The mass psychology takes care
of everything. When spice girls of Europe arrived a few months
back, the youth stampeded. Even today if Madhuri and Manisha
appear on political platform, they would be crowd-pullers. But
people would not vote for them.
Sonia has been treated with sympathy and admiration by Indian
people. But now that she has jumped into competitive politics,
things would be different. Political parties, specially the BJP,
have not been very critical of her even after one fortnight of
her campaign. In fact, leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo
Prasad Yadav have even welcomed her decision. Left leaders
pretended to be light and indifferent towards her, but they were
happy, for her campaign, they thought, would stop the unstoppable
BJP.
Only Andhra CM Chandrababu Naidu has pointed out that what the
Congress is doing is mortgaging India's self-respect by begging
at an Italian lady's door. Barring Arun Shourie and a few others,
most of the bitter critics of the dynasty have not come out with
their views as yet.
I have not seen many critical pieces like that of columnist
Tavleen Singh. She wrote in India Today dated February 2, 1998:
"Is it just me or are there a few of you who are ashamed as I am
at the thought of India having an Italian Prime Minister? Nine
hundred million people, a civilisation as old as time, a country
the size of a continent. Yet we appear so utterly bankrupt
politically, intellectually and in our sense of identity as a
nation that we turn to someone who has only been an Indian
citizen for 13 years as our 'saviour' ". The issue of Outlook
dated February 2 has Sonia on its cover. I am sure the picture
depicted on it would give sleepless nights to image-managers of
Sonia Gandhi and also to herself.
Sonia's campaign should be of the biggest concern for BJP, which
is fighting to get the majority, along with its allies. But
Vajpayee and Advani did not lose their cool. When asked, Advani
replied to newsmen that Sonia's campaign would have three
consequences. One, it would boost the moral of disheartened
Congressmen. Two, desertions from Congress may stop and among
those who deserted, some may revert back. Three, Congress would
at least have semblance of election campaign which hitherto was
not possible with Kesri as the main campaigner. But Advani added
that her campaign would not have m change in the electoral
outcome.
The ground realities of electoral battle have not been affected
even marginally by Sonia's campaign. Take, for example, the case
of UP and Bihar which elects 139 LS members. Muslims are not
going to revert back to the Congress from Mulayam Singh and Laloo
Prasad in these states. Similarly, Dalits would stick to BSP In
UP and to the extremist outfits m Bihar. No amount of Sonia's
campaign can change the scenario. Further, Congress is either the
fourth or fifth power in these states. The smaller leaps would
not change the outcome. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress cannot hope
to win even one seat. In Kerala, Congress may increase its tally
by two or three, not because of Sonia, but because of the fact
that whenever the Leftists rule the state, they lose a few
percentage of votes. In Karnataka, there is a BJP-Lok Shakti wave
despite Sonia's campaign.
In Gujarat, there is a definite pro-BJP wave. Because of the
split of Congress, the party is definitely going to lose a few
seats in West Bengal, Sonia or no Sonia. The similar is the case
in Orissa. Regret over Operation Bluestar has no impact in
Punjab. In J&K, Himachal, Chandigarh and Delhi, the ground
realities have not at all been affected by her campaign. In
Haryana, BJP and its allies may suffer a setback, but it would
not be because of her campaign. Rajasthan has such caste
equations that generally give marginal edge to either the BJP or
Congress. A month back, Maharashtra Congress was fearing that it
may not get even five seats. Congress has its base in the state
and with Sonia's campaign it may at best retain its present
strength. Similar is the case In Madhya Pradesh.
Why is Sonia's campaign not going to be successful? She does not
have a message. Why should people vote for the thoroughly
discredited Congress? If she fights the corrupt herds of
Congress, she can succeed. But she cannot have real appeal among
voters making the same corrupt herds victorious.
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