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The Bharatiya Janata Party is on a comeback trail particularly in
north India. Sure evidence of this trend is the results of the
recent by-elections held in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar
Pradesh, and Orissa. Apart from this, the landslide victory of the
Akali Dal -BJP combine in Punjab and the BJP's showing in the
municipal elections in Delhi and Maharashtra have given a boost to
the demoralized leadership of the party.
After the fall of the A B Vajpayee government at the Centre, the
party had been virtually written off by political observers. The
leadership too had adopted a low profile, preferring to lick its
wounds in private. But the soul-searching done at the party
conclaves at Jaipur and Bombay have obviously borne fruit.
The results of the elections to the Municipal Corporation of Delhi
were a major setback for the Congress; the party was banking on the
anti-establishment feeling against the BJP government in Delhi to
bring it back to Power.
Surprisingly, in spite of being in power in Delhi for more than two
and a half years, the BJP's vote has not declined; rather, it has
gone up by 2 per cent. Of the 133 seats in the MCD, the BJP won 79.
Given this voting pattern, if we were to extrapolate this result to
the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP would have won six of the seven
seats in Delhi.
Today, the sway over virtually the entire northern part of the
country. It is in power in Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Delhi.
Moreover, consider this:
In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is the single largest party with 186
members in the House. In the recent by-elections, it won two more
seats in the state and its share of the vote is again touching 33
per cent.
In Rajasthan, the BJP won the Nagaur seat for the first time. The
political significance of this victory is immense since it
indicates that, for the first time, the Jats have started accepting
the BJP. Even Nathu Ram Mirdha's son has joined the party, thanks
to Bhairon Singh Shekhawat.
That Kamal Nath lost the election in Chhindwara, the strongest
Congress citadel in Madhya Pradesh, is indication of its waning
popularity in the state. Again extrapolating from this result, if
the Congress has lost to the BJP here by 40,000 votes, it means, in
terms of the voting percentage, the BJP is all set to sweep any
election (Parliament or assembly) in the state. It's the
infighting, within the Congress that has marred the chances of the
party, in spite of the good governance of the Digvijay Singh
government.
In Maharashtra too, the BJP has done much better than it expected
in the recent municipal elections in Bombay and other cities in the
state (see story on page 3).
In Bihar, the BJP-Samata Party combination has become the only
alternative to Laloo Prasad Yadav and they are extracting the
maximum political advantage from the fodder seam. If the BJP is
able to manage the support of either the Koeri community or a
section of the Dalits, they may well get a majority of the seats in
the state in the next election.
In Orissa, the BJP is emerging as an alternative to the ruling
Congress as the Janata Dal is losing its base and credibility
rapidly, mainly because of the battle between Biju Patnaik and
Srikant Jena. Though the Congress is still strong in the state, the
organizational superiority of the BJP is evident. In recent
byelections, the BJP was number two while the Dal was a poor third
in most of the constituencies.
In Gujarat, the political equations have suddenly changed in favour
of the BJP. During Shankersinh Waghela's agitation against the
Keshubhai Patel and Suresh Mehta governments, the BJP was the most
hated party in the state. But, in the last six months, the
situation has changed. Today, the BJP seems to be regaining
popularity, while the Congress is getting sidelined. If this trend
continues, the next election will probably be a fight between
Waghela and the BJP, with the Congress nowhere in the picture.
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