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Since conventional wisdom has heralded the era of coalition
politics in India, it is difficult to fault either the BJP or the
BSP for carrying that process to its logical conclusion in Uttar
Pradesh. Charges of opportunism and unprincipled conduct may have a
certain validity when viewed through the prism of ideological
purity, but they are meaningless in the context of post-election
coalition-budding. In any case, last year's fractured mandate
ruled out all possibilities of any single party or alliance
commanding a majority in the Assembly. The choice before the
political parties was stark: persist with President's rule or
eschew purity for expediency. Six months of stalemate later, the
BJP and BSP have settled for the latter. For this belated meeting
of minds they must, of course, thank Governor Romesh Bhandari who
made deal-based politics look far more attractive than Mulayam
Singh Yadav's proxy rule.
That the revolving door principle on which the BJP-BSP alliance has
been cemented is inherently fragile hardly needs reiteration. With
Kanshi Ram publicly distancing himself from guarantees and the BJP
admitting that the arrangement will be reviewed in a year's time,
it is quite clear that the main actors in Wednesday's drama are not
inclined to look to the long-term. The BSP will be keen to use
Mayawati's six-month tenure as Chief Minister to plant its
supporters in key bureaucratic positions, while the BJP will use
its position of authority to chip away at the United Front
Government at the Centre. Both parties know that another election
in UP is unavoidable. The present exercise is an endeavour to
position themselves favourably for that eventuality and, if
possible, link the Assembly election to a general election where
the BJP thinks it is in with a chance.
The underlying cynicism which shaped the restoration of popular
government in UP rules out any hopes of the new regime putting the
state on a new course. All that the electorate can realistically
hope from the new Chief Minister is a series of steps to prevent a
further slide into "chaos, anarchy and destruction". BJP president
L. K. Advani has rightly stated that the restoration of law and
order is this Government's priority. What he should have added is
that law and order is the Government's only agenda. If there are
other meaningful steps for UP's overall development - including the
establishment of a separate Uttarakhand state the electorate should
count it as a bonus. Like the UF Government at the Centre which
was formed on the hope that it would pursue a line of minimum
damage, the BJP-BSP coalition will assume office also bereft of
popular expectations. Not that performance in government will
affect the showing of the parties the next time round. What really
counts in UP is the ability of politicians to bolster primordial
loyalties and await electoral dividends. Wholesome governance
counts for very little. Unless this political culture undergoes a
transformation, UP is destined to retain its status as India's most
impossible province, second only to Bihar.
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