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The recent drama of Uttar Pradesh was a bit like the battle of
Alamein.
It was, as Churchill remarked, "....... not the end. It wasn't
even the beginning of the end. But it was, perhaps, the end of the
beginning." Nine months ago the United Front swept in on an
anti-BJP plank. Today, with BJP ministers in Uttar Pradesh Punjab
too the rhetoric of June 1996 rings a bit hollow.
But there was a long way between Montgomery's victory at Alamein
and the end of World War II. And some of the fiercest battles are
still to come. The summer of 1997, I predict, shall be no less
dramatic than that of 1996.
Three presidents, no less, await judgement with varying degrees of
apprehension or anticipation. Their fates could well be decided
one way or the other in the months of April and May.
Nor shall the histrionics of the summer end there. There will be
much to-ing and fro-ing before the new occupant of the Rashtrapati
Bhawan is chosen. Much of June will pass in electing India's new
President.
The first of the three presidents is L K Advani. Over a year ago
the Central Bureau of Investigation charged him in the hawala case.
His response was unique.
The standard line for almost every other politician is to appeal to
the "people's court". Our lords and masters apparently have no
faith in the established judiciary
This is where L K Advani differ from his fellows. He announced his
intention to contest no popular election until he was freed of the
charges by the courts precisely the opposite of what others did in
similar circumstances. By sticking to principle, Mr Advani was
staking his career in Parliament. Given his stature, the verdict
of the Delhi High Court which is reserved is of some import.
I mentioned politicians who prudently throw themselves on the mercy
of a (hopefully-gullible electorate, not an experienced judge.
(Though the voters, as Kamal Nath found, aren't always as naive as
they seem.) One such is Janata Dal chief Laloo Prasad Yadav, the
second of the three presidents.
His hired mobs have left Patna. And the chief minister of Bihar is
left to ruminate over the fate of Kalpanath Rai, whose victory in
the "people's court" of the Lok Sabha election didn't impress a
stern judge. Why should Yadav's rally or "railla"! have any
greater effect?
With the self-serving rhetoric sets aside, the wily chief minister
has some hard questions to answer. Specifically, was he involved
in the Fodder Scam, and if so to what extent?
At this point it is worth recalling how and why Laloo Prasad Yadav
rose to head the Janata Dal. Up to a year ago it was Karnataka's S
R Bommai who held the post. But Bommai was allegedly mentioned in
the famous Jain diary.
This led to Bommai's ouster. Laloo Prasad Yadav succeeded, by
virtue of being the most powerful of the regional barons. ( Once
this was done, the other Janata Dal leaders recovered from their
bout of morality. Bommai joined the Union Cabinet, and the party's
working president, Sharad Yadav, is also named in the hawala scam.)
The party presidency was supposed to be Laloo Prasad Yadav's
stepping-stone to higher and better things. But in a country with
a pantheon of thirty-three core, some god was evidently keeping an
eye on the nation's interests.
Was it the same deity who arranged for Yadav's comeuppance in the
form of the CBI probe. into the Fodder Seam?
(This may explain why the Bihar chief minister has developed a
sudden interest in arranging havans by the dozen!)
At any rate, the chief minister of Bihar will have his work cut out
for him simply staying in place, leave lone advancing to Delhi. I
hear the betting is that the CBI may, finally, descend upon Yadav
in force in April.
If he can come through April unscathed, Laloo Prasad Yadav may live
to fight another day. That is a pretty big 'if', of course, but it
is too soon to count out the Janata Dal president.
The last of the three presidents I mentioned is that of the third
ma or national party Congress boss Sitaram Kesri. In May he will be
facing judges far more severe than those in any courtroom or
voters' roll -. his own partymen. Kesri, technically speaking, is
an interim president. And in the palmy days of the past he would
have had all the time in the world to convert that to permanent
status. But fate, in the form of the Election Commission, is set
to deny him that luxury.
Democracy is a virtue which the Congress prefers to preach to
others. Internal elections were last organised in 1992. The EC
thinks that far too long a period. It has threatened to cut off
the Congress's status as a national party unless polls are held on
or before May 31, 19971 The Congress has already asked for, and
received, three extensions. But the Election Commission has
announced that there won't be anymore.
Which means that Sitaram Kesri must fight real election for the
first time in 25 years. He doesn't look forward to it, and who can
blame him?
Kesri was supposed to reverse the anti-Congress trend of the Rao
years. Punjab, the Lok Sabha by-elections in Chhindwara and
Nagaur, and rumblings in the Uttar Pradesh unit suggest he has been
less than successful.
The BJP. The Janata Dal. The Congress. The presidency of each is
a post of power and prestige. But they are, arguably, essentially
internal matters of those parties. That is definitely not true of
the fourth post that of President of India.
In an age of mixed electoral verdict, that office has acquired a
new stature. Can you imagine the chaos, for instance, if Romesh
Bhandari, not Shankar Dayal Sharma, was in the Rashtrapati Bhawan
in May and June 1996?
President Sharma's successor is sure to face challenges of his own.
So who is it going to be? Nobody knows. Nobody has the strength
to choose a President on its own, not even combination of the
United Front and the Congress. Which means anything can happen.
President Sharma may continue for another term. Or Vice-President
K R Narayanan could have his day if aggrieved North Indian MPs and
MLAs (i.e. Janata Dal!) permit both the Presidency and the prime
ministership to go to South Indians.
Though Narayanan is the favourite, I have heard of a dark horse
candidate lately Mr Speaker, Sangma.
Sangma is the best Speaker in a long time. (A very long time!)
Almost unknown before being raised to the chair, he won fans across
India after the rival, televised motions of confidence.
Could it boil down to a contest between the man who chairs the
Rajya Sabha and his Lok Sabha counterpart? Well, either way we get
a good President. (Pity to lose Sangma so soon, though.)
But June is some way off. And long before the new President takes
office, three other presidents will be facing judgement. It is
going to be a long summer.
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