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The crucial meeting of the national council of BJP,
scheduled to take place on 5th and 6th April in
Triruvanathapuram, is likely to formulate a strategy to
further strengthen its base in southern states,
particularly Karnataka and Andhra.
Apart from this, the party will also be deciding to bring
maximum number of regional forces into alliance with it
in order to widen the base throughout the country. It
will also throw light over the recent alliance with BSP
and would emphasise on having a nation-wide alliance with
BSP in spite of Kanshi Ram's recent remark. It seems
that L K Advani will get third term too, but for one year
only.
The mood of the BJP leadership appears to be quite upbeat
as the party is on a comeback trail in entire North India
and western part of the country. The byelection results
in Madya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Orissa
have given an eye opening picture.
Apart from this, the landslide victory of Akali-BJP
combine in Punjab and the outcome of MCD elections in
Delhi and Maharashtra have given a major boost to the
demoralised leadership of the party since the formation
of H D Deve Gowda government at the centre after Vajpayee
could not prove the majority on the floor of the house.
The MCD elections in Delhi were a major setback for the
Congress as it was hoping to get majority in municipal
corporations on the basis of anti-establishment feeling
against the BJP-led state government. Surprisingly, in
spite of being in power in Delhi for more than two and
half years, BJP could safeguard its voter-base. Its votes
have rather gone up by 2 per cent in the national
capital.
As far as rebel candidates are concerned they were
causing the problems for both the parties. This
contradicts the face-saving argument of the Congress
leaders that they only lost because of the rebel
candidates.
Voting pattern clearly indicates that if the Lok Sabha
elections take place in near future ]3JP will get 6 out
of 7 seats of Delhi. Today the entire North India seems
to be in the grip of BJP. They are already in power in
Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh. In
UP assembly, BJP is the single largest party with 186
members.
In the recent byelections also, they won two more seats
in the state and their vote percentage is again touching
the figure of 33 per cent. In Rajasthan, B" has won
Nagore seat. It is significant that for the first time
Jats have started accepting BJP and Nathu Ram Mirdha's
son has joined the party - thanks to Bhairon Singh
Shekawat.
It is not much important that Kamal Nath has lost the
election. The most important factor is the defeat of the
Congress in Chindwara which was the strongest Congress
citadel in entire Madhya Pradesh. If Congress has lost
in Chindwara by 40,000 votes, it means as per vote
Percentage, BJP is all set to sweep any election in the
state.
Otherwise also, the infighting within the Congress has
marred the chances of the party in spite of good
governance of Digvijay Government.
Reports are showing clear indications that the influence
of BJP in Bihar, Orissa and Gujarat is on the rise. In
Bihar, the BJP-Samata combine has become the only
alternative to Laloo Vadav and they are taking the
maximum political advantage of fodder seam.
If BJP is able to manage the support of either Kori
community or a section of dalits, it may get majority in
the state. Congress is the biggest loser as it is not
able to play the role of opposition party.
In Orissa, B.JP is emerging as an alternative to the
ruling Congress as Janata Dal is rapidly losing its base
as well as credibility. The battle between Biju Patnaik
and Srikant Jena is enough to finish JD in the state.
Though Congress is still strong in the state, but the
entire benefit of anti-establishment votes will go to BJP
because of their organisational structure. In recent
byelections, BJP was number two while JD was poor third
in most of the constituencies.
In Gujarat also, equations with regard to BJP have
suddenly changed. During Vaghela's agitation against
Keshubhai and Suresh Mehta government, ~ was the most
hated party in the state, but during the last six months
of Vaghela government situation has become topsy-turvy.
Today BJP seems to he again a vote-catching party and
eating up the base of Congress.
Being a supporting party to Vaghela government, Congress
is the biggest loser. If the fight between Mehta
government and Vaghela would have continued till today.
Congress Would have been the biggest gainer.
In fact,,next election will be between BJP and Vaghela's
party.
BJP's organisation in Karnataka has also expanded almost
in 16 parliamentary constituencies and, it seems that the
way Deve Gowda has lost in his own constituency, the next
elections will be between Congress and BJP and Hegde
group in most constituencies.
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