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The BJP's claim that the minorities have begun ethinking' is
correct, but that they have also started gravitating towards the
party on the eve of the polls is inaccurate. On February 7, a
meeting of Muslim intellectuals in Delhi was held under the
auspices of Minorities Forum, to discuss the current political
situation. Participants from all over UP condemned the BJP. In
itself, this appears to be insignificant and rather predictable.
However, they also declared that they would work to consolidate
the Muslim vote and ensure tactical voting against the BJP and
its allies.
The strategy is simple in every identified constituency, the
secular candidate most likely to defeat the BJP is selected.
Committees of opinion leaders then mobilise Muslims and other
voters to vote en bloc in favour of that candidate. The Forum
leaders claim that in this way, they can deprive the BJP of at
least 20 seats in UP alone. The response they have evoked in the
areas covered by them like Amroha, Aligarh, Barabanki, Meerut
etc, supports this claim.
Simple Strategy
Regardless of the eventual outcome, this action in itself is
significant on several counts. It strikes at the very crux of the
problem facing the Muslim electorate - its disorganised and
arbitrary nature. One of the important reasons for constituencies
repeatedly returning BJP candidates despite having significant
Muslim populations is the "splitting" of their votes amongst the
non-BJP parties. For instance, out of 20 constituencies in UP
where Muslims comprise more than 20 per cent of the electorate,
17 have returned BJP candidates both in the 1991 and 1996 Lok
Sabha elections. Interestingly, the margin of victory (difference
between winner and runner up) in ten of these constituencies did
not exceed 11 per cent. In all these constituencies, the Muslim
vote was divided between the BJP's closest rival and a third
Muslim candidate. This lack of coherence and cohesiveness in
voting gives the BJP the cutting edge, particularly in eastern
UP, when the Muslim vote is significant but impotent.
In this context, other parties also manipulate the Muslim 'vote
bank' by cashing in on their insecurities. The new strategy aims
to change this. By organising their scattered electoral strength
and throwing it behind a chosen candidate, the community leaders
are sending out certain important signals to all parties. That
they recognise their strategic importance and are no longer
willing to squander it.
Thus the Muslim intelligentsia now claims to be capable of
mobilising the community in a self determined direction. What's
more, the movement has been towards progressive and liberal
values, not separatist or reactionary as is alleged. They resent
the projection of orthodox mullah elements and their retrograde
views as the legitimate voice of the community, and demand a
hearing. Simultaneously, they refuse to distance themselves from
their cultural and religious identities to prove their secular
credentials and progressiveness.
This unapologetic self-awareness, coupled with a fierce
commitment to secularism speaks volumes for the new found
confidence of the intelligentsia and is the propelling force
behind the movement for change. Consider the attempt to break
with the practice of voting for Muslim candidates, which they
hold responsible for dividing the Muslim vote to the benefit of
the BJP. By consciously preferring to support secular
candidates, regardless of their religion, over the Muslim
identity, they are transferring voters' affiliations from ties of
community to considerations of secularism and unity.
Exaggerated Claim
The movement is indicative of a larger, immensely significant
phenomenon - that there is tremendous enthusiasm at the
grassroots level to defeat the sectarian forces; that the BJP's
propaganda of oderation' has not fooled the Muslims. The claims
that Muslims are turning to the BJP due to disillusionment with
the "secular parties and backstabbing by the Congress are
grossly exaggerated.
Arguably, the BJP "one nation, one culture, one people" ideology
does have a strong appeal among certain influential sections of
minorities in the army and administration. This process of
ideological takeover can only acquire strength and legitimacy if
the BJP form a government at the Centre. In the immediate
electoral context, however, the first priority of the community
is to halt the BJP's advance.
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