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It remains to be seen whether Mr Sitaram Kesri's dramatic gambit -
described by his fellow partyman Mr Sharad Pawar as a "bolt from
the blue" - will prove to be a calculated gamble or a desperate
wager. On the face of it, the decision seems inexplicable. Logic
dictated that whatever its compulsions, the Congress would desist
from this precipitous step if only to avoid the possibility of
fresh elections which it was far from equipped to face; indeed,
theoretically at least the risks involved in withdrawing support
appeared greater than those that came with continuing support. But
evidently, Mr Sitararn Kesri and his supporters thought through the
consequences of the move they were contemplating and came to the
opposite conclusion - that they stood to lose rather than gain from
a partnership which did nothing for the image of the Congress. For
one, the party had practically no say in decision-making in the
Gowda government, which was leading to unrest in its ranks.
Secondly, for all its dependence on the Congress, it wasn't even as
if the United Front was going out of its way to help its ally,
which fact was proved by the ever growing number of cases and
investigations against Congressmen. The immediate provocation for
the move appears to be the BJP's recent runaway success, both on
the electoral front and in the matter of winning crucial political
allies. If the BJP's victory in Punjab and in the municipal
elections in Maharashtra and Delhi pointed to its undiminished
ground support, the elan with which it pulled off a virtual coup in
Lucknow, where it had formed a government with the BSP, established
it as a shrewd political entity, capable of deftly upstaging its
rivals even as they quarrelled among themselves.
>From the point of view of Congressmen, then, it can be argued that
it made little sense to prop up a coalition which seemed unable and
unwilling to arrest the onward march of a rival whose
marginalisation was ostensibly the raison d'tre of its existence.
However, the Congress might find that it has miscalculated. Not
only is there no guarantee that the numbers will work in its
favour, especially given. the current mood in the UF camp, but it
cannot also take a second invitation from President Shanker Dayal
Sharma for granted, having declined to form a government in June
last year. Which means, a second shot for the BJP rather than the
Congress. In any case, whether it is the Congress or the BJP or
another version of the UF which puts together an alternative
government, it will inevitably be a patchwork effort, likely to be
even more unstable on account of its having to depend on allies
with shifting loyalties. Unfortunately, all this has happened just
when the country seemed poised to turn the corner on the economic
front, what with Mr P Chidambaram's budget being acclaimed
universally for being farsighted and for being able to show the
world India had what it takes. The stock market which had begun to
show a healthy upward trend in response to the budget has taken a
nosedive and foreign investors are reportedly reassessing India's
viability as a reliable destination. The political crisis is also
bound to reflect on the follow-up to the Indo-Pak talks, which had
begun on an upbeat note, particularly regarding mutual trade and
commerce. On the domestic front, the fresh bout of uncertainty can
only add to the disenchantment of an electorate which has already
just about had it with those who apparently have yet to tune
themselves to the nationally felt need for firmly putting the
economic horse before the political cart and not vice versa.
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