The Delhi High Court judgement quashing the charges framed by the
trial court against Bharatiya Janata Party President Lal Krishna
Advani in the Jain hawala case comes as a morale booster for the
party, especially given the political uncertainties in which its
rivals are embroiled. Though the United Front and the Congress are
now holding formal talks to find a way out of the impasse created
by the latter's decision to withdraw support to the government, the
continuing volatility of the situation is clearly to the advantage
of the BJP. The verdict, which is as much a personal victory for Mr
Advani as it is for the party, is then, an additional gain. If Mr
Advani can now emerge from his self-imposed exile to contest
elections, the party, too, can benefit from having its credibility
restored. Already, there is a dramatic upswing in the BJP mood and
indeed, at the party's recent national executive meeting, the
feeling was widespread that the party's hour had come. The
differences were only on strategies of how best to seize the
moment, should the Congress and the UF continue to remain
estranged. While Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee favoured another attempt
at forming a government with members from the present Lok Sabha, Mr
Advani was firm that the party should benefit from a mid-term poll.
Now that Mr Advani has been cleared of the hawala charges, his
position, that the BJP was poised to emerge as the front-runner to
form the government after an election, is certain to find greater
favour within the party. More so since the judgement offers the
party enormous campaign mileage not only to make corruption as a
key issue but also to impress on voters that the real purpose of
the hawala case was to nail Mr Advani.
This turn in the BJP's fortunes, brought about as much by the
shortcomings of its rivals as by its own calculated moves, should
more than offset the loss inflicted by Gujarat chief minister
Shankersinh Vaghela in an assembly by-election. Within the party
Mr Advani's ascendance is assured, while the BJP's allies will now
have additional reason to stick with it. The Siromani Akali Dal,
which had offered to extend support to the UF, is rethinking its
strategy and the BSP too may tailor its options to the BJP's new
assertiveness. The fact that the BJP has proved to be flexible
enough to find coalition partners in Maharashtra, Haryana, Punjab
and now in Uttar Pradesh, may enhance its appeal to other smaller
groups which remained unmoved when Mr Vajpayee's shortlived
government sought their support. Given the BJP's long-term
objective to keep its lines open to the regional parties, it is
certain to target the Congress, rather than the UF. That the
Congress is alert to this possibility can be seen from the party's
moves in the aftermath of the court verdict. In agreeing for
formal talks it has considerably climbed down from its earlier
hardline stance. While the greater vulnerability of the Congress
has revived fresh hopes of a compromise between Mr Sitaram Kesri
and the UF, the threat to the latter is no less than it was 11 days
ago. This should act as a spur for the UF and Congress to patch
up.