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Despite the thumping margin of his victory in the Radhanpur Assembly
byelection, the Gujarat Chief Minister, Mr Shankersinh Vaghela may find
that he is rejoicing rather too soon. As an old war horse himself, he
cannot be oblivious to the fact that it is seldom that incumbent chief
ministers lose in byelections. Their triumph is all the more assured if
they choose as their constituency a farflung and backward area which is
generally deprived of benign political patronage. Past experience shows
that the electorate in such constituencies wholeheartedly back those in
power. They find it difficult to resist the temptation of 'having a
readily available Chief Minister as their representative in the hope
that he will bring them prosperity. Radhanpur has been no exception. the
reports during electioneering have clearly suggested that Mr Vaghela,
indeed, touched a chord when he promised, among other things, water to
the electorate of his parched and salinity-infested constituency, a most
backward area in Gujarat.
More often than not the electorate's hopes in such cases are belied.
And, in the case of Mr Vaghela, too, it will not be surprising if he
does not rind time to live up to his poll promises. Actually, he may
discover soon to his utter dismay that more than the demands of his job
he will have to work hard for his survival in office. His problems may
have t begun on the political spectrum. Admittedly, he may manage to
secure a few more defections to his Rashtriya Janata Party in the wake
of his victory. But, the slowly unfolding political drama in Gujarat
indicates that his euphoria will most certainly be short-lived. Having
propped up Mr Vaghela with its "unconditional" support in the State
Assembly, the Congress is bound to rind less use of him now. The
Congress has achieved its intended objective of causing a virtually
irreversible split between him and his parent organisation, the BJP.
Congress leaders cannot be unaware that they can allow Mr Vaghela to
continue in office for the remaining next three years of the present
State Assembly only at their party's peril, given his proven skill for
mustering defections.
Any hope, therefore, that Mr Vaghela's victory will restore political
stability in Gujarat is rather misplaced. Instead, his position is
likely to become increasingly vulnerable with the Congress determined to
extract its pound of flesh. While the BJP may have got a drubbing at
Radhanpur, its support-base does not appear to have eroded much and the
party is certain to redouble its efforts to dislodge the Vaghela regime.
At the same time, it would be churlish to deny Mr Vaghela credit for
having demonstrated yet again that he is a much better strategist than
those State leaders of the BJP with whom he had a running battle which
eventually climaxed into his exit from the party. But, as he and those
who have cast their lot with him are certain to realise in the long run,
personal ambition can never be a substitute for organisational support.
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