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There is then the second scenario of the BJP becoming more and more
unstoppable. The fall of the Gowda government is believed to have
taken the party one more step closer to power at the Centre. If the
Congress has been taken to task for what many considered its
untimely and unprovoked withdrawal of support to the Gowda
government, the BJP has emerged as a clear winner. The
Telegraph-MODE survey confirms this. Vajpayee has emerged as the
most preferred choice as the next Prime Minister; even in Calcutta,
he runs just one per cent short of Jyoti Basu in the race.
The BJP's phenomenal growth is generally attributed to the decline
and fall of the other major national party, the Congress. From two
members in the Lok Sabha in 1984 to 162 in the current House, it is
modern India's most dramatic political story. But the climax is
yet to come. Till that kingdom comes, the party will take to other
means. From its alliance with the Shiv Sena, a pro-Hindu outfit, to
coalition governments with the Akali Dal and the Haryana Vikas
Party, the BJP too has covered great ideological distances and
discovered the virtues of alliances and coalition politics. "But
in a coalition there has to be a commonality of ideology," says BJP
MP Sushma Swaraj, pointing to the Left Front in West Bengal and the
Sena-BJP government in Maharashtra.
Parties like the Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal realise that Congress
fortunes being on the slide, the BJP is a better bet for power
alliances. UF leaders however argue that the BJP's postures over
alliances are deceptive. "Despite its protestations, the party is
not committed to the principle of federalism, " says Surendra Mohan
, "the BJP sees it only as a strategy to be in power."
Even BJP leaders would not disagree, not at least in public. In an
interview to The Telegraph last month, Vajpayee admitted as much -
that the party would like to be in power at the Centre on its own
strength. But the party's alliances of the present are aimed at
making investments for the future. In the party's assessment, the
Shiv Sena can only be a dwindling flock after Bal Thackeray is out
of the scene. The Bahujan Samaj Party will be reduced to a lesser
force without Mayawati and Kanshi Ram. Sooner than later, the
party will take over much of the space now occupied by these
parties. Add to these, the new areas of influence the saffron
brigade is carving out for itself in states where the Congress is a
declining force. In Orissa, it is emerging as the Congress's main
rival. It's happening in Karnataka as well. "We are the only
party with a clear political agenda and programme and the future
lies with us, " says party vice-president Vishnukant Shastri.
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