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Let me pick up the thread after Deve Gowda's last speech in the Lok
Sabha. He lost the confidence vote motion but won hearts. It was
an inspiring performance, every word coming from his heart and
reducing Congress, which had withdrawn support from his government,
to shreds. He should have gone down with laurels, as his farewell
words, suggested: "I am going out but I shall return one day. So is
the destiny."
But he changed his mind. He fell in love with his own performance.
His speech in English, televised, could not have reached more than
six to seven percentage of Indians. The English knowing people are
below 10 per cent. But he felt differently. The intelligence
agencies also helped him change the mind because they reported a
landslide support for him. The same agencies had let down Mrs.
Indira Gandhi, who was supposed to win after the emergency in 1977
but lost her own seat.
Janata government
At the very first meeting of the United Front's Steering Committee,
held the following morning, it was clear that Deve Gowda was not
willing to step down to make way for some other person in the
Front. This reminds me of the last days of the fanatic government
(1977-79). Morarji Desai, then prime minister, refused to resign
from the party's leadership even after giving up the prime
ministership, while losing the majority in the Lok Sabha.
Jagjivan Ram, behind whom the Janata MPs stood, staked the claim.
But what could Sanjiva Reddy, then president, do when Desai was
still the leader of the Janata parliamentary party? No amount of
pressure or persuasion softened Desai. The party went down along
with him. Mrs. Indira Gandhi returned to power with a vengeance,
although two and half years earlier, she had been roundly defeated
following the imposition of the emergency (1975-77).
Most constituents of the 14-party United Front did not react
favourably to Deve Gowda's attitude. They had stood behind him like
a rock. They expected him to make room for another leader. They
had resisted prizes and pressures by both Congress and the
Bharatiya Janata Party. They were promised ministerships and
positions of governors and ambassadors. But they did not flinch
from their loyalty to him.
It should have been, however, clear to Deve Gowda that their solid
support did not mean that he should expose them to the dangers of a
mid-term poll, which did not in any way help the United Front
parties individually or collectively. They warned him that the
climate was such that the BJP would reap the maximum harvest. Its
alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Akalis in Punjab and the
Samata in Bihar and Bansi Lal in Haryana could be formidable at
this juncture.
The states like Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh, where the
Congress governments are in the saddle, are also the states where
the BJP will be its direct contestant. With the battered image
that Congress has after the debate at the Lok Sabha, it is
well-nigh impossible for the party to return. Orissa, another state
where Congress is in power, may also go the other side or at least
most of the way. With the near eclipse of Biju Patnaik, once a
legend in Orissa the BJP has made inroads. The territory vacated by
the Janata Dal is being occupied by the BJP. The 15 Janata Dal
MLAs, who have appealed to their party to join the BJP, are an
advance guard. Some former JD ministers have already joined the
BJP. Against this background, a mid-term poll was seen most
inopportune. Congress was panicky.
Stable alternative
The UF constituents were justifiably worried. They realised that
they would have to go to a mid-term polls sooner than later. But
they did not want to face it at a time when in comparison to the
BJP, they looked less cohesive and less acceptable. They wanted
some period to elapse between now and the time of polls so that the
impression the BJP has spread of providing a stable alternative
would lessen. They believed as the days went by, the BJP-BSP, a
deadly combination for the north, would begin to loosen. It has
already developed cracked, which they expected to widen in the next
four to six months.
The communists, who have the Front by collar, could have made Deve
Gowda step down. He was dependent on them. But their dilemma was
moral-commissars behaving like a yogi - how to tell him to resign
when they themselves were instrumental in installing him as the
prime minister. They admitted that the break up of the Front meant
the role of the BJP at New Delhi. But they were reluctant to
broach the subject of leadership with Deve Gowda. They preferred
the events to take their own course.
By this time Congress was flat on the ground. Deve Gowda's speech
had given the party a deadly blow. The various groups of Congress
approached Harkishen Singh Surjeet, the CPI-M secretary general, to
help them retrieve the ground. Congress president Sitaram Kesri,
who had met Surjeet even before the confidence vote motion, sought
his help to find a way out and save the party from a mid-term poll.
Yet the communists' problem was how to bring Deve Gowda down to
earth because after the speech he had convinced himself that it
would sweep the polls if he were to go back to the nation.
True, sticking to Deve Gowda was understandable. The United Front
parties had also done so to counter the Congress challenge. There
where on chinks in the armour until the voting on the confidence
motion. What the communists faded to realise was that once the
crisis was averted, regional parties had their own perception.
They did not think that they had to jump into the pyre with Deve
Gowda. They wanted to choose the timing of mid-term poll
themselves, and not play into the hands of the BJP Andhra Pradesh
chief minister Naidu said that his Telugu Desam did not want to
commit hara kari.
DMK chief
This was the time when the BJP, which was resigned to a mid-term
poll, began to smell power. A hint of differences within the Front
was what they were waiting for. The party swung into action. It
sought the good offices of Punjab chief minister Prakash Singh
Badal. He met DMK chief Karunanidhi. He-gave him to understand that
he did not want a mid-term poll. If such a situation was forced on
him, he would have to reconsider his support to the Front.
The communists were the first to realise the prospect of the
Front's break up if they would persist with Deve Gowda. Congress
had categorically stated that they would not accept him in any
eventuality. Still things would have perhaps drifted if BJP leader
Atal Behari Vajpayee had not announced the formation of National
Democratic Front. Regional parties, which had come together to
stall the BJP and its communal politics, could now think of an
alternative, a Front where the BJP would be one of the
constituents. For the first time, the BJP looked like changing its
image.
This only confirmed the communists' fear. Now their stand was: the
United Front with Deve Gowda if possible, without him if necessary.
Once the communists began to face the reality, Deve Gowda too
resiled from his earlier- position. He offered to step down if the
Front could find another acceptable person. He had the assurance
that he would stay as the leader of the Front but for government
purposes, someone else would be pressed into service. Deve Gowda
was a reluctant supporter.
Deve Gowda would have gone down better in the country if he had
asked the Front to elect another leader after losing the confidence
vote motion. He stuck onto power and position. This nearly
jeopardised the future of the Front. He had to be told in clear
terms that the Front would break up if he were to insist to stay
on. He is far from reconciled to a position where he is not the
leader.
Events seem to take shape in a manner which suggests another United
Front-type government. In other words, the different, believing in
the country's ethos defend the polity. It is heartening to see that
the BJP has also realised that only a federal structure can make
the centre strong. Were it to shed its anti-Muslim bias, the BJP
would be more acceptable to the country than many other political
parties.
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