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Author: Dr. Subhash Kapila
Publication: South Asia Analysis Group
Date: May 25, 2006
URL: http://www.saag.org/papers19/paper1810.html
Introductory Observations
Peace dialogue between India and Pakistan cannot take place in a vacuum. A peace dialogue necessarily has to be governed by demonstrated actions, events and public utterances of political leaders of both India and Pakistan . Further, a peace dialogue can only be sustained by a two way mutual trust which can only emerge from sincere, genuine and transparently honest motives and a will to move towards an enduring peace.
In light of the above, what is the picture obtainable after two years of an India-Pakistan peace dialogue? The picture is dismal and the following developments cast serious doubts about the sincerity of Pakistan's Military Government's intentions:
* Pakistan-sponsored terrorism continues unabated
in Jammu and Kashmir.
* Pakistan - controlled Islamic Jihadi terrorist organizations involved in
ethnic genocide and ethnic cleansing of Hindus from the Doda region.
* Pakistan's ISI using the Taliban in Afghanistan to indulge in killings of
Indians employed in re-construction projects in Afghanistan.
* Pakistan's ISI active in different parts of India to generate indigenous
Indian Muslim terrorist organizations for Islamic Jihad within India.
Every right-thinking Indian has a right to ask as to how Pakistan is so emboldened to continue indulging in an unrestrained and undeclared war against India and the present Indian Government rather than defending "India's National Honour" chooses to continue to chase the chimera of an Indo-Pak peace dialogue.
It also needs to be recorded that in the present security environment in South Asia where the strategic compulsions for peace rest more heavily with Pakistan, how is it that Pakistan has reversed the roles and India is left in the pitiable position of a "lump it" situation of being expected to sustain the Indo-Pak peace dialogue when it has all the winning cards, strategically, in its hands.
India today presents a dichotomy where Indians at large feel that in view of Pakistan's proxy war India should adopt strong postures against Pakistan and freeze Indo-Pak peace dialogue. In contrast, the Government is trying to placate Pakistan's military dictator.
The answers to this enigma lie buried and can be dug out only from the following maze:
* Indian Political Leaders Pitiable Responses
to Pakistan-Sponsored Violent Massacres of Hindus in Jammu and Kashmir and
Terrorism elsewhere.
* Is India's present Government under United States Pressure on Pakistan?
* Pakistan's Military Ruler Tweaks the United States to Pressurise India.
* Pakistan's Perfidious Three-Pronged Strategy in Jammu and Kashmir.
* Peace with Pakistan : Is it a Strategic Imperative for India ?
* Pakistan's Presently De-stabilised; Inopportune Moment for Continuance of
Peace Dialogue.
This author feels that the conclusion from a discussion of the above would clearly and unequivocally dictate that India should freeze the peace dialogue with Pakistan immediately.
Indian Political Leaders Pitiable Responses to Pakistan- Sponsored Violent Massacres of Hindus in Jammu & Kashmir and Terrorism Elsewhere
Indian political leaders responses to Pakistan-sponsored massacres of Hindus in Jammu and Kashmir and terrorism elsewhere in India in the last two years have been pitiable. The Prime Minister downwards to the Defence Minister and Home Minister condemn the incidents, and then hasten to add the refrain that: "This will not disrupt or affect the peace dialogue".
Such statements in the face of Pakistan - sponsored violent onslaughts betray an insensitivity of these political leaders to "India's National Honour" and their constitutional pledge to defend India's external and internal integrity.
What message do these statements convey to Pakistan's military rulers? A very simple one that Indian political leaders are weak, timid and incapable of strong responses?
What message do these statements convey to the Indian Public? That their political leaders and security advisers are indecisive in face of external threats.
Surely, India at large would not continue to endlessly suffer these faulty prognostications of Indian political leaders on an India-Pak peace dialogue.
Is India's Present Government Under United States Pressure on Pakistan ?
The Congress Party, to this day, claims the honour of having dismembered Pakistan in 1971 under Indira Gandhi's leadership, despite strong opposition and pressure from the United States .
Thirty-five years down the line, when India has emerged more militarily and economically powerful today, it is a sorry sight to witness India under the same party -turning the proverbial cheek to Pakistan's proxy war. Why is it so?
Is it that because when it comes to Pakistan, India's approaches and formulations are not being determined by India 's own national security interests but by the global strategic focus of the United States. Is the present Government under extreme pressure for succumbing to it from Siachen to Sir Creek and also restraining it from breaking off the India-Pak peace dialogue?
Is the Indian Government is under extreme American pressure to give strategic concessions to General Musharaf to ensure his longevity in power to suit United States interests?
This author has been forewarning the Indian audience on this count in the following SAAG papers earlier:
http://www.saag.org/papers17/paper1662.html
http://www.saag.org/papers16/paper1542.html
http://www.saag.org/papers12/paper1175.html
Pakistan's Military Ruler Tweaks the United States to Pressurise India
The United States traditionally has had a soft corner strategically towards Pakistan. It continues to do so even today.
The notable thing today is that Pakistan's military ruler, General Musharraf, is able to tweak the United States to pressurize India to give him strategic concessions on Kashmir and Siachen.
The Pakistan General's blackmail of the United States arises from his confidence and the mistaken American belief that only General Musharraf can "deliver" in the US global war on terrorism against the Al Qaeda.
Relating the above to India, both the United States and Pakistan have to realize that no Indian Government is in a position to give any strategic or political concessions to Pakistan over Kashmir and Siachen.
The present Indian Government, if it is to indulge in soft rhetoric over the India-Pak peace dialogue, it has to be for tactical purposes only.
Pakistan's Perfidious Three-Prong Strategy in Jammu & Kashmir
The United States and many of the Pak-apologists in India would like to argue and maintain that Pakistan has already displayed its sincere intentions towards the peace process by maintaining the cease-fire along the Line of Control (LOC) in Jammu and Kashmir .
While the holding of the cease-fire along the LOC is true, what is not true is the sincerity of the Pakistan Army and its General. Pakistan 's compulsions for a cease-fire along the LOC arose from its inability to bear the heavy financial costs of daily artillery duels and shelling and the speedy replenishment of ammunition so spent.
If Pakistan was comprehensively sincere then
this would have embraced the entire spectrum of conflict in the region. What
India should take note of is the following Pakistani pattern visible:
* LOC Cease-fire is being maintained with twin purpose of conserving war reserves
of ammunition and impressing the United States of its peaceful intentions.
* Kashmir Valley Unabated terrorism by Pakistan's controlled terrorist organizations
is continuously maintained to draw International attention and keep Indian
Security Forces under attrition.
* Jammu & Ladakh Region
- Genocide and ethnic cleansing of Hindus from Jammu areas contiguous to the Valley to bring about demographic regions.
- Generating communal disturbance in Kargil etc. between Muslims and Buddhists.
Surely, the Indian Government and its intelligence agencies could not be blind to the above perfidious designs?
Peace with Pakistan : Is it a Strategic Imperative for India?
Peace with Pakistan as a strategic imperative for India is only a strategic pressure point imposition of the United States and the West to suit their own strategic needs.
And adversarial and military-adventurist Pakistan, even after launching four wars against India, has been unable to arrest India's economic and military rise. On the contrary, it is Pakistan which has ended up as a "failed state". Without American military and economic "Life-support System" it will fade away. The United States CIA has itself estimated its longevity to 2020 or so.
While the United States gets mortified by the prospect of Pakistan ending as a "failed state", India need not. We have lived with that prospect for the last six decades.
India's current security environment does not suggest, in any remotest strategic connotation, that strategic imperatives exist which dictate that India should appease Pakistan or give it strategic concessions.
The present Indian Government, therefore, has no logical or persuasive reasons to advance for continuance of the peace dialogue with Pakistan .
On the contrary, during the period when there were no peace dialogues with Pakistan, South Asia was a quieter place.
Pakistan Presently De-Stabilised: Inopportune Moment for Continuance of Peace Dialogue
* Pakistan is presently de-stablised as would
be evident from the following developments:
* Pakistani Western frontiers today are explosive in Balochistan and NWFP..
* Armed independence war under-way in Balochistan .
* Sunni-Shia sectarian killings all over Pakistan .
* Talibanisation of Waziristan .
* Unrest against General Musharraf and the Pakistan Army.
* Stirrings for a political mass-movement for restoring democracy in Pakistan
.
Against such a disturbing situation in Pakistan, it would be politically unwise for the present Indian Government to continue the on-going peace dialogue with Pakistan for the following reasons:
* India is having a dialogue with a military
ruler of Pakistan who came into power by over-throwing a duly elected parliamentary
government.
* The Pakistani public is restive for a political change.
* Pakistan may fragment if Pakistan Army rule persists.
* India would be legitimizing military rule in Pakistan by holding peace dialogue
with a military Government.
It is a big wonder as to how the Indian liberal glitterati and media, with their penchant of democracy, continue to advocate a dialogue with Pakistan against the dismal picture above prevailing there.
Should the peace dialogue be frozen till Pakistan stabilises?
Concluding Observations:
General Musharraf is an improbable partner for a peace dialogue with India. A self pro-claimed Pakistan patriot, who could not keep his pledge to the Pakistani nation to return democracy, soon in his address in October 1999, is being trusted by the present Indian Government to be a dialogue partner for peace.
Commenting as far back as January 2004, the learned American authority on South Asian affairs, Prof. Stephen Cohen said:
"General Musharraf is harder to figure out. He lacks strategic vision, is a bad listener and believes that ruling Pakistan is like running an army garrison"
The trouble is that General Musharraf feels that the entire South Asia, India included, is his army garrison. Is it not high time that the Indian Government makes him wake up to see the dawning strategic realities, by freezing the India-Pakistan peace dialogue.
And what is the dawning strategic reality for Pakistan? Prof Cohen said.
" They (the Pakistan Establishment) know Pakistan is failing and a military race with expanding India is a losing proposition and that Pakistan's friends are fair weather"
Why is the Indian Government then persisting in a futile and doomed-to-failure, India-Pakistan peace dialogue. India 's heart beat is: freeze the peace dialogue until Pakistan stabilizes and displays a demonstrable record of living upto its pledges.
(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)
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