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Not since Jawaharlal Nehru has India had a prime minister who comes to office with
as definite worldview as Mr I.K. Gujral. Many domestic issues will consume his
time, not least juggling the various political components of his party. But none
doubt the new prime minister will make time to pursue the foreign policy
initiatives he launched when he was steering the ministry of external affairs.
Few doubt this is one portfolio Mr Gujral intends to keep.
There are two sides to what is sometimes called the Gujral doctrine. One is the
enhancement of India's dominance of south Asia through kindness rather than
bullying. Though the toughest bit remains, namely wooing Pakistan, regional policy
has blossomed under Gujral's care. The other is to counteract India's alienation
from the West on a number of international issues by building alternate circles of
influence like the Indian Ocean rim organization or copying up to south-east and
west Asia. Judgement on this policy must wait. India has been humiliated at major
international fora in recent times. There is reason to believe the Gujral doctrine
may not save India from further defeats.
Mr Gujral's regional policy derives from a simple recognition India can hold sway
in south Asia through persuasion not coercion. This is a well worn tactic of big
powers: Washington used it in east Asia, London in continental Europe. It
requires the larger partner to sacrifice petty interests. The Gujral doctrine's
embodies this. Agreements like Mahakali and Farakka were not wholly in India's
favour. But what New Delhi surrendered in small print was made up by gains in the
larger picture. Mr Gujral's gamble is to believe a similar policy will break the
ice with Pakistan. What has been accomplished so far is symbolic. Yet there is
reason for optimism: Pakistan's post-Cold War isolation, Mr Nawaz Sharif 's
political strength and pragmatism. But slips between Pakistani cup and Indian lip
have been plentiful in the past. Mr Gujral can make concessions, but he needs to
be sure Pakistan will reciprocate. Expectations should be based on more than
childhood memories of Lahore.
But roles are reversed in the global arena. Here India more often a supplicant
than a leader. In recent times India has shown itself to be isolated. Mr Gujral
seems to believe this is because of hostility that the West is unhappy with
India's stances. He is probably wrong. India's isolation lies in the irrelevance
of a lot of its diplomatic positions, particularly its inability to understand the
global agenda is set by being at the forefront of new economic issues like
intellectual property or trade in services. Like an old man facing new fashions,
India prefers to oppose these developments. But there are few countries which
share such outmoded views. The West has not hounded India. It has not needed to,
New Delhi has so few votes on its side. Rather it has treated India with affected
patience, as if dealing with an idiot savant.
The Gujral doctrine will soon have to swim in the deep end. The US, impatient at
India's dithering over patents, is set to cite India under the "super 301" clause.
India will have to cross swords on arms control again as the fissile material
cut-off treaty comes up for negotiation. This summer the West will square off
against India over its use of antiquated quantitative restrictions on imports. Mr
Gujral still expects to find white knights to gallop to India's rescue. His
efforts may mean more south Asian ayes. But look to the damage the scrapping of
the Tata-Singapore International Airlines has done to relations with south-east
Asia to know that in economics lie the ties that bind. The real test for Mr Gujral
will be whether the second oldest person to become prime minister and a
longstanding ideologue of the left, will come to realize that shaking hands with
Nepal is the easy part of the job. That diplomacy in the big league means a
country puts its money where its month is.
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