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During spring, a year ago, when silky cotton-grass wafted across the
countryside, Asom Gana Parishad supremo Prafulla Kumar Mahanta kicked up
enough dust in the towns and villages of the state, promising the people
that his party, if voted to power, would usher in a golden millennium in
Assam where there would be peace, prosperity and happiness.
His slogan routed the ruling Congress in the elections. The AGP won a
near absolute majority in the 126-member State Assembly, the party's
second electoral victory since its inception in 1985. Despite its
individual tally of 63, the AGP continued its coalition with four
partners, including the CPI and the CPM. On 15 May 1996, the government
of chief minister, Mr Mahanta, was sworn in.
A year later, the dust raised during the campaign has settled. But the
10 million voters who had exercised their franchise have found that
their mandate for peace and progress has remained a dream. Assam is
still caught in the bind of insurgency, ethnic turmoil and lack of
investment, resulting in a stagnant economy.
>From day-one, the Mahanta government was cornered by feuding tribal
groups, militants, a fractured bureaucracy and a shattered economy and
to top it all, an empty coffer. The rioting by Bodos and Jharkhandi
Santhals in the western district of Kokrajhar was at, its peak when
Mahanta was sworn in at Raj Bhawan on the morning of May 15. The
clashes went on to claim more than 200 lives, rendering 20,0000
homeless.
Less than 24 hours later, the outlawed Ulfa rebels chased and killed the
Tinsukia superintendent of police broad daylight. And the next day,
unidentified gunmen assassinated an important human rights activist and
journalist, Parag Kumar Das, in the heart of Guwahati. Terror prevailed
and the administration was on tenterhooks.
The events belied expectations that outfits like the Ulfa would give
some respite to the new government headed by a regional party which is
fighting for maximum autonomy to the state. The Ulfa might have carried
out the daring attack to demonstrate to the AGP leadership that its
strength remained undiminished.
However, the action put the new government in a tight spot for it only
proved true fears in trade and business circles that emergence of a
regional party at the helm of affairs could heighten terrorist violence.
The fear was found to be well-grounded with acts such as the killing of
the IPS officer. But this time round, the Mahanta government appeared
bent on containing terrorism with a firm hand and taking Assam to the
path of progress through economic development.
The stepped-up Ulfa violence in the winter of 1990, that, among other
things, led to the secret air evacuation of some top tea company
executives from Assam was fresh in the minds of the AGP leaders. More
so because the disturbed law and order situation had led to the
dismissal of their government in 1990. Mahanta would not allow a repeat
of 1990. Therefore, in January, Mahanta, along with majority of AGP
bigwigs, agreed to the union home ministry's proposal for introduction
of a unified command structure for the Army, police and paramilitary
forces in the state for a more effective and coordinated
counter-insurgency offensive with an optimum utilisation of manpower.
Predictably, the Mahanta government was in for trouble soon after.
Despite the crucial strategy committee of this three-tier structure
being headed by the state chief secretary, giving it a civilian face,
almost every organisation in the state, ranging from the Ulfa to the All
Assam Students' Union and the opposition Congress, were up in arms. The
AGP-led government was accused of encouraging an "Army Raj" in the
state.
Such opposition notwithstanding, the state government agreed to the
extension of the unified command structure for a second three-month term
from April 20. However, the government leaders have been compelled to
justify their action. Mahanta and his colleagues are getting bogged down
as opposition from its one-time supporters like the AASU is growing
against the unified command structure, particularly against the Army
heading the operational command. The AASU may have lost its earlier
sting but its actions must certainly be irritating to the AGP
leadership. On his part, Mahanta has made it clear that his government
would recommend the centre to withdraw the unified command structure the
moment the militants put a stop to violence and agree to accept New
Delhi's offer for unconditional talks. Now the ball is in the Ulfa
court.
He has also said that the militants are responsible for creating hurdles
in Assam's development process. The AGP leader has made it clear that
his government cannot fulfil the people's aspirations if groups like.
Ulfa continue to obstruct development activities in the state by not
contributing to a congenial atmosphere. And quite in advance, he has
said that the people at the grassroot level must intervene and reason it
out with the rebels to shun violence. They cannot simply blame his
government for having failed to deliver. As the battle of nerves between
the government and the insurgent groups carries on, development takes
backseat in Assam. A new industrial policy has been declared by the
state government but there are hardly any takers to the various
incentives and tax concessions. As Mahanta himself says: "Lot of
investors from India and abroad are keen on opening shop in Assam but
they shy away at the last moment when they hear about the violent
activities." The only major investment that is expected in coming months
is for the projects listed in the former prime minister H. D. Deve
Gowda's Rs 6,100 crore exclusive economic package for the Northeast.
But then, one is not sure whether the state agencies are ready to absorb
such an inflow of funds.
Another area where a breakthrough seems to be elusive is the Bodo issue.
The Bodo Accord of 1993 that had brought the curtains down to a violent
six-year-long Bodoland stir has become virtually defunct. The elections
to the 40-member Bodoland Autonomous Council, a product of the Accord,
is yet to be held as the boundary of the Council has not been demarcated
to the satisfaction of all groups even after four years.
The Congress had made a mess of the situation in the Bodo heartland but
the AGP has not yet been able to set it right. Further delay will only
permit rebel outfits like the NDFB or the Bodoland Liberation Tiger
Force to hijack the Bodos. The homeless refugees who had fled their
villages during the Bodo-Santhal riots are still living in
government-run relief camps. Until recently, the state government was
spending an amount of Rs 1.7 million every day on feeding them. The
AGP's pre-poll pledge to restore peace and prosperity in the state
stirred the people's imagination primarily because the Congress
government during the later part of its tenure was almost a mute witness
to the mayhem by insurgents in the state.
And now, the AGP is at the receiving end for having to depend on the
Army to maintain a semblance of order in Assam. A section in the AGP
may be sympathetic to the Ulfa but the outfit has not at all been soft
on the party government. During the year in office, Mahanta's
government has been able to make one thing clear: it will not allow the
insurgents to hold Assam to ransom.
This message has gone done well among the state's still jittery business
community. Another right decision of the AGP has been to join the
United Front government at the centre directly, ignoring criticism in
several quarters. The most important thing for the AGP-led government
is to tone up its resources and get part of the huge accumulated debt
with the centre written off. The party government is likely to succeed
in this matter. Whether a sound financial position is, able to propel
the regional party government to the centre stage of activity is yet to
be seen. At the moment, it is the insurgents who hold the key to Assam's
development, the Mahanta government's performance and survival.
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