M.D. Nalapat
Sunday Times of India
May 2, 1999.
Title: Timor deal may fragment Indonesia Author: M.D. Nalapat Publication: Sunday Times of India Date: May 2, 1999. The agreement to be signed next week by Indonesian President B.J. Habibie on East Timor may in the next few years lead to the fragmentation of Indonesia amid much blood- shed. Thus far, the country's 85 per cent Muslim population has been largely tolerant of religious minorities, because of the multi-ethnic, multi-faith nature of Indonesia. The country has 583 distinct ethnic groups in its 200 million population, as well as significant concentrations of Hindus, Christians and Buddhists. Independence for East Timor may result in similar demands being raised by other territories, notably Aceh, Irian Jaya and Bali. The East Timor agitation has long been fanned by the former colonial power, Portugal. It is a measure of the degeneration of the United Nations that this country is given equal status with Indonesia in discussing the fate and future East Timor. This is akin to the United Kingdom being asked to mediate on issues relating to India, a proposition endorsed solely by the U.K.- centric Clinton White House so far. By rolling back to the "rights" of the colonial era, the U.N. has created a dangerous new precedent under pressure from NATO. Not surprisingly, in the region only Australia is pushing hard (together with the NATO states) for an independent East Timor that in effect will be a NATO protectorate. Together with Diego Garcia, now under illegal U.K. occupation, such a neo-colony could serve as a base for NATO forces operating in the Indian Ocean. This would increase the capability of the European alliance to intervene in this sensitive part of Asia, decades after they withdrew from it thanks to decolonisation. By agreeing to the NATO diktat, President Habibe has revealed his undemocratic status. No elected head of government would have been permitted to com- promise national security in this manner. Interestingly, the nation's most popular leader, Megawati Sukarnoputri, is firmly against independence for East Timor. By encouraging a Christian-majority province to push for independence, the U.N. is putting at risk minorities elsewhere in Indonesia thanks to the upsurge of Muslim fanaticism that the Timor agitation has caused. Indonesia together with India - two countries with the largest Muslim populations in the world has been oasis of secular calm. Unless East Timor remains within Indonesia, that will be threatened. For the sake of naval and other bases, NATO is putting at risk a unique experiment in ethnic togetherness. Besides Christians, and possibly Hindus and Buddhists, many Muslims too are likely to attempt to break away from Jakarta once East Timor gets statehood. This is because the people of Indonesia are fractured into numerous groups, many with only a short history of living peacefully together. Already, riots have broken out between different groups in over a dozen of Indonesia's 27 provinces and territories. The ongoing economic turmoil will make these frictions worse. Sadly, New Delhi has thus far watched silently as a nominated head of a friendly government prepares to launch a process that could spell the doom of his state. India has an immense stake in Indonesia's continuance as a multi-religious society wedded to tolerance. Else the flames from the growing fanaticism in this once- proud nation may reach Indian shores, just as those from the Talibanised regimes to India's west have. If not publicly, then privately Indonesia needs to be warned against the catastrophe that will follow the breaking away of East Timor.
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