Editorial
The Statesman
May 28, 1999
Title: Kargil to war Author: Editorial Publication: The Statesman Date: May 28, 1999 Reflexive Western worries, and the downing of the two Indian jets by Pakistan notwithstanding, there's real hope that Kargil win not end in a war. That the two Prime Ministers are - still talking-is one reason. That a war will cripple both economies, and especially Pakistan's, is another. A third is that what has happened in Kargil over the last fortnight is very much a part of the Kashmir conflict that the two sides have been engaged in for years. True, both the extent of militant infiltration in Indian territory and, therefore, India's response has been greater than 'usual' but that is not enough reason for war. Pakistani-backed militants can continue their demented jihad and Indian security forces can carry out their often hamhanded response without the generals on either side having to lead their troops into battle. The fourth reason is the Bomb. Officially nuclear-armed now, India and Pakistan know that a full-scale battle will bring the wrath of the global community upon them. Neither can afford diplomatic isolation, and neither can hope that major powers, including China, will take sides. Two poor countries fighting while the world condemns them unequivocally is a spectre that should haunt gung ho types on both sides. However, having said this, one must warn that war is not impossible. Two factors can provoke it. One, the Indian retaliation in Kargil, like Nato's bombing of Kosovo, hits the wrong targets, which in this case means across the line of control, giving Pakistan the 'right' to retaliate. This becomes more important in the fight of the downing of the jets. Second and related, if Islamabad, humiliated that the militants have drawn a strong response from New Delhi, escalates its response along the LoC, which may well have the momentum to turn into a war. Every sane person in both countries will hope neither of this happens. But every Indian must tell their government, and New Delhi must acknowledge it, that the onus lies more with the bigger neighbour. Some may consider this unfair in that the provocation for what is happening Kargil has clearly come from Pakistan, which seems to think that every domestic problem can be solved by "freeing" Kashmir. India, after all, is trying to clear its own territory of elements who have clearly not come in peace. Peaceniks may condemn air strikes as a means but no one can argue New Delhi's response should have been inaction. But despite this, as the more responsible party to the conflict, India, should take the lead in calming tempers and urge moderation. Militarily it must not continue the air strikes beyond what is assessed as the necessary minimum and take the maximum care that bombs don't pummel PoK. Diplomatically, Vajpayee must keep on talking to Nawaz Sharif, send a special envoy if necessary - Jaswant Singh is the best choice. And politically, he must keep jingoistic elements in his party and Parivar at bay. Mr Vajpayee has to face another question: why was there such a major intelligence failure over the infiltration in Kargil? Had that not happened, militants could probably have been tackled without air strikes. And the Prime Minister, among others, would have had an easier time.
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