D Suba Chandran
The Pioneer
June 16, 1999
Title: Motive behind Kargil Author: D Suba Chandran Publication: The Pioneer Date: June 16, 1999 Many misperceptions are afloat as regards the Pakistan intrusion in the Kargil region. First, about the role of the Pakistan Army which many, including Defence Minister George Fernandes, believe is functioning independent of the political leadership. This is not true. The top ranking officials, including the Chief of Army Staff and the director of the Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), were handpicked by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif superceding many others. Besides, to aid an intrusion of this magnitude, it would have taken careful preparation which could not have taken place without the knowledge of the Pakistani Prime Minister. Second, the objective behind the infiltration is seen as a deliberate attempt on the part of Pakistan to sabotage the positive steps taken by both the countries in the recent period (especially the Lahore Declaration), because it has put the Kashmir issue on the back-burner. The question is why would Sharif want to undermine the Lahore Declaration. Neither is Sharif under pressure from the fundamentalists, who are against any rapproachement with India, nor is there any personal benefit for him in doing so. The Pakistani Premier only stands to gain nationally and internationally by continuing the dialogue. Besides, the Lahore Declaration says that both the governments have agreed to "intensify their efforts to resolve all issues, including the issue of Jammu and Kashmir". Sharif would rather put to use the Declaration to discuss the Kashmir issue than ruin it. Another misperception is that the infiltration was to divert the attention of the Pakistan people, because of internal problems faced by Nawaz Sharif. The simple reason that this operation would have been thought well in advance negates such thinking. The attention of the nation has already been greatly diverted by the continuing floods in Sindh, which has so far killed thousands of people in the region. Given the circumstances, the current strategy of Pakistan appears to be in continuation with its larger goal of internationalising the Kashmir issue. The immediate reaction of Pakistan after the Indian efforts to get rid of the militants from its soil proves this point. Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz requested the United Nation Secretary General Kofi Annan to send a special representative who could "reduce the ongoing tension. And this could also lead to an increase in the presence of UN military observers". Later, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif sent a letter to the UN Secretary General, in which the former stated that the rejection of third party involvement in the Kashmir dispute negated the global trend for peaceful settlement of conflicts. Thus the move of Pakistan seems to be aimed at raising the Kashmir issue to such a pitch that they can once again call for either UN intervention or third party mediation. The second strategy seems to be implied in the first one by making India retaliate militarily, so that the issue could be internationalised. The fact that the infiltrators were armed with stinger missiles proves that they had anticipated air strikes as well. The third reason for Pakistan could be to give a boost to insurgency in Kashmir. In the recent past, the insurgency situation in Kashmir has been brought well under control, through continuous Army operations. Life in Kashmir was returning to normal and the tourism industry in the State has been picking up steadily in the recent past. If the situation in Kashmir remained calm for long, it would have been difficult for Pakistan to win global support on the issue. Hence it became essential for them to create trouble inside Kashmir. Pakistan's idea is to make Kashmir as the "nuclear flashpoint" of the Sub-continent. With both the countries becoming nuclear powers, and a section of analysts believing that any small clash between "immature" India and Pakistan would eventually result into a nuclear holocaust, Pakistan expects that the global pressure will increase on India to immediately solve the Kashmir issue. Pakistan's Foreign Minister too referred Kashmir in these terms and felt that solving the dispute was essential for the peace and stability of the region. The recent events show that Pakistan has succeeded in bringing the issue to international notice. At the strategic level, Pakistan's expectations would probably be to keep the focus of India and its Army on a particular area - Kargil. If the Indian forces are going to place its troops from all along the LoC and to areas surrounding Kargil, it would be easier for the militants to infiltrate through other entry points. The second strategic objective would be to control the NH-1A, the national highway from Srinagar to Leh. Pakistan is well aware that the militants cannot hold the highway for a long period, because of Indian Army operations and the international pressure. But even if the militants control the highway for a short period, it would be sufficient to open the diplomatic channel, with international pressure on India to negotiate with Pakistan. By doing so, it re-opens the Kashmir issue and also take the credit for striving for peace in the Sub-continent. The fact that Nawaz Sharif took the initiative in sending his Foreign Minister to India collaborates this assumption. At a broader level, the ISI could also infiltrate into other parts of India when the entire nation's attention is focused on Kargil. This way, the ISI can increase its activities elsewhere in India through aiding various fundamental groups, especially in the South. Only the next few weeks will determine how far Pakistan has succeeded in its objectives.
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