Motive behind Kargil
D Suba Chandran
The Pioneer
June 16, 1999
Title: Motive behind Kargil
Author: D Suba Chandran
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: June 16, 1999
Many misperceptions are afloat as regards the Pakistan intrusion in
the Kargil region. First, about the role of the Pakistan Army which
many, including Defence Minister George Fernandes, believe is
functioning independent of the political leadership. This is not true.
The top ranking officials, including the Chief of Army Staff and the
director of the Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), were handpicked by
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif superceding many others. Besides, to aid
an intrusion of this magnitude, it would have taken careful
preparation which could not have taken place without the knowledge of
the Pakistani Prime Minister.
Second, the objective behind the infiltration is seen as a deliberate
attempt on the part of Pakistan to sabotage the positive steps taken
by both the countries in the recent period (especially the Lahore
Declaration), because it has put the Kashmir issue on the back-burner.
The question is why would Sharif want to undermine the Lahore
Declaration. Neither is Sharif under pressure from the
fundamentalists, who are against any rapproachement with India, nor is
there any personal benefit for him in doing so. The Pakistani Premier
only stands to gain nationally and internationally by continuing the
dialogue. Besides, the Lahore Declaration says that both the
governments have agreed to "intensify their efforts to resolve all
issues, including the issue of Jammu and Kashmir". Sharif would rather
put to use the Declaration to discuss the Kashmir issue than ruin it.
Another misperception is that the infiltration was to divert the
attention of the Pakistan people, because of internal problems faced
by Nawaz Sharif. The simple reason that this operation would have been
thought well in advance negates such thinking. The attention of the
nation has already been greatly diverted by the continuing floods in
Sindh, which has so far killed thousands of people in the region.
Given the circumstances, the current strategy of Pakistan appears to
be in continuation with its larger goal of internationalising the
Kashmir issue. The immediate reaction of Pakistan after the Indian
efforts to get rid of the militants from its soil proves this point.
Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz requested the United Nation Secretary
General Kofi Annan to send a special representative who could "reduce
the ongoing tension. And this could also lead to an increase in the
presence of UN military observers".
Later, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif sent a letter to the UN Secretary
General, in which the former stated that the rejection of third party
involvement in the Kashmir dispute negated the global trend for
peaceful settlement of conflicts. Thus the move of Pakistan seems to
be aimed at raising the Kashmir issue to such a pitch that they can
once again call for either UN intervention or third party mediation.
The second strategy seems to be implied in the first one by making
India retaliate militarily, so that the issue could be
internationalised. The fact that the infiltrators were armed with
stinger missiles proves that they had anticipated air strikes as well.
The third reason for Pakistan could be to give a boost to insurgency
in Kashmir. In the recent past, the insurgency situation in Kashmir
has been brought well under control, through continuous Army
operations. Life in Kashmir was returning to normal and the tourism
industry in the State has been picking up steadily in the recent past.
If the situation in Kashmir remained calm for long, it would have been
difficult for Pakistan to win global support on the issue. Hence it
became essential for them to create trouble inside Kashmir.
Pakistan's idea is to make Kashmir as the "nuclear flashpoint" of the
Sub-continent. With both the countries becoming nuclear powers, and a
section of analysts believing that any small clash between "immature"
India and Pakistan would eventually result into a nuclear holocaust,
Pakistan expects that the global pressure will increase on India to
immediately solve the Kashmir issue. Pakistan's Foreign Minister too
referred Kashmir in these terms and felt that solving the dispute was
essential for the peace and stability of the region. The recent events
show that Pakistan has succeeded in bringing the issue to
international notice.
At the strategic level, Pakistan's expectations would probably be to
keep the focus of India and its Army on a particular area - Kargil. If
the Indian forces are going to place its troops from all along the LoC
and to areas surrounding Kargil, it would be easier for the militants
to infiltrate through other entry points. The second strategic
objective would be to control the NH-1A, the national highway from
Srinagar to Leh. Pakistan is well aware that the militants cannot hold
the highway for a long period, because of Indian Army operations and
the international pressure. But even if the militants control the
highway for a short period, it would be sufficient to open the
diplomatic channel, with international pressure on India to negotiate
with Pakistan. By doing so, it re-opens the Kashmir issue and also
take the credit for striving for peace in the Sub-continent. The fact
that Nawaz Sharif took the initiative in sending his Foreign Minister
to India collaborates this assumption.
At a broader level, the ISI could also infiltrate into other parts of
India when the entire nation's attention is focused on Kargil. This
way, the ISI can increase its activities elsewhere in India through
aiding various fundamental groups, especially in the South. Only the
next few weeks will determine how far Pakistan has succeeded in its
objectives.
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