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Was Indo-Pak peace summit
a success for India?
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Was Indo-Pak peace summit
a success for Pakistan?
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Is Musharraf sincere in solving
the problems between India and Pakistan?
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Can India and Pakistan ever
solve their problems?
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Should India discuss the Kashmir
issue with Pakistan at all?
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India should not concede anything
till the cross-border terrorism continues?
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Which country used the media better?
India 74%
Pakistan 20%
Who performed better at the summit?
Vajpayee 77%
Musharraf 20%
Don’t worry about great expectations when India and Pakistan get together to talk of cabbages and kings. Media and government can beat the drum as hard as they like — the Indian public knows a summit between these two rivals will yield less not more. However, the majority also believe that despite all this, New Delhi and Islamabad need to keep talking.
Hence the seeming contradiction brought to light by an opinion poll done by TNS Mode for the Hindustan Times. Indians are pretty much split in half as to whether India and Pakistan can ever resolve their problems. But a solid majority of 63 per cent want the two to keep talking.
Which is why, after the dust raised from Agra has settled, most Indians don’t think that a clear winner emerged from the summit. And contrary to what the chattering classes may think, they’re also relatively positive about Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s performance during the summit. Vajpayee’s Teflon dhoti remains in place.
In a poll of 841 respondents from four metros — Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata and Mumbai — of different ages, gender and economic background, a solid 77 per cent said India did not succeed in Agra. Chennai was the most positive — nearly a third of respondents there felt India had done well at Agra. Mumbai was the least with an 83 per cent negative vote.
But contrary to what many commentators have said, 71 per cent of all respondents said Agra had also been a failure for Pakistan — despite talk of Pervez Musharraf having scored heavily in the media and earned laurels from the right wingers back home. Indians recognise that peace is not a zero-sum game. However, about a third of Delhiites felt Pakistan had won Agra — much more than in other cities.
The Indian government can be less defensive about Agra after this poll. Vajpayee received a mild endorsement: 56 per cent of Indians rated his performance at Agra as Good or Excellent. Curiously, Kolkatans gave the lowest grades with 63 per cent saying Vajpayee’s performance was Average or Poor. And in a straight choice between him and the General, 77 per cent of Indians declared him the victor of Agra. Delhi was the most sceptical: only two-thirds said Vajpayee was the better performer.
But the Prime Minister should be pleased. Despite his Taj Mahal tour, his wardrobe and his breakfast with the editors, Indians gave Musharraf a dismal summit performance with only 31 per cent giving him Good or Excellent ratings. His scores were particularly poor with Mumbaikars, and highest among Delhiites.
And Indians continue to distrust the General. An HT poll before Agra had said about two-thirds of Indians didn’t trust the dictator. After Agra, a little more (70 per cent) believe Musharraf is insincere about solving the problems bedeviling the two countries. Only Chennai was willing to give him a chance: 40 per cent of respondents there thought the Pakistani leader was genuinely interested in peace.
One surprise for the experts’ brigade was the public response to the question: Which country used the media better. Despite Pakistan’s on-air press conferences, media leaks and breakfast TV stunts, the overwhelming view (74 per cent) was India had been the media star. But there were some stark regional discrepancies here. Delhiites and Kolkatans joined hands to give India low ratings. In these two cities, only 67 per cent and 56 per cent, respectively, said India won the media battle. Mumbai and Chennai put the numbers in the high eighties.
Consider two contrasting stances on Kashmir. When asked whether India should discuss Kashmir with Pakistan, 67 per cent of Indians said Yes. When asked whether India should recognize Kashmir as the main cause of bilateral friction between the two countries, “as demanded by Pakistan”, 61 per cent said No. And to top it off, 76 per cent of all respondents said India should concede nothing to Pakistan until Islamabad stopped cross-border terrorism.
One interpretation of this is that the common India understands the difference between ground realities and tough negotiating positions. In other words, they know Kashmir is the first and foremost reason why the two South Asian countries don’t get along. However, they don’t believe India should concede that diplomatically or legally. And it is Pakistan that needs to establish its peace credentials first — by curbing support for militancy.
Geographical distance from Kashmir seems to have some impact on opinion in India. By a few points, Delhi was more inclined to feel India should recognize that Kashmir is the key. Chennai and Kolkata, the two cities furthest from the troubled valley, saw the strongest support for holding discussions on Kashmir with Pakistan. These two cities were also more willing, by a few percentage points, to tie everything to an end to cross-border terrorism. However, there were solid majorities in every city for the national opinion on all three points.
As to the future, the city of Mumbai stood out as the most negative among the four metropolises. Only 38 per cent of Mumbaikars wanted Vajpayee to continue peace talks with Musharraf — the only city where supporters for further talks were a minority. All-India the figure was 63 per cent in favour of continuing peace talks.
But Mumbaikars were surprisingly beaten by Kolkatans when it came to the more abstract question of whether Indo-Pakistani problems can ever be resolved. Only 41 per cent of the Mumbai respondents believed the two countries could ever come to terms while a mere 37 per cent of Kolkatans felt the same. Delhi and Chennai had moderate majorities who took a more positive point of view. But this split meant that, all India, the vote was split in half.
The Indian government may take some solace in the fact that most Indians seem to have taken Agra’s non-summit and Musharraf’s media antics in their stride. The Bharatiya Janata Party may have less to cheer about as the two cities near their centres of support — Delhi and Mumbai — seem to take a dimmer view of Agra, Vajpayee’s performance and Indo-Pakistani relations in general.
One final note: there remains a
consensus on foreign policy, especially when it comes to Pakistan, between
classes, genders and, more or less, regions. The polls showed almost no
difference between rich and poor in their assessments of Agra and even
less between men and women. When it comes to their neighbour to the West,
Indians have learnt to not expect too much good news but accept that some
news is better than no news at all.
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