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Introduction: The Left has given a two-week ultimatum to the Congress-led UPA: drop FDI in insurance and divestment in NTPC. Looks like the Left is the boss
Who is the dominant partner in the United Progressive Alliance? Is it the Congress whose leaders keep on saying that the nation has given them the mandate to rule?
The Congress with some allies like the RJD and the DMK has formed the government. The coalition compulsions have forced it to accommodate criminal, in its cabinet. Mrs. Sonia Gandhi or Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who have a clean personal and political record cannot be, are not, happy about it. These two allies are putting pressure on the Congress and are extracting from it maximum possible concessions.
The DMK has been able to get as many as seven important berths in the cabinet after its leader Karunanidhi posed a threat not to join the coalition, the threat worked: the Congress cannot do without the support of DMK. The party is fully exploiting its position in the UPA. It has been, for instance, able to end the wrangling with regard to the release of water from the Kaveri river. The chief minister of Karnataka was ordered by the centre to release water to Tamil Nadu. There was prompt response and water has been sent to Tamil Nadu. There is likely to be more demands by the DMK with the passing of each day. It is clear the party plays a big role in running the country.
Criminal record
And the RJD too has been able to get many concessions. Its leader, whose criminal record is causing problems in the parliament has become the railway minister. There are other RJD 'tainted' members who have been able to get important berths. And in the budget presented by Mr. Chidambaram there is a hefty financial package - Rs.3,000 crore - for Bihar. Other states too have been given funds, but Bihar has got the lion's share. But for the compulsions of coalition, the Congress would not have agreed to give the special package to Bihar. The RJD with control in the state and also at the centre is in a strong position to have a big say in running the country.
As the DMK has provided proof, if things do not go their way, these two major allies can create problems for the Congress.
But it is the Left parties which hold the ace - all the time.
And now they have declared, if need be, they will rock the UPA boat.
Says Marxist leader Sitaram Yechury: "When we bite, we bite very strongly and that is something I hope the government does not want to learn the hard way. We will not be responsible for the fall of the government, but the government has to ensure that they themselves are not responsible for their fall. If they are not sincere about implementing what they themselves agreed to in the CMP, yes, the situation will unfortunately arise."
He has made it plain that two of the measures of the government - proposed FDI increase in insurance, airports and the divestment of the five per cent stake in state- owned NTPC are certain to provoke the Left parties to try and bring down the government.
It is a challenge to the Congress - do it or else...
Is the Congress prepared to go ahead with the proposed measures and attract the stated response of the Left parties? The Left parties are serious - they mean business. Their posture on the two controversial issues is rigid, they are not going to yield an inch and get set for a compromise solution. They have made that clear to the Congress.
What will Mr. Chidambaram do now? Will he give up the proposal to divest five per cent stake in NTPC? Will he agree to drop the proposal with regard to FDI in insurance?
The Congress does not have a choice. It has to do what the Left parties have told them to do.
The Congress has started facing the harsh reality - it has only a minor role to play in running the country.
The Left parties have been quite clever and practical. Their decision not to join the government shows that. They can do a lot of piggy-riding and arm twisting by extending only outside support. What is more, they can preserve their identity.
The Left parties have other complaints as well. They do not want any cut in PF and pension interests. Their stand is certain to increase their popularity in the salaried class and also among government employees. There is a method in their madness. The Left is an enemy of the Congress in Kerala and West Bengal. It routed the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections in Kerala? It wants to keep its image intact. Support to Congress policies would destroy its chances in the two states.
And by being the champions of the underdogs, it is gaining popularity in other parts of the country as well.
The Left has given the Congress a two-week ultimatum.
The Congress has to decide whether to go ahead with its FDI and divestment proposals or drop them.
If it wants itself and the UPA to survive, it has to carry out the Left orders.
The BJP has made it clear it is not going to support the Congress with regard to its divestment proposals. The BJP is all for disinvestment, but now political considerations make it change its stand. Naturally it will be happy if the UPA falls.
Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and Mr. Manmohan Singh seem to be in deep trouble. They are painfully realising that they cannot carry out the Congress policies.
At every step, the communists are building road blocks.
The communists are only concerned about implementing their own agenda.
They have also different views on foreign policy of the government. For instance, they are for "equi-distant tactics". They do not want close relations with capitalist America. They would like to break the close rapport which the BJP built up with the United States. About the issues of sending our soldiers to Iraq, our relations with Russia, the European Union and Israel, they have different views.
The Congress is being held with a Left leash.
It cannot implement its own policies and programmes. It is putting on a brave front, even as the communists are coming out with inconvenient and embarrassing proposals.
Private enterprise
How long will the UPA last? How long will the Congress put up with continuing interference and pressures by the Left parties? The Congress is under pressure and under threat. Its hands are tied.
The reforms with "human" or "inhuman' face are not likely to take place. The Congress is all set for reforms and it is not opposed to private enterprise. It is not opposed to liberalisation of economy.
The BJP is waiting hopefully in the wings - ready to grab an opportunity to topple the government and go for mid-term elections. In case the Congress rejects the Left proposals, the BJP will not help the Congress to survive.
The Congress is desperately dependent on the Left support. The Left leaders are fully aware of the situation and making capital out of it.
When they have a final say in all
state affairs, when without them, the Congress can do precious little.
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